Uganda: Country Report | 2024
AI Generated Analysis based on UNHCR Forced Displacement Statisitics.
Executive Summary
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Key Trends: Uganda Displacement Report 2024
A world in turmoil is reflected in the profound humanitarian crisis unfolding in Uganda, which is now contending with an unprecedented population of over five million people of concern. This stark figure comprises two immense, parallel challenges: a protracted refugee crisis of 1.76 million people and a vast internal displacement crisis affecting 3.2 million Ugandans. The primary driver of new cross-border displacement is the unrelenting violence in the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo, with the Congolese refugee population now surpassing one million—the largest single group hosted in the country.
Amid this escalating crisis, Uganda continues to shoulder a disproportionate share of regional responsibility. Its generous open-door policy and asylum systems are under immense strain, evidenced by new protection claims consistently outpacing decision-making capacity. This pressure is compounded by the demographic reality on the ground: a significant youth bulge across all displaced populations creates acute and ongoing needs for education, child protection, and health services, stretching host community resources to their absolute limit.
The pathway to durable solutions, meanwhile, has become increasingly narrow. While concerted efforts led to a remarkable peak in solutions in 2021, this progress has unfortunately reversed. By 2024, the number of new refugees far outpaced the 15,122 solutions recorded, demonstrating a widening and critical gap. This sobering trend underscores that temporary, project-based initiatives are insufficient to resolve protracted displacement.
The data is unequivocal: the scale of forced displacement in and around Uganda is overwhelming the available resources for protection and solutions. Sustained, predictable, and robust international support is no longer just a matter of solidarity; it is a critical investment in regional stability and the preservation of human dignity for millions.
Population Overview
Demographics
AI Insight: Treemap of Population of Concern types in Uganda, where Internally Displaced Persons represent the vast majority of the 5 million individuals., This treemap displays the composition of the 5,007,000 individuals categorized as Population of Concern in Uganda for 2024. The data is broken down into seven distinct population types, with the size of each rectangle proportional to its population count.
A detailed statistical analysis reveals a highly skewed distribution. The largest single group, Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs), numbers 3,200,000, accounting for approximately 64% of the total. This dominance is highlighted by the contrast between the mean population size (715,269) and the much smaller median (10,284), indicating that most other categories are significantly smaller. The data also specifies a count of 15,122 for Returned Refugees and 0 for Returned IDPs. The visualization effectively illustrates that while Uganda hosts several types of populations of concern, the scale of internal displacement is the most significant demographic feature.
AI Insight: Population pyramid of male and female populations of concern by age group in Uganda, where the population is predominantly young with the largest cohort being children aged 0-4 and a slightly larger female population overall., This population pyramid visualizes the age and gender distribution of 27,005,912 individuals of concern to UNHCR in Uganda as of 2024. The population includes refugees, asylum-seekers, internally displaced persons, and other persons of concern.
The chart displays a classic expansive pyramid shape, characterized by a very wide base and a narrow top, indicating a young and rapidly growing population. The largest demographic segment for both genders is the 0-4 age group, which comprises approximately 22.8% of the female population and 20.1% of the male population. The population size progressively decreases with each subsequent older age group.
Statistically, there is a slight majority of females in the population. The data shows that across all age groups, the average proportion of the population is 10.2% for females and 9.8% for males. The working-age population (18-59) is significantly smaller than the child population (0-17), highlighting a high dependency ratio. The smallest cohort is the elderly population, aged 60 and over.
The demographic structure underscores a significant youth bulge, implying a critical need for resources focused on child protection, education, and maternal and child health services. The gender imbalance, though slight, is an important factor for planning targeted gender-specific interventions.
Trends Over Time
AI Insight: A column chart of population types in Uganda from 2019 to 2024, where refugees and people in refugee-like situations consistently constitute the largest group by a significant margin., This column chart details the composition of populations of concern in Uganda, presenting annual data from 2019 to 2024. The data is broken down into six categories: Refugees and people in refugee-like situations, Asylum-seekers, Returned refugees, Stateless persons, Internally displaced persons (IDPs), and Others of concern. The vertical axis represents the number of people in thousands.
