Turkey: Country Report | 2024

AI Generated Analysis based on UNHCR Forced Displacement Statisitics.

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Executive Summary

Of course. Here is the ‘Key Trends’ executive summary for the High Commissioner.

Population Overview

Türkiye: A Sustained Commitment to Protection

Türkiye continues to host one of the largest refugee populations globally, providing protection to some 3.1 million people of concern to UNHCR by the start of 2024. The data reveals a population overwhelmingly composed of refugees and those in refugee-like situations, who constitute over 95 per cent of the total. Behind these stark numbers lies a story of protracted displacement, primarily from a single crisis. The vast majority originate from the Syrian Arab Republic, with nearly 3 million Syrians living under a temporary protection framework. This is supplemented by smaller refugee populations from countries including Afghanistan, Iraq, and Iran.

The demographic profile of the forcibly displaced population in Türkiye is markedly youthful. A wide base on the population pyramid indicates a significant proportion of children and young adults, highlighting the long-term nature of displacement and the needs of a new generation born in exile. This expansive age structure underscores the critical and sustained requirement for targeted services such as education, child protection, and maternal healthcare, as well as future challenges and opportunities related to youth integration and employment.

While the overall scale of displacement hosted by Türkiye remains immense, the period between early 2023 and 2024 saw a notable decrease in the refugee population by over 310,000 individuals, an 11 per cent reduction. This constitutes a significant demographic shift, likely influenced by a combination of factors including onward movements to third countries, voluntary repatriation, and updates to registration data. In contrast, other smaller populations of concern, such as asylum-seekers and stateless persons, saw minor increases. Despite this recent decrease, the fundamental reality persists: Türkiye’s substantial and long-standing role as a major host country, and the extensive protection needs of the predominantly young, displaced population it shelters, remain central to the region’s humanitarian landscape.

Demographics

AI Insight: Treemap of the population of concern in Türkiye by type, where refugees make up the overwhelming majority of the 3.1 million total individuals., This treemap visualizes the composition of the 3,095,000 individuals of concern to UNHCR in Türkiye as of 2024. The size of each rectangle is proportional to the population size of the category it represents. The data is dominated by a single category, ‘Refugees and people in refugee-like situations’, which numbers 2,940,735 individuals and constitutes over 95% of the total. The remaining population, totaling 154,265 individuals, is distributed across six much smaller categories, including asylum-seekers, stateless persons, and others of concern. This stark distribution highlights Türkiye’s role as a major host country, with its population of concern being almost entirely composed of refugees.

AI Insight: Population pyramid of forcibly displaced and stateless populations in Türkiye by age and gender, where the population is predominantly young with a slight majority of males., This population pyramid displays the age and gender structure of 27,429,593 forcibly displaced and stateless individuals in Türkiye as of 2024. The data is highly comprehensive, with 100% of individuals disaggregated by gender.

The pyramid exhibits an expansive shape, characterized by a wide base and progressively narrower bars for older age groups. This structure is indicative of a youthful population with high birth rates and a significant proportion of children and young adults.

Statistically, the population is slightly skewed towards males. The average proportion across the six age groups is 8.59% for males (standard deviation: 0.0903) and 8.08% for females (standard deviation: 0.0830). The distribution pattern across age groups is similar for both genders. The largest single age cohort accounts for 25.1% of the male population and 23.2% of the female population, highlighting a significant youth bulge.

This demographic profile underscores the critical need for targeted services such as education, child protection, and maternal and child healthcare. It also points to future challenges and opportunities related to youth employment and integration as this large cohort transitions into adulthood.

Geography & Movements

Geography & Movements: The Pivotal Role of Türkiye

The geography of displacement continues to be shaped by a few key epicentres, with Türkiye remaining central to multiple displacement dynamics, both as a major host country and as a country of origin and transit. For years, Türkiye has hosted the world’s largest refugee population, a reality underscored by the composition of the nearly 3 million forcibly displaced people within its borders.

