Chad: Country Report | 2024

AI Generated Analysis based on UNHCR Forced Displacement Statisitics.

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Executive Summary

Population Overview

Population Overview: Chad

The number of people in need of international protection in Chad continued its steep upward trajectory, reaching 1.8 million by early 2024. This dramatic increase was predominantly fueled by the devastating conflict in neighbouring Sudan, which drove an influx of over 216,000 new refugees and asylum-seekers—a staggering rise of 39 per cent in just one year. Concurrently, escalating insecurity in the Lake Chad Basin displaced an additional 134,000 people internally, representing a 52 per cent increase in the IDP population.

The data reveals that refugees and asylum-seekers now constitute the vast majority of persons of concern, accounting for over 1.2 million people, or 70 per cent of the total. The sheer scale of the Sudanese crisis is evident in the population’s composition: over 1.1 million refugees in Chad originate from Sudan, a figure that dwarfs all other nationalities combined and underscores the immense pressure on Chad’s eastern border.

Behind these stark numbers lies a demographic profile characterized by profound vulnerability. The displaced population is overwhelmingly young, with a wide base in the population pyramid indicating a high dependency ratio and an urgent need for education, nutrition, and child protection services. Furthermore, the data reveals a significant gender imbalance, with males outnumbering females, particularly in the 18-59 age cohort. This demographic structure points to specific protection risks and requires targeted programmatic responses, including livelihood opportunities and psychosocial support. The convergence of new, large-scale influxes and a youthful, vulnerable population profile continues to place extraordinary strain on the resources of Chad and the humanitarian community.

Demographics

AI Insight: Treemap of populations of concern in Chad, where refugees and asylum-seekers constitute the vast majority of the 1.825 million individuals., This treemap details the composition of the 1,825,000 individuals classified as populations of concern in Chad for the year 2024. The visualization is dominated by a single category, ‘Refugees and asylum-seekers’, which number 1,278,866, accounting for approximately 70% of the total. The next largest group is ‘Internally displaced persons (IDPs)’ with 268,944 individuals. Other smaller, yet significant, populations include ‘Returned refugees’ at 18,087 and ‘Stateless persons’ at 7,779. The data indicates a highly skewed distribution, emphasizing that the primary humanitarian situation in Chad revolves around refugees and, to a lesser extent, IDPs.

AI Insight: A population pyramid of displaced and stateless persons in Chad for 2024, where the population is predominantly young and males significantly outnumber females, especially in the 18-59 age group., This population pyramid illustrates the age and gender distribution of 11,091,640 refugees, asylum-seekers, IDPs, and other persons of concern in Chad as of 2024. The chart displays age cohorts on the vertical axis and the percentage of the population on the horizontal axis, with males on the right and females on the left.

Overall, the structure is that of an expansive pyramid with a very wide base, indicating a youthful population with high dependency ratios. The largest cohorts are the youngest age groups.

A significant demographic imbalance is the most prominent feature. Males constitute a substantially larger portion of the population than females. Based on the data, the male population accounts for approximately two-thirds of the total, while the female population accounts for about one-third.

Key statistical observations include: - The 18-59 age group for males is the single largest demographic segment, representing 38.9% of the total population. - In contrast, the largest female cohort is the 0-4 age group, representing 15.4% of the total. - Across all age groups, the male population percentage is higher than the female population percentage.

This demographic profile suggests a high demand for services catering to children and youth, such as education, nutrition, and child protection. The pronounced gender imbalance, particularly the large number of adult males, points to potential protection risks and specific needs related to livelihoods, mental health, and social integration that require targeted programmatic responses from UNHCR and its partners.

Geography & Movements

Geography & Movements: Interconnected Crises in the Sahel

The geography of displacement in central Africa and the Sahel was fundamentally reshaped by the outbreak of conflict in Sudan in April 2023, with Chad at the epicenter of the resulting humanitarian emergency. The data reveals a dramatic shift in the composition of forcibly displaced populations within Chad, which has rapidly become one of the world’s largest refugee-hosting nations.

An unprecedented influx from Sudan occurred, with their numbers swelling to over 1.1 million by mid-2024. This single flow, which expanded exponentially after the conflict began, now dwarfs all other refugee populations in the country combined, including long-standing communities from the Central African Republic and Cameroon. The sheer scale of this movement has placed immense strain on Chad’s resources and humanitarian infrastructure.