A key finding from the data is the overwhelming scale of the refugee population, which reaches a maximum of 1,759,492 individuals in one of the years, making it the dominant category. The second-largest group is returned refugees, with a peak count of 184,917. In contrast, the data for returned IDPs is consistently zero across all years. The statistical distribution is highly skewed, with 75% of the data points falling below 49,291 people, underscoring how most categories represent significantly smaller populations compared to the main refugee group. The chart effectively visualizes Uganda’s role as a major host country for refugees in the region.
AI Insight: Diverging bar chart of population changes in Uganda by group from 2023 to 2024, where the refugee population increased by over 180,000 while the asylum-seeker population decreased by over 56,000., This diverging bar chart illustrates the increases and decreases in six UNHCR population groups in Uganda between the start of 2023 and the start of 2024, showing both the absolute number and the percentage change for each.
Key changes are as follows:
Increases: - Refugees and people in refugee-like situations: Experienced the largest growth, increasing by 181,994 people, which represents a 12% rise. - Returnees: Increased by 5,142 people, a 1% change. - Internally displaced persons (IDPs): Saw a small increase of 3,284 people, equivalent to a 0.2% change.
Decreases: - Asylum-seekers: Showed the most significant decrease, with the population falling by 56,716 people, a substantial 63% reduction. - Others of concern: Decreased slightly by 414 people, a -1% change.
No Change: - Stateless persons: The number of stateless persons recorded remained unchanged over the period.
Analysis: The data indicates a major shift in the composition of populations of concern in Uganda. The sharp decrease in asylum-seekers coinciding with the large increase in the refugee population strongly suggests that a significant number of asylum claims were processed and granted refugee status during this period. The changes among other groups like IDPs and Returnees were comparatively minor.
AI Insight: Horizontal bar chart of the number of refugees in Uganda in 2024 by top 9 countries of origin, where South Sudan accounts for the vast majority of the population., This horizontal bar chart details the refugee population in Uganda as of 2024, disaggregated by the top nine countries of origin plus a consolidated ‘Others’ category. The data indicates a total of approximately 1.76 million refugees from these origins, with a highly skewed distribution. South Sudan is the single largest country of origin, accounting for 975,020 individuals, which is a significant majority of the total. The median population for an origin group is 39,226, underscoring the substantial difference between the top country and all others. The population counts for the remaining countries range from a 75th percentile of 61,306 down to a minimum of 648. This visualization highlights Uganda’s crucial role as one of Africa’s largest refugee-hosting nations, with regional instability, particularly in neighboring South Sudan, being the primary driver of displacement.
Geography & Movements
Regional Focus: Displacement Dynamics in and around Uganda
The geography of displacement in Africa’s Great Lakes region is starkly illustrated by the dual role of Uganda, which remains one of the continent’s largest refugee-hosting countries while also being a country of origin for others forced to flee. This complex dynamic underscores the intense and interconnected nature of regional instability.
As a major country of asylum, Uganda hosted over 1.7 million refugees and asylum-seekers in 2024. The data reveals that the primary driver of new displacement into Uganda is the unrelenting violence in the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). An analysis of population trends from 2019 to 2025 shows a significant and sustained growth in the number of Congolese refugees, with this population now surpassing 1 million people. This escalating crisis has shifted the demographic landscape, with refugees from the DRC constituting the largest single group in Uganda, far outnumbering the substantial but more stable population of refugees from South Sudan. These two nationalities overwhelmingly represent the refugee population, placing immense strain on Uganda’s resources and protection capacity.
At the same time, Ugandans have also sought safety abroad. The distribution of refugees and asylum-seekers from Uganda reveals a pattern of highly concentrated displacement, reflecting a common trend where the vast majority of the forcibly displaced remain in their region of origin. While 61 countries host Ugandans, the responsibility is far from evenly shared. The data shows that a handful of nations, primarily within Africa, host the vast majority of this population. Behind these numbers, a median of just 22 individuals per host country underscores how a few neighbouring states shoulder a disproportionate share of the protection responsibility.