The data reveals this situation is overwhelmingly driven by the protracted crisis in the Syrian Arab Republic. Syrian refugees, under a temporary protection regime, constitute the vast majority of the displaced population, dwarfing other, albeit significant, refugee populations from Afghanistan and Iran. An analysis of population flows from 2019 to 2025 highlights a remarkable consistency in this composition, demonstrating the long-term nature of this displacement and the sustained pressure on Türkiye’s protection and social systems.

Alongside its role as a primary country of asylum, Türkiye is also a significant point of departure. This manifests in two distinct movements. First, for refugees and asylum-seekers who are citizens of Türkiye, movement is highly concentrated towards Europe. Germany is the primary destination, hosting nearly 128,000 individuals. The distribution is highly skewed, with a few European nations hosting the vast majority, while most other countries worldwide host fewer than 250 people each.

Behind these numbers, however, lies an even larger trend: the onward movement of forcibly displaced people who were previously hosted in Türkiye. The data reveals a powerful gravitational pull towards a single primary destination country, which now hosts a staggering 2.2 million people who have journeyed onward from Türkiye. This figure constitutes a stark outlier and underscores the immense scale of secondary movements along this critical corridor. Taken together, these complex and intersecting flows illustrate Türkiye’s multifaceted role at the nexus of global displacement, creating significant protection needs both within the country and along the onward routes to Europe and beyond.

AI Insight: Choropleth map of destination countries for refugees and other persons of concern from Türkiye, where the vast majority are hosted in a few European countries, with Germany having the highest concentration., This choropleth map illustrates the global distribution of refugees, asylum-seekers, and other populations of concern originating from Türkiye as of 2024. The data reveals a highly concentrated pattern of displacement, primarily towards Europe.

Statistically, the distribution is extremely right-skewed. Of the 87 countries hosting people from Türkiye, the number of individuals ranges from a minimum of 5 to a maximum of 127,865. The median number of persons per country is only 58, while the mean is significantly higher at 3,070. This large discrepancy highlights that a few countries host a disproportionately large number of individuals. The 75th percentile is at 236 people, indicating that three-quarters of the destination countries host a relatively small population.

The key insight from the map is the concentration of these populations in Western Europe. Germany is the primary destination, hosting the maximum reported value of 127,865 individuals. Other European countries also host significant, though smaller, numbers. In contrast, the majority of the other 86 destination countries across the globe each host fewer than 250 people from Türkiye.

Origin of Displaced Populations

AI Insight: Horizontal bar chart of the top 6 countries of origin for refugees in Türkiye in 2024, where one country of origin accounts for the vast majority of the population, numbering nearly 3 million., This horizontal bar chart displays the number of refugees in Türkiye by their country of origin for 2024, based on the 6 largest populations in the provided dataset. The data reveals a highly skewed distribution. One country of origin is a significant outlier, accounting for 2,901,478 individuals. Contextually, this represents the refugee population from the Syrian Arab Republic under the temporary protection regime. The remaining five refugee populations are substantially smaller, with a median size of 10,071 people. The population sizes for these other groups range from a minimum of 2,354 to a 75th percentile value of 14,126. The extreme difference between the largest group and the others is highlighted by the statistical summary: the mean population is 490,122, while the median is only 10,071. This demonstrates that Türkiye’s refugee population, while diverse, is numerically dominated by a single nationality, reflecting Türkiye’s role as the world’s largest refugee-hosting country, primarily due to the Syrian crisis.

AI Insight: Alluvial diagram of the forcibly displaced population in Türkiye by country of origin from 2019 to 2025, where the Syrian population consistently represents the vast majority, with significantly smaller populations from Afghanistan, Iran, and other origins., This alluvial diagram tracks the number of forcibly displaced people (in thousands) in Türkiye from 2019 to 2025, categorized by their country of origin. The four origin groups shown are Syria, Afghanistan, Iran, and ‘Others’.

The most striking feature is the overwhelming majority of displaced people from Syria, whose population flow is the largest throughout the entire period, peaking at over 3.7 million people. In contrast, the other groups are substantially smaller. The Afghan population is the next largest group, followed by smaller numbers from Iran and the ‘Others’ category. Based on the statistical distribution, where the 75th percentile is approximately 792,000 while the maximum value is 3.7 million, it is clear that the Syrian cohort skews the data significantly. The chart shows relative stability in the composition of the displaced population over the years, with Syria remaining the primary country of origin for those hosted in Türkiye.

