South Sudan: Country Report | 2024

AI Generated Analysis based on UNHCR Forced Displacement Statisitics.

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Executive Summary

Of course. Here is the ‘Key Trends’ executive summary.

To: Donors, Member States, Press From: The High Commissioner Subject: Key Trends in the South Sudan Emergency, 2024

Executive Summary: A Nation at a Perilous Crossroads

South Sudan stands at the epicentre of a devastating convergence of crises. Our latest data reveals a nation grappling with one of the world’s most severe and protracted internal displacement emergencies while simultaneously confronting a massive new refugee influx from the conflict in Sudan. Within its borders, 2.8 million people are under UNHCR’s mandate, including over 2 million Internally Displaced Persons. This fragile landscape was dramatically reshaped over the past year by the arrival of over 487,000 refugees from Sudan, a figure that has placed unimaginable strain on already overstretched resources and host communities.

This dual reality—a country struggling to support its own displaced while absorbing a historic influx—is mirrored across the region. More than 2.3 million South Sudanese remain refugees abroad, the vast majority hosted by neighbouring low- and middle-income countries like Uganda, Sudan, Ethiopia, and Kenya. Their generosity continues to be the bedrock of the international protection regime. However, asylum systems are at a breaking point. For South Sudanese seeking safety, recognition rates can vary from less than 2% to over 99% depending on the host country, creating a lottery of protection that undermines the very principles of refugee law.

The path to solutions remains fraught with challenges, yet there is a critical shift in focus. After a sharp decline in recent years, the international community has projected a significant increase in durable solutions for 2025. Crucially, the number of available solutions now vastly outpaces the number of newly recognized South Sudanese refugees. This signals an urgent and necessary pivot: the core challenge is no longer just managing new displacement, but decisively resolving the protracted crisis for the millions who have been waiting years to rebuild their lives. Turning these projections into reality will demand unwavering political will and dedicated resources to finally bring an end to their displacement.

Population Overview

Population Overview: A Convergence of Crises in South Sudan

The humanitarian landscape in South Sudan remains defined by a protracted and large-scale crisis of internal displacement, now compounded by a major new refugee influx. The data reveals that internal displacement is the predominant challenge, with Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) consistently representing the largest population of concern over the past five years. As of early 2024, of the 2.8 million people under UNHCR’s mandate in the country, IDPs number 1.3 million, or 47 per cent of the total. Together with nearly 730,000 returnees, these two groups underscore the complex and cyclical nature of displacement and return within the country’s borders.

This long-standing internal situation has been profoundly impacted by the outbreak of conflict in neighbouring Sudan in April 2023. The crisis triggered a massive influx of people seeking safety, drastically reshaping the protection environment. Refugees from Sudan now number over 487,000, a figure that dwarfs all other refugee populations in the country combined. This dramatic influx is reflected in the highly dynamic population movements observed between 2023 and 2024, which saw one population group swell by over 133,000 people. This new emergency is layered upon an already fragile context, placing immense strain on resources and host communities.

Behind these stark numbers lies a demographic profile that underscores immense vulnerability. The population of concern in South Sudan is overwhelmingly young, characterized by an expansive age pyramid with a broad base of children and youth. This structure signals a critical and ongoing need for child protection, education, and maternal and child health services. With a near-equal distribution between males and females, gender-specific programming is essential to address distinct protection risks. The convergence of a protracted internal crisis and a new, large-scale refugee emergency places extraordinary pressure on a deeply vulnerable population and the communities that support them, stretching humanitarian capacity to its limits.

Demographics

AI Insight: Treemap of the population of concern in South Sudan by type, where Internally Displaced Persons and Returnees constitute the vast majority of the total 2.8 million individuals., This treemap visualizes the breakdown of the 2,807,000 individuals classified as populations of concern in South Sudan as of 2024. The chart is composed of seven rectangles, with the area of each being proportional to the size of the population group it represents.

The data shows a highly concentrated distribution. The largest category is ‘Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs)’, numbering 1,327,345, which accounts for approximately 47.3% of the total population of concern. The second-largest group is ‘Returnees’ with 729,712 individuals (26.0%). Together, these two groups represent over 73% of the total, highlighting internal displacement and return as the most significant humanitarian dynamics in the country.