Taken together, these movements paint a vivid picture of recurrent and localized displacement loops. The crises compelling Congolese and South Sudanese nationals to seek refuge in Uganda, alongside the factors forcing Ugandans to flee to neighbouring countries, highlight the urgent need for comprehensive regional solutions and robust international support for host communities.
AI Insight: Choropleth map of destination countries for refugees and other displaced people from Uganda, where the displacement is highly concentrated in a few African nations., This choropleth map illustrates the global distribution of various displaced populations originating from Uganda as of 2024, including refugees, asylum-seekers, and others of concern to UNHCR.
The analysis is based on data for 241 countries and territories, of which 61 have reported hosting displaced people from Uganda. The distribution of this population is highly concentrated. The number of individuals per host country ranges from 0 to a maximum of 7,064.
Key statistical indicators reveal a significant positive skew in the data: - The median number of persons hosted is 22, meaning half of the destination countries host 22 or fewer individuals. - The mean is substantially higher at 464, pulled up by a few countries with very large populations. - The standard deviation is 1,370, indicating extreme variability from the mean. - 75% of host countries have 137 or fewer people from Uganda.
This statistical profile demonstrates that the responsibility of hosting displaced people from Uganda is not evenly distributed. A small number of countries, likely those in geographical proximity to Uganda, host the vast majority of this population. The map would visually represent this with a few intensely colored countries, indicating high concentrations, while most other countries would appear lightly shaded or uncolored.
Origin of Displaced Populations
AI Insight: Horizontal bar chart of the top 9 countries of origin for refugees in Uganda in 2024, where the population from the top country (975,020) is substantially larger than all other groups combined., This horizontal bar chart presents a breakdown of the refugee population in Uganda by their top nine countries of origin for the year 2024, with a tenth category for ‘Other’. The x-axis represents the number of people, while the y-axis lists the countries.
The data shows a highly skewed distribution, with one country of origin accounting for the vast majority of refugees. The total number of refugees represented across these 10 groups is 1,759,490.
Key statistical insights include: - The largest group consists of 975,020 individuals. - The population counts range from this maximum down to a minimum of 648. - The distribution is heavily concentrated at the top: the mean number of people per origin group is 175,949, which is significantly inflated by the top group, while the median is much lower at 39,226. - 75% of the origin groups have populations of 61,306 or fewer, highlighting the scale of the largest single group in comparison to the others.
AI Insight: Alluvial diagram of forcibly displaced populations in Uganda by country of origin from 2019 to 2025, where the population from the Democratic Republic of the Congo shows significant growth and becomes the largest group., This alluvial diagram tracks the number of forcibly displaced people (in thousands) in Uganda by their country of origin for each year between 2019 and 2025. The visualization shows that the refugee and asylum-seeker population is dominated by individuals from the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and South Sudan. The population from the DRC, represented by a steadily widening band, shows a significant and consistent increase over the period, climbing from a large initial figure to over 1 million people by 2025. In contrast, the population from South Sudan remains substantial but relatively stable. Other represented countries of origin, including Burundi, Somalia, and Eritrea, constitute much smaller proportions of the total, appearing as thin, stable flows at the bottom of the chart. Statistically, the dataset includes six origin countries, with population values for a single group ranging from approximately 14,500 to a maximum of 1,016,247, highlighting the concentration of refugees from a few key nations due to regional instability.
Destination
AI Insight: Bar chart of the top 10 destination countries for forcibly displaced people from Uganda as of 2024, where one country hosts a vastly larger population than all others combined., This vertical bar chart displays the top 10 destination countries for people forcibly displaced from Uganda, current as of 2024. The data reveals a highly skewed distribution. A total of 8,090,440 displaced individuals are represented across these ten countries. The primary destination country hosts 5,226,840 people, accounting for approximately 65% of the total in this dataset. The remaining nine countries host significantly fewer people, with the second-highest count being below 675,000. The median number of displaced people per country is 96,096, highlighting the vast difference between the top destination and the others. The smallest population shown is 36,054. This visualization underscores the immense and disproportionate responsibility placed on a single asylum country for this population group.