Simultaneously, Chad remains a significant country of origin for displaced populations, a phenomenon characterized by its intensely regional nature. Behind these stark numbers lies a story of concentrated responsibility, where the vast majority of Chadians seeking international protection are hosted in neighboring countries. The data shows this distribution is extremely skewed; one country alone provides protection to over 537,000 individuals from Chad. This stands in sharp contrast to the global pattern, where 75 per cent of destination countries host fewer than 150 Chadians each, underscoring the disproportionate pressure on Chad’s immediate neighbors.

This dual reality—Chad as a primary recipient of one of the world’s largest new refugee flows while its own citizens rely on the hospitality of the surrounding region—highlights the profound interconnectedness of crises. It underscores the critical need for robust international solidarity and equitable responsibility-sharing to support host countries and communities that are stretched to their limits.

AI Insight: Choropleth map of destination countries for displaced populations from Chad, where neighboring countries host the vast majority of individuals, with one country hosting over 537,000 people., This choropleth map illustrates the global distribution of displaced populations originating from Chad as of 2024, including refugees, asylum-seekers, and other persons of concern to UNHCR. The data reveals a highly concentrated pattern of displacement.

Statistical analysis shows data for 51 out of 241 countries and territories. The distribution of displaced persons is extremely right-skewed, indicating that a very small number of countries host the overwhelming majority of the population. The median number of persons from Chad in a destination country is just 28, and 75% of destination countries host 142 or fewer individuals. In stark contrast, the maximum number hosted by a single country is 537,889. This outlier heavily influences the mean value of 11,300, which is not representative of a typical destination country. The large standard deviation (75,300) further confirms this high variability.

Geographically, this statistical profile strongly suggests that displacement from Chad is primarily a regional phenomenon. The vast majority of people are hosted in neighboring countries, while countries further afield host comparatively negligible numbers. This highlights the significant pressure placed on Chad’s immediate neighbors to provide international protection and assistance.

Origin of Displaced Populations

AI Insight: Horizontal bar chart of the number of refugees in Chad by country of origin in 2024, where refugees from Sudan constitute the vast majority, numbering over 1.1 million., This horizontal bar chart, titled ‘Chad: Refugees | 2024’, details the populations of refugees hosted in Chad from their top nine countries of origin. The data highlights a significant concentration from a single nation, underscoring a major regional crisis. Sudan is the primary country of origin, accounting for 1,109,357 refugees. This figure vastly outweighs all other groups combined. The second and third largest populations are from the Central African Republic and Cameroon, respectively, but their numbers are substantially smaller. The remaining countries shown, including Nigeria, Eritrea, and South Sudan, have refugee populations in the thousands or hundreds. The statistical profile confirms this disparity: while the maximum value is over 1.1 million, the median refugee population from an origin country is only 547. This visualization emphasizes the immense scale of the Sudanese displacement into Chad, positioning it as a critical humanitarian situation requiring significant international support.

AI Insight: Alluvial diagram of the origins of forcibly displaced populations in Chad from 2019 to 2025, where the total population increases dramatically due to a massive influx of refugees from Sudan after 2023., This alluvial diagram illustrates the evolution of the forcibly displaced population in Chad by country of origin between 2019 and 2025. The diagram tracks four distinct origin groups: Sudan, Central African Republic (C.A.R.), Chad (representing Internally Displaced Persons or IDPs), and ‘Others’.

The most striking feature of the visualization is the dramatic and sudden expansion of the flow representing people from Sudan. From 2019 to 2022, the Sudanese refugee population appears relatively stable. However, between 2023 and 2024, this flow widens exponentially, becoming the largest single group by a substantial margin and driving the total displaced population to its peak of over 1.2 million people from a single origin. This corresponds to the major influx of refugees following the outbreak of conflict in Sudan in April 2023.

In contrast, the population originating from the C.A.R. shows a much more stable trend throughout the period, remaining a significant but proportionally smaller group after 2023. Similarly, the populations of Chadian IDPs and ‘Others’ constitute smaller, relatively consistent flows over the seven-year period. The data clearly shows that the humanitarian landscape in Chad was fundamentally altered by the Sudanese crisis, shifting the demographic composition of the forcibly displaced.