Destination

AI Insight: Bar chart of the top 10 destination countries for forcibly displaced people from Türkiye as of 2024, where one country hosts a significantly larger population of over 2.2 million people compared to the other destinations., This vertical bar chart displays the top 10 destination countries for forcibly displaced populations originating from Türkiye, with data as of 2024. Each bar represents a country of asylum, and its height indicates the number of displaced persons hosted.

A statistical analysis of the underlying data for these 10 countries reveals a highly skewed distribution. The number of displaced people per country ranges from 67,672 to a maximum of 2,229,261. The most striking insight is the concentration in a single primary destination, which hosts over 2.2 million people. This figure is a significant outlier, as the median (50th percentile) for the top 10 countries is 186,202. The mean is approximately 413,916, but this is heavily skewed by the top value. Seventy-five percent of these destination countries host fewer than 379,000 people, further emphasizing the disproportionate concentration in the top host country. This highlights a critical focal point for resource allocation, integration support, and protection services for displaced populations from Türkiye.

Asylum System

Navigating Overburdened Asylum Systems

Global asylum systems continue to operate under immense strain, a trend starkly illustrated by the situation in major host countries such as Türkiye. The data reveals a persistent and widening gap between the number of new asylum applications lodged and the capacity of national authorities to adjudicate them. Between 2019 and 2023, the volume of incoming claims consistently outpaced the number of decisions rendered, pointing to an overburdened system. This trend is further confirmed by cumulative data from 2020 to 2024, which shows the gap between total applications and first-instance decisions progressively expanding, resulting in a substantial and growing backlog of pending cases. This accumulation directly translates into prolonged uncertainty and extended waiting periods for individuals and families seeking international protection.

Behind these stark numbers on pending cases, the scale of processing remains significant. In 2024 alone, Türkiye recorded over 679,000 Refugee Status Determination (RSD) decisions. Analysis of these outcomes shows that a few key decision pathways account for the vast majority of cases, highlighting the common trajectories within the system.

However, a closer examination of these decisions reveals significant disparities in outcomes. For the top 10 nationalities seeking asylum in Türkiye in 2024, refugee recognition rates varied dramatically based on country of origin, ranging from as low as 2.7 per cent to as high as 94.2 per cent. This divergence underscores that outcomes are intrinsically linked to the specific conditions and protection needs of different populations, rather than the sheer volume of applications from a particular country.

This variability in outcomes is not unique to a single host country. The data also shows that Turkish nationals seeking protection abroad faced similarly disparate results. Across the top ten countries of asylum for Turkish citizens, recognition rates ranged from just 8 per cent to over 81 per cent. Taken together, these trends highlight the dual challenges confronting national asylum systems: managing immense caseloads while ensuring equitable and consistent adjudication for all individuals in search of safety.

AI Insight: Grouped bar chart of asylum applications and decisions in Türkiye from 2019 to 2023, where the number of applications each year significantly outnumbers the total decisions made., This bar chart provides a statistical summary of the asylum process in Türkiye over a five-year period, from 2019 to 2023. The data is aggregated annually and disaggregated into three categories representing different stages of the asylum procedure (e.g., applications, positive decisions, negative decisions).

Statistical analysis of the underlying data, which comprises 15 observations (3 stages for each of the 5 years), reveals significant variation. The total number of individuals accounted for in any given category per year ranges from a minimum of 5,445 to a maximum of 81,070. The overall mean across all categories and years is approximately 34,472, while the median is 31,334. The right-skewed distribution, indicated by the mean being higher than the median and the provided histogram (▇▃▂▂▂), suggests that a few instances with very high counts pull the average up.

The visualization highlights the volume of incoming asylum claims relative to the processing capacity, as reflected in the number of decisions. A key insight is the consistent gap between the number of new applications and the number of cases adjudicated within the same year, which often points to a growing backlog in the asylum system. The subtitle is an important qualifier, noting that under certain circumstances, an individual might file more than one application, meaning the figures do not necessarily represent unique individuals.