Asylum System
The State of National Asylum Systems
The effectiveness and capacity of national asylum systems remain a cornerstone of the international protection regime, yet they are under unprecedented strain. The situation in Uganda, one of the world’s largest refugee-hosting countries, provides a compelling case study of both the generosity of host communities and the immense operational challenges they face.
The data reveals that Uganda’s asylum system in 2024 was defined by large-scale influxes from neighbouring crises, particularly South Sudan and the Democratic Republic of the Congo. The vast majority of these cases were assessed on a prima facie basis, a mechanism for group determination that acknowledges the evident risks in their countries of origin. This approach led to a high overall refugee recognition rate of 82 per cent. However, recognition rates varied significantly for nationals of other countries, ranging from 28 to 89 per cent for the top ten nationalities, reflecting the different protection needs and individual assessment pathways.
Behind these high recognition rates lies the immense pressure on the system. Although the number of new annual applications has moderated since a peak in 2021-2022, cumulative data shows that new claims have consistently outpaced the capacity to render decisions. This has resulted in a significant and widening gap of pending cases by 2024, placing a heavy burden on national resources and prolonging uncertainty for asylum-seekers.
The data also illuminates the inconsistent nature of asylum outcomes globally. For Ugandan nationals seeking protection abroad, their prospects in 2024 fluctuated dramatically depending on the country of asylum, with recognition rates ranging from as low as 2 per cent to as high as 80 per cent. This stark disparity underscores how an individual’s access to international protection is often determined not only by the merits of their claim but also by the geography of their flight, highlighting the urgent need for a more consistent and equitable application of refugee law worldwide.
AI Insight: Bar chart of asylum applications and decisions in Uganda from 2019 to 2024, where the total number of cases peaked in the middle of the period before declining., This bar chart displays the annual totals for asylum applications and decisions in Uganda for the period 2019 through 2024. The data is categorized by the stage of the asylum process. The vertical y-axis represents the total count of cases, while the horizontal x-axis represents the years.
Statistically, the data covers 21 observations across 7 years and 3 asylum stages. The total number of cases in any given category and year ranges from a minimum of 1,759 to a maximum of 54,173. The average (mean) number of cases is 26,978, with a median of 28,573, indicating a concentration of activity in the higher range during the period. The overall trend suggests a significant increase in asylum-related activities after 2019, peaking around 2021-2022, and then showing a decrease towards 2024. This fluctuation is critical for understanding operational capacity and resource allocation. As noted in the subtitle, these figures represent the number of applications processed, and it is possible for one individual to have multiple applications, so the data does not reflect unique individuals.
AI Insight: A parallel sets plot of Refugee Status Determination decisions in Uganda for 2024, where the majority of applicants, primarily from South Sudan and the Democratic Republic of Congo, are granted refugee status., This parallel sets plot visualizes the outcomes of 491,047 Refugee Status Determination (RSD) decisions recorded in Uganda during 2024. The diagram illustrates the flow of asylum applications from their country of origin, through the basis of their application, to the final decision.
The chart is structured into three vertical axes representing the stages of the process: 1. Country of Origin: The largest cohort of applicants originates from South Sudan (254,411 individuals), followed by the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) with 169,447 individuals. A smaller group comes from Eritrea (45,066), with other nationalities comprising the remainder. 2. Basis of Decision: The vast majority of applications from South Sudan and DRC are processed on a prima facie (group determination) basis. Applications from other countries are more commonly handled through individual RSD procedures. 3. Final RSD Outcome: The most significant outcome is the granting of refugee status, with 401,232 individuals being recognized (approximately 82% of all decisions). The flow shows that most prima facie applicants from South Sudan and DRC are granted this status. Other outcomes include ‘Rejected’ (51,462 cases) and ‘Otherwise Closed’ (38,353 cases), which may occur if an applicant withdraws their claim or cannot be reached.