Destination

AI Insight: Bar chart of the top 10 destination countries for forcibly displaced people from Chad as of 2024, where the primary destination country hosts a significantly larger population than the other nine., This vertical bar chart displays the distribution of forcibly displaced people from Chad across the top ten host countries as of 2024. The data shows a highly concentrated pattern, with the top destination hosting approximately 4.8 million people. This is substantially more than the second-ranked country, which hosts around 1 million. The remaining eight countries host populations ranging from a median of about 155,000 down to a minimum of 21,164. This significant skew highlights the immense pressure and responsibility placed on the primary host country, informing UNHCR’s strategic focus on resource allocation and support for that specific region.

Asylum System

National Asylum Systems Under Pressure

The integrity of asylum systems worldwide is a cornerstone of the international protection regime, yet many national systems, particularly in countries neighbouring major crises, faced unprecedented strain. The data reveals how sudden, large-scale influxes can overwhelm processing capacities, leading to significant backlogs and prolonging the uncertainty for those seeking safety.

In Chad, for instance, the asylum system contended with a dramatic surge in new claims, which peaked at over 8,200 in a single year—an extreme outlier far exceeding the annual median of 789 cases. This influx placed immense pressure on the country’s Refugee Status Determination (RSD) procedures. While national authorities processed a remarkable 25,161 decisions in 2024, the rate of new applications consistently outpaced this capacity. The cumulative data shows a growing gap between claims lodged and decisions rendered, resulting in a substantial and widening backlog that translates into longer waits for vulnerable individuals and families.

Behind these stark numbers lies a complex protection landscape. An analysis of decisions in Chad shows that outcomes are heavily dependent on an individual’s country of origin. Refugee recognition rates for the top 10 nationalities ranged from as high as 83.1 per cent to as low as 5.6 per cent, underscoring the diverse profiles and acute protection needs of those arriving, many of whom are fleeing intense conflict and persecution in the region.

Crucially, this pressure is occurring within a country that is itself a source of displacement. In 2024 alone, nearly 83,000 decisions were made on asylum applications filed by Chadian nationals abroad. Their prospects for protection were highly inconsistent, with recognition rates in their top 10 countries of asylum varying from 64.4 per cent to a mere 0.2 per cent. This dual reality highlights Chad’s position at the epicentre of regional instability, acting as both a critical sanctuary for refugees and a country from which its own citizens are compelled to flee.

AI Insight: Bar chart of asylum applications and decisions in Chad from 2019 to 2024, where the total number of cases peaked dramatically, reaching over 8,200 in a single year., This bar chart displays the annual totals for asylum applications and decisions registered in Chad between 2019 and 2024. It is noted that under specific circumstances, one individual may submit multiple applications. The data shows significant volatility year-on-year. While the median annual total is 789 cases, one year experienced an extreme surge, with the count reaching a maximum of 8,221. This peak value is a major outlier compared to the 75th percentile of 1,002 cases. The statistical profile confirms this skewed distribution, with a mean of 1,303 and a high standard deviation of 2,007, indicating that the caseload in most years was relatively low, but was punctuated by at least one year of exceptionally high asylum-seeking activity.

AI Insight: Alluvial diagram of refugee status determination (RSD) outcomes in Chad for 2024, where the paths of 25,161 decisions are traced from the decision-making stage to their final status., This alluvial diagram provides a detailed visualization of the outcomes of Refugee Status Determination (RSD) procedures in Chad, covering 25,161 decisions recorded in 2024. The chart uses parallel vertical axes to represent different stages of the RSD process, with flows connecting them to illustrate the journey of asylum claims. The width of each flow is directly proportional to the number of cases it represents.

The visualization breaks down the total decisions into their respective outcomes, such as refugee status granted, other forms of protection, rejections, and administrative closures. It effectively shows the distribution of outcomes at the first instance and likely traces the progression of appealed cases to their final determination.

Statistically, the data reveals a significant variance in the size of these outcome groups. While the average flow size is approximately 1,048 individuals, the distribution is highly skewed. The largest single pathway accounts for 9,838 decisions, indicating a primary outcome that applies to a large portion of the cases. Conversely, 50% of the distinct pathways represent 200 or fewer cases, highlighting the smaller, more nuanced outcomes within the system. The chart’s purpose is to offer a transparent and comprehensive overview of the asylum system’s performance in Chad for the specified period.