Other notable populations include ‘Refugees and asylum-seekers’ at 396,260 (14.1%) and ‘Stateless persons’ at 18,000 (0.6%). The remaining, smaller categories include ‘Host community’ (13,380), ‘Others of concern’ (4,561), and a category with a zero value, likely ‘Returned IDPs’ as indicated in the statistical profile.

AI Insight: Population pyramid of age and gender for 12.4 million people of concern in South Sudan as of 2024, where the chart shows a wide base, indicating a very youthful population, and a near-equal distribution between males and females., This population pyramid illustrates the age and gender structure of the 12,399,462 people of concern in South Sudan, with fully disaggregated data as of 2024. The chart displays an ‘expansive’ pyramid shape, characterized by a broad base and progressively narrowing bars for older age cohorts. This structure is indicative of a young and rapidly growing population.

Statistical Breakdown: - The population is divided into five age groups: 0-4, 5-11, 12-17, 18-59, and 60+ years. - The gender distribution is nearly balanced, with females constituting a slight majority. The mean proportion for females across the age groups is 10.2%, while for males it is 9.8%. - The largest single demographic group is children aged 0-4, which represents the wide base of the pyramid. The highest proportion in any single female age group is 21.4%, and for males, it is 19.2%. - The population decreases steadily with age, with the 60+ cohort being the smallest, accounting for approximately 1.5% for both males and females.

Context and Implications: The demographic profile highlights significant programmatic needs. The large youth population underscores a critical demand for child protection, education, nutrition, and maternal and child health services. The substantial working-age population (18-59) points to the need for livelihood support, vocational training, and economic inclusion initiatives. The relatively small elderly population requires targeted protection and healthcare.

Geography & Movements

Geography of Displacement: The Intersecting Crises of South Sudan

The geography of displacement connected to South Sudan reveals a complex and deeply challenging reality, where the country is simultaneously a major source of refugees and a critical host for those fleeing one of the world’s largest new crises. The protracted displacement situation originating from South Sudan remains immense, with millions of its citizens forcibly displaced. Behind these stark numbers, the data reveals a pattern of intense regional concentration. The vast majority of the 2.3 million South Sudanese refugees and asylum-seekers are hosted in just a handful of neighbouring countries, with Uganda, Sudan, Ethiopia, and Kenya shouldering the primary responsibility. This underscores a familiar global trend where low- and middle-income countries in immediate proximity to a crisis provide refuge to the overwhelming majority of those forced to flee.

Compounding this long-standing situation is the immense internal displacement crisis, with over 2 million Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) remaining within South Sudan’s borders, consistently representing the largest single group of forcibly displaced people in the country.

However, the dynamics of displacement were dramatically reshaped by the conflict that erupted in neighbouring Sudan in April 2023. This has positioned South Sudan, a nation grappling with its own fragility, on the frontlines of a massive new emergency. The influx has been overwhelming. An analysis of refugee origins within South Sudan shows that the vast majority—over 487,000 individuals—are now from Sudan. This single group dwarfs all other refugee populations in the country combined. The flow from Sudan, which also includes a significant number of returning South Sudanese nationals who had previously been living there, has placed unimaginable strain on already overstretched resources and host communities. This dual reality—a nation struggling to support its own displaced population while absorbing a massive influx from its neighbour—epitomizes the cascading and interconnected nature of forced displacement in the region.

AI Insight: Choropleth map of destination countries for displaced people from South Sudan as of 2024, where the population is heavily concentrated in a small number of host countries, primarily in the surrounding region., This choropleth world map visualizes the global distribution of displaced and stateless populations originating from South Sudan as of 2024. The data encompasses various categories including Refugees, Asylum-seekers, Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs), and others of concern to UNHCR. The color intensity of each country corresponds to the total number of individuals from South Sudan it hosts.

A statistical analysis of the underlying data, which includes 53 countries with reported figures, reveals a highly skewed distribution. The median number of persons of concern per country is only 45, with 75% of countries hosting 277 or fewer individuals. However, the mean is significantly higher at approximately 61,600, and the maximum value for a single country is 975,079. This large discrepancy between the median and the mean, along with a high standard deviation of over 200,000, indicates that the vast majority of South Sudan’s displaced population is concentrated in a very small number of countries. This pattern is typical of forced displacement crises, where neighboring countries bear the largest share of the responsibility for hosting refugees. The inclusion of IDPs in the dataset also implies that a substantial portion of the total figure is located within South Sudan itself.