In summary, the data clearly shows that Uganda’s RSD process in 2024 was dominated by large-scale, prima facie recognition of refugees from neighboring conflict-affected countries, while a smaller proportion of cases were assessed individually, leading to more varied outcomes.
AI Insight: Area chart of cumulative asylum applications and decisions in Uganda by year, where the gap between applications and decisions widens over time, indicating a growing backlog as of 2024., This area chart visualizes the cumulative number of asylum applications versus the cumulative number of first-instance decisions in Uganda for the period starting in 2020. The x-axis represents the timeline in years, and the y-axis shows the cumulative total of cases.
The chart displays two overlapping areas: a larger area for total cumulative applications and a smaller area within it for total cumulative decisions. The vertical distance between the top line of the applications area and the top line of the decisions area represents the ‘gap’—the number of cases pending a first-instance decision.
Key statistical observations indicate that the number of applications has consistently outpaced the number of decisions rendered. The data shows a range of cumulative cases from approximately 33,000 to over 203,000. The primary insight is the significant and increasing backlog in the asylum processing system. Annotations on the chart highlight that this gap, which represents pending cases, has widened considerably by 2024, implying a substantial increase in the average processing time for asylum seekers.
Recognition Rates
AI Insight: Vertical bar chart of Refugee Recognition Rate by Country of Origin in Uganda for 2024, where recognition rates for the top 10 countries of origin range from 28% to 89%., This vertical bar chart displays the refugee recognition rates in Uganda for 2024, focusing on the top 10 countries of origin with the highest number of total asylum decisions. The vertical axis represents the recognition rate as a percentage, while the horizontal axis lists the countries.
Statistically, the data covers 10 countries. The recognition rates vary significantly, with a minimum of 27.6% and a maximum of 88.9%. The average recognition rate across these countries is 65.2%, while the median rate is slightly higher at 73.6%, suggesting that some countries with a large volume of decisions may have rates below the median.
The total number of decisions made per country ranges from 781 to 190,603, and the number of individuals recognized as refugees ranges from 245 to 169,447. It is important to note that the countries are ordered by the total volume of decisions, not by the recognition rate itself. The data also indicates that no individuals from these cohorts were granted Complementary Protection.
AI Insight: Column chart of the 2024 Refugee Recognition Rate for nationals from Uganda by the top 10 countries of asylum, where the rates vary significantly from as low as 1.9% to as high as 79.8%., This column chart displays the 2024 refugee recognition rates for asylum seekers from Uganda, focusing on the ten countries of asylum with the highest total number of decisions processed. The countries are ordered on the chart by the total volume of decisions made, not by the recognition rate.
The analysis reveals a significant disparity in outcomes for Ugandan nationals depending on the country of asylum. Across these ten countries, the average refugee recognition rate is 26.3%, with a high standard deviation of 24.3%, indicating extreme variability. The rates range from a minimum of 1.9% in one country to a maximum of 79.8% in another.
Statistically, the total number of decisions per country also varies widely, from 932 to 18,651. The total number of individuals recognized as refugees ranged from 20 to 4,914 per country. When including complementary forms of protection, the average total recognition rate rises slightly to 29.2%. This data underscores that an asylum seeker’s likelihood of receiving protection is heavily influenced by the country in which they seek asylum, even among the countries processing the most applications.
Solutions
The Complex Path to Durable Solutions
The pursuit of durable solutions remains the ultimate goal of international protection, yet the path to achieving them is often fraught with complexity and marked by fluctuating progress. An analysis of solutions data from Uganda between 2019 and 2025 provides a compelling, albeit sobering, case study of both immense achievement and the fragility of such gains.
The data reveals a period of extraordinary progress, culminating in 2021 when a remarkable 184,917 individuals found a durable solution. This peak represents a more than tenfold increase from the 15,651 solutions recorded just two years prior in 2019. This significant spike, which far exceeded the 19,551 new refugee recognitions in the same year, points to the successful implementation of a large-scale initiative, likely a comprehensive data verification exercise or a facilitated voluntary repatriation programme. For a brief but significant period, the number of people finding a pathway out of displacement dramatically outpaced the number of new arrivals seeking protection.