AI Insight: Area chart of cumulative asylum applications versus decisions in Chad from 2020 to 2026, where the gap between applications received and decisions made widens significantly over time, indicating a growing processing backlog., This area chart visualizes the trend in asylum application processing in Chad from 2020 to 2026. The vertical axis represents the cumulative total, while the horizontal axis marks the years. The chart displays two series: one for cumulative asylum applications and one for cumulative first-instance decisions. The area between these two lines represents the pending caseload.

The data shows that the number of cumulative applications consistently outpaces the number of decisions issued. Both series show an upward trend, with the total cumulative count (‘n’) rising from a minimum of 868 to a maximum of 13,793 over the period. However, the gap between the application line and the decision line grows progressively larger each year. This visual divergence indicates that the rate of new applications is higher than the processing capacity, leading to a substantial and increasing backlog. The subtitle specifies this gap is measured in days, highlighting the lengthening wait times for asylum seekers to receive a decision on their case.

Recognition Rates

AI Insight: * Bar chart of Refugee Recognition Rates in Chad in 2024 for the top 10 countries of origin, where rates vary widely, from a high of 83.1% to a low of 5.6%.*, This bar chart displays the Refugee Recognition Rate in Chad for 2024, focusing on the 10 countries of origin with the highest number of asylum decisions. The recognition rate is the percentage of positive decisions for refugee status out of the total decisions made.

Statistical analysis of the data for these 10 nationalities reveals significant variability in outcomes. The average recognition rate is 50.1%, with a median of 49.8%. However, the rates span a wide spectrum, from a minimum of just 5.6% to a maximum of 83.1%. Half of the countries have recognition rates between 43.9% and 61.3%.

The chart is ordered by the total volume of asylum decisions, which also varies dramatically, ranging from 56 for one nationality to as high as 11,875 for another. This highlights the differing scales of displacement and asylum-seeking populations arriving in Chad. From a protection standpoint, this data underscores that the profile and protection needs of asylum seekers in Chad are not uniform, with outcomes differing substantially based on the country of origin, likely reflecting the specific conditions and conflicts in those countries.

AI Insight: Vertical bar chart of 2024 refugee recognition rates for nationals from Chad by country of asylum, where rates vary significantly, from a low of 0.2% to a high of 64.4%., This vertical bar chart displays the 2024 refugee recognition rates for asylum seekers from Chad across the ten countries of asylum that processed the highest number of their applications. The vertical axis shows the recognition rate as a percentage, while the horizontal axis lists the individual countries.

The countries are ordered by the total number of decisions made, ranging from 1,161 to 26,533, not by the recognition rate itself. This is a critical distinction, as a country processing many cases may have a lower rate than a country processing fewer cases.

Statistically, the data reveals a significant disparity in outcomes. The average refugee recognition rate across these ten countries is 21.5%, with a median of 16.0%. However, the standard deviation is high at 21.6%, underscoring the wide variation. The rates range from a minimum of just 0.2% to a maximum of 64.4%. When including other forms of international protection (complementary protection), the average total recognition rate rises to 30.3%.

This visualization highlights that the likelihood of a Chadian national being granted refugee status is heavily dependent on the asylum country in which they apply. The high volume of total decisions (a sum of 82,880 across these 10 countries) indicates a substantial number of Chadian nationals are seeking protection.

Solutions

Progress Towards Solutions

While the global landscape of forced displacement is often defined by growing numbers, the data from specific country situations can reveal encouraging, albeit complex, progress on durable solutions. The case of Chad, a nation hosting a significant and long-standing refugee population, provides a compelling example of how concerted efforts can yield substantial results, even as new protection needs arise.

The data reveals a significant trend where, for most of the period between 2019 and 2025, the number of refugees for whom a durable solution was found vastly outnumbered new recognitions of refugee status. This indicates a focus on resolving protracted situations. In 2022, for instance, a remarkable peak of over 34,000 solutions was achieved, a figure more than 50 times greater than the 658 individuals granted protection during the same period. This pattern continued into 2024, with over 18,000 solutions compared to just over 3,200 new recognitions.