AI Insight: Parallel sets plot of Refugee Status Determination decision pathways in Türkiye, where a few key pathways account for the majority of the 679,409 total decisions recorded in 2024., This parallel sets plot visualizes the flow of 679,409 Refugee Status Determination (RSD) decisions made in Türkiye during 2024. The chart illustrates the pathways of asylum cases as they move between different categories or statuses. The data is comprised of 60 distinct flows between two categorical variables. The volume of individuals in each flow varies significantly, from a minimum of 0 to a maximum of 168,602. The statistical distribution is heavily skewed, with a mean of 33,970 and a median of 19,600, indicating that a small number of decision pathways represent a disproportionately large volume of the total cases. This visualization is crucial for understanding the scale and outcomes of the RSD process in Türkiye, highlighting the most common decision trajectories and identifying potential areas for operational focus or analysis.

AI Insight: Area chart of cumulative asylum applications and first-instance decisions in Türkiye from 2020 to 2024, where a widening gap between applications and decisions shows an increasing case backlog., This area chart illustrates the trend of asylum case processing in Türkiye, tracking cumulative data from 2020 to 2024. The chart displays two primary series: the cumulative total of asylum applications registered and the cumulative total of first-instance decisions made. The vertical space between these two lines represents the pending caseload or backlog. Both series show a consistent upward trajectory. The key insight is the progressive widening of the gap between the application line and the decision line over the years. This indicates that the number of new applications has consistently outpaced the rate of decisions, leading to a significant increase in the overall backlog. The visualization effectively highlights the growing average processing time for asylum seekers awaiting a first-instance decision in the country.

Recognition Rates

AI Insight: Bar chart of the 2024 Refugee Recognition Rate by the top 10 countries of origin in Türkiye, where the rate varies widely from 2.7% to 94.2%., This vertical bar chart presents the 2024 Refugee Recognition Rates in Türkiye for the top 10 countries of origin. The countries are ordered by the total volume of asylum decisions processed, not by the recognition rate itself. The analysis reveals a significant disparity in outcomes based on nationality. The recognition rates range from a high of 94.2% to a low of 2.7%, with a mean recognition rate of 41.0% across these ten groups. The total number of decisions also varies substantially, from 1,317 for the country with the fewest decisions to 298,926 for the one with the most. The data indicates that all positive outcomes resulted in recognized refugee status, as no individuals in this dataset were granted complementary protection. The chart effectively illustrates that the volume of applications from a country does not correlate with its recognition rate.

AI Insight: Bar chart of 2024 refugee recognition rates for Turkish nationals by country of asylum, where rates vary widely from 8% to 81% across the top ten countries., This vertical bar chart displays the refugee recognition rates for asylum seekers from Türkiye in 2024. The data is filtered to the top 10 countries of asylum, ranked by the total number of decisions made. Each bar represents a country, with its height indicating the percentage of positive refugee status decisions. The analysis reveals a significant disparity in outcomes; the average recognition rate across these countries is 23.9%, while the median is 14.4%, suggesting that a few countries with higher rates pull the average up. The rates range dramatically from a low of 7.5% to a high of 81%. The total number of decisions processed also varies substantially, from 17,244 to 316,285. When including complementary protection, the average total recognition rate increases slightly to 28.4%, but the overall wide variation between countries remains the key finding.

Solutions

Solutions

Amid a global landscape where durable solutions remain scarce for millions, the situation in Türkiye presents a noteworthy and complex trend, reflecting concerted efforts to resolve displacement situations. While the path to a lasting solution is often long and fraught with challenges, analysis of recent data and projections reveals a significant acceleration in the scale of available solutions, offering a glimmer of hope for many forcibly displaced persons.

The data reveals a significant upward trajectory in the provision of durable solutions between 2019 and 2025. While experiencing fluctuations, including dips in 2020 and 2023, the overall trend points towards a substantial and accelerating increase. This momentum is starkly evident in projections for the coming period. After a total of 44,953 solutions were recorded in 2022, the number is projected to surge to 159,439 in 2024 and reach an unprecedented 223,903 in 2025. Behind these aggregate figures, the data indicates that this growth is concentrated in a few key solution pathways, suggesting targeted and large-scale initiatives are the primary drivers of this increase.