However, behind these encouraging peak figures lies a challenging trend. Following 2021, the number of solutions entered a steep and consistent decline, falling to 85,660 in 2022 and further to just 15,122 by 2024. The data shows the trend reverting to a familiar pattern: by 2024, the 28,573 new refugee recognitions once again significantly outpaced the number of solutions recorded.
This constitutes a critical insight into the nature of solutions today. The case of Uganda demonstrates that while concerted efforts backed by political will and resources can yield significant results, such gains are often tied to specific programmes with finite timelines. The subsequent decline underscores the persistent gap between the scale of ongoing displacement and the availability of sustainable, long-term solutions. It highlights the critical need for sustained international investment and political commitment to ensure that progress is not only achieved but maintained in the face of new and protracted crises.
AI Insight: Column chart of solutions for forcibly displaced people in Uganda from 2019 to 2025, where the number of solutions peaked dramatically in 2021 and has since been in decline., This column chart displays the annual trends in durable solutions for forcibly displaced people in Uganda for the period 2019 to 2025. The y-axis represents the number of individuals who found a solution, while the x-axis represents the year.
Statistical Analysis: The data shows a significant fluctuation in the number of solutions over the years. - In 2019, there were 3,913 solutions. - This number increased substantially to 18,559 in 2020. - The trend peaked in 2021 with 46,229 solutions, the highest point in the observed period. - Following the peak, the numbers began a steep decline, falling to 21,415 in 2022. - The downward trend continued with 5,931 solutions in 2023, 3,780 in 2024, and 896 in 2025.
Key Insight: The most prominent feature is the sharp spike in 2021, suggesting a major event or program that facilitated a large number of durable solutions for displaced people in Uganda. This was followed by an equally sharp and consistent decrease in subsequent years, indicating a return to lower levels or the conclusion of the specific initiative.
AI Insight: Dual-line chart of refugee recognitions and available solutions in Uganda from 2019 to 2025, where the number of solutions dramatically peaked and far surpassed new recognitions in 2021., This time-series chart compares the annual number of refugee recognitions with the number of available durable solutions in Uganda for the period 2019 to 2025.
Analysis of Refugee Recognitions: The number of new refugee recognitions began at 46,154 in 2019. It then dropped significantly to 17,301 in 2020, followed by a period of fluctuation: 19,551 in 2021, rising to 30,118 in 2022, and decreasing again to 19,414 in 2023. The figure for 2024 is 28,573, with a much lower figure of 1,759 for 2025, which likely represents partial or projected data.
Analysis of Solutions: The number of solutions started at 15,651 in 2019, lower than the recognitions for that year. However, it surged dramatically over the next two years, reaching 74,237 in 2020 and peaking at an exceptional 184,917 in 2021. Following this peak, the number of solutions declined sharply to 85,660 in 2022 and continued to fall to 23,725 in 2023 and 15,122 in 2024, returning to levels similar to 2019. The 2025 figure is 3,583, also likely partial data.
Comparative Insight: The most significant insight is the relationship between the two metrics. While new recognitions exceeded solutions in 2019, the trend reversed from 2020 to 2023, when solutions substantially outpaced recognitions. The gap was largest in 2021, with over 165,000 more solutions than recognitions. This suggests a major event or program, such as a large-scale voluntary repatriation or a data verification exercise, took place. By 2024, the trend reversed once more, with recognitions again exceeding the number of available solutions.
Data Table: | Year | Recognitions | Solutions | |——|————–|———–| | 2019 | 46,154 | 15,651 | | 2020 | 17,301 | 74,237 | | 2021 | 19,551 | 184,917 | | 2022 | 30,118 | 85,660 | | 2023 | 19,414 | 23,725 | | 2024 | 28,573 | 15,122 | | 2025 | 1,759 | 3,583 |