However, behind these encouraging totals lies a highly volatile pattern, indicating that progress is not linear but is often driven by specific, large-scale events rather than a consistent annual process. Following a near-halt in solution activities during 2020 and 2021, where numbers fell to as low as 36, the massive surge in 2022 underscores the impact of major repatriation, resettlement, or local integration initiatives. The sustained, though fluctuating, high numbers in subsequent years suggest an ongoing commitment to addressing displacement. The only year this trend was reversed was 2020, a year of exceptionally low activity across the board, likely reflecting the global restrictions imposed by the COVID-19 pandemic. The experience in Chad demonstrates that while the path to solutions is rarely smooth, targeted and well-resourced programmes can make a profound difference in the lives of thousands of displaced people.

AI Insight: Bar chart of solutions for forcibly displaced people in Chad by year from 2019 to 2025, where the number of solutions peaked significantly in 2022 following very low numbers in 2020 and 2021., This bar chart displays the annual trends in durable solutions for people forcibly displaced across borders in Chad from 2019 to 2025. The data reveals a highly volatile pattern over this period.

Statistical Analysis: - 2019: The mean number of solutions was approximately 3,932. - 2020-2021: There was a dramatic drop in solutions, with mean values falling to just 9 in 2020 and 37.5 in 2021, indicating a near halt in solution activities. - 2022: A massive surge occurred, with the mean number of solutions reaching an exceptional peak of 8,516, the highest in the observed period. The maximum value for this year was 34,063, suggesting a large-scale event or program. - 2023: The number of solutions decreased from the 2022 peak but remained significant, with a mean of 2,486. - 2024: The trend reversed upwards again, with a mean of 4,522. - 2025: The year shows another high value with a mean of 8,195, nearly matching the 2022 peak. Unlike most other years where the median was zero, the median for 2025 is 3,766, indicating a more sustained distribution of solutions.

Context and Interpretation: The significant fluctuations, especially the near-zero activity in 2020-2021 followed by the record high in 2022, suggest that solutions in Chad are driven by specific, large-scale events rather than a consistent annual process. The 2022 spike likely corresponds to a major repatriation, resettlement, or local integration initiative. The sustained high numbers in 2024 and 2025 may reflect ongoing efforts to address the protracted displacement situations affecting Chad, which hosts a large population of refugees and asylum-seekers.

AI Insight: Line chart of refugee recognitions and solutions in Chad from 2019 to 2025, where the number of solutions provided has consistently and significantly outnumbered new refugee recognitions, except for 2020., This chart provides a comparative analysis of two key metrics in Chad from 2019 to 2025: the number of individuals granted refugee status (recognitions) and the number of refugees for whom a durable solution was found.

Analysis of Refugee Recognitions: The number of new refugee recognitions has shown an overall increasing, yet volatile, trend. Starting at 67 in 2019, it dropped to 42 in 2020 and hit zero in 2021. The numbers then rose sharply to 658 in 2022, 789 in 2023, and peaked at 3,232 in 2024. The figure for 2025 is projected at 274.

Analysis of Solutions: The provision of durable solutions has been highly variable. After a high of 15,729 in 2019, the number plummeted to just 36 in 2020. It then recovered to 150 in 2021 and surged to a period-high of 34,063 in 2022. Subsequent years saw fluctuations with 9,943 in 2023, 18,087 in 2024, and a projection of 7,531 for 2025.

Comparative Insight: A significant gap exists between the two metrics for most of the period, with solutions vastly outnumbering new recognitions. For instance, in 2022, solutions were more than 50 times greater than recognitions. The only exception was 2020, a year of exceptionally low numbers for both, where recognitions (42) slightly surpassed solutions (36). This trend suggests that while new protection needs are arising, efforts to resolve existing refugee situations through repatriation, integration, or resettlement have been implemented on a much larger scale in most years.

Data Table: | Year | Recognitions | Solutions | |—|—|—| | 2019 | 67 | 15,729 | | 2020 | 42 | 36 | | 2021 | 0 | 150 | | 2022 | 658 | 34,063 | | 2023 | 789 | 9,943 | | 2024 | 3,232 | 18,087 | | 2025 | 274 | 7,531 |