Placing these figures in context, the analysis highlights a significant and widening gap between the number of available solutions and the number of new refugee status recognitions granted annually. In every year for which data is available, the quantum of solutions has substantially exceeded the number of positive asylum decisions. For instance, in 2022, available solutions outnumbered new recognitions by a factor of more than three to one.

This disparity is set to expand exponentially. While new recognitions stood at 9,966 in 2023, the projected explosion in solutions in 2024 and 2025 underscores a critical shift. The capacity and pipeline for solutions—whether through resettlement, complementary pathways, or other modalities—are expanding at a rate that far outpaces the recent flow of new status determinations. This signals a potentially pivotal moment for resolving protracted displacement in the country, contingent on sustained political will from all stakeholders and robust international support to ensure these solutions are truly safe, dignified, and durable.

AI Insight: Column chart of the number of solutions for forcibly displaced people in Türkiye from 2019 to 2025, where the number of solutions shows a dramatic increasing trend, peaking in 2025., This chart displays the trend in solutions for forcibly displaced people in Türkiye, analyzed annually from 2019 to 2025. The statistical profile reveals a significant upward trajectory over this period, despite some fluctuations.

A key characteristic of the data is its severe right-skewness; for every year, the median (50th percentile) is zero, while the mean and maximum values are substantial. This indicates that for any given year, a few specific solution types account for very high numbers, while most others are at or near zero.

The trend shows a dip from 2019 (mean: 8,576) to 2020 (mean: 4,539), followed by a recovery and a significant increase in 2022 (mean: 11,238). After another dip in 2023 (mean: 4,966), the number of solutions surged dramatically. In 2024, the mean increased to 39,860 with a maximum value of 159,439. This growth peaked in 2025, with the mean reaching an all-time high of 55,976 and a maximum of 223,903. The overall insight is a substantial and accelerating increase in solutions, particularly in the most recent years of the dataset.

AI Insight: Line and area chart of refugee recognitions and available solutions in Türkiye from 2019 to 2025, where the number of available solutions consistently outnumbers new refugee recognitions, with the gap projected to increase significantly., This time-series visualization compares the number of annual refugee recognitions with the number of available durable solutions in Türkiye for the period 2019 to 2025. The chart highlights a significant and growing gap between these two metrics.

Refugee Recognitions: The data for new refugee recognitions, which represents positive decisions on asylum applications, is available from 2019 to 2023. The trend shows an initial increase from 5,445 in 2019 to a peak of 13,227 in 2021. Following this peak, the number of recognitions decreased to 12,857 in 2022 and further to 9,966 in 2023. Data for 2024 and 2025 is not available.

Available Solutions: Available solutions, which may include resettlement, voluntary repatriation, or local integration, consistently exceed the number of new recognitions. In 2019, there were 34,303 solutions. This figure fluctuated over the next four years, with a low of 18,155 in 2020 and a high of 44,953 in 2022. The data for 2024 and 2025 are projections, showing a dramatic increase to 159,439 and 223,903 respectively.

Analysis: The key insight is the substantial disparity between the two metrics. In every year with complete data, solutions far outnumbered recognitions. For example, in 2022, solutions were more than 3.5 times higher than recognitions. The projected data for 2024 and 2025 indicates this gap is expected to widen exponentially, suggesting a significant increase in the capacity or availability of durable solutions compared to the recent rate of new refugee status grants in Türkiye.

Detailed Data: - 2019: Recognitions: 5,445; Solutions: 34,303 - 2020: Recognitions: 8,753; Solutions: 18,155 - 2021: Recognitions: 13,227; Solutions: 22,275 - 2022: Recognitions: 12,857; Solutions: 44,953 - 2023: Recognitions: 9,966; Solutions: 19,865 - 2024: Recognitions: Not Available; Solutions: 159,439 (projected) - 2025: Recognitions: Not Available; Solutions: 223,903 (projected)