Origin of Displaced Populations

AI Insight: Horizontal bar chart of the top 9 countries of origin for refugees in South Sudan for 2024, where Sudan accounts for the vast majority of the refugee population., This horizontal bar chart details the number of refugees in South Sudan by their country of origin as of 2024. The data highlights a highly concentrated refugee population. The overwhelming majority of refugees, 487,652 individuals, come from neighboring Sudan. This single group is orders of magnitude larger than any other. The subsequent countries of origin have significantly smaller populations, with the Democratic Republic of Congo and Ethiopia being the next largest groups, followed by Eritrea, the Central African Republic, Somalia, Chad, and Nigeria. An ‘Other’ category consolidates the remaining populations. Statistically, the distribution is extremely right-skewed; while the maximum population from a single country is 487,652, the median value for all 10 origin groups is only 1,910, and the minimum is 13. This stark contrast underscores the profound impact of the crisis in Sudan on refugee displacement into South Sudan.

AI Insight: Alluvial diagram of the origin of forcibly displaced populations in South Sudan from 2019 to 2025, where the majority are of South Sudanese origin (internally displaced), with a significant increase in people from Sudan in recent years., This alluvial diagram visualizes the evolution of the origins of forcibly displaced populations residing in South Sudan between 2019 and 2025, with figures in thousands. The data is disaggregated into three origin categories: South Sudan (‘Sou’), Sudan (‘Sud’), and Other countries (‘Oth’).

The most prominent flow throughout the entire period consists of individuals of South Sudanese origin, representing the large population of Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) within the country. This group consistently constitutes the largest portion of the total displaced population.

A significant trend highlighted by the chart is the substantial increase in the number of people displaced from Sudan, particularly from 2023 onwards, corresponding with the conflict that began in April 2023. This has led to a large influx of both Sudanese refugees and returning South Sudanese nationals into South Sudan.

The ‘Other’ category, representing refugees and asylum-seekers from various other countries, remains a smaller and relatively stable component of the displaced population.

Statistically, the dataset includes 21 observations over 7 years. The number of people from any single origin category in a given year ranges from a minimum of 26,410 to a maximum of 2,017,236, with a median of 308,193. The wide range and high maximum value underscore the scale of internal displacement, while the evolving flows from Sudan demonstrate the compounding impact of regional crises on South Sudan.

Destination

AI Insight: Bar chart of the top 10 destination countries for people displaced from South Sudan as of 2024, where the top country hosts a significantly larger population than the other nine., This horizontal bar chart displays the top 10 asylum countries for people forcibly displaced from South Sudan, based on 2024 data. The chart illustrates a significant concentration of the displaced population in a few key countries.

The data is highly right-skewed, with the mean number of displaced persons per country (4.4 million) being substantially larger than the median (1.18 million). This indicates that a few countries host a disproportionately high number of people. The total number of displaced people ranges from a minimum of 3,693 to a maximum of over 20 million in the top destination country. The interquartile range shows that while half of the countries host fewer than 1.2 million people, the top 25% each host over 6.6 million. This vast difference between the top-hosting nations and the others underscores the immense pressure placed on a small number of countries providing refuge.

Asylum System

Functioning of Asylum Systems

National asylum systems remain the bedrock of international protection, yet the data from 2024 reveals they face unprecedented strain, impacting both processing capacity and the consistency of protection outcomes for those forced to flee. The situation in South Sudan serves as a compelling case study of these dynamics, both as a host country and a country of origin.

The country’s own asylum system has experienced significant annual fluctuations in applications, with peaks of over 4,700 cases in a single year, highlighting the volatile and unpredictable nature of protection needs in the region. This pressure has direct consequences. The data reveals a critical operational challenge, as new asylum applications consistently outpace the rate of first-instance decisions. By 2024, this has resulted in a cumulative caseload of 13,416 applications, creating a widening backlog and prolonging uncertainty for those seeking safety. Within this strained system, outcomes vary considerably depending on nationality, with 2024 refugee recognition rates for the top five countries of origin ranging from 9.8 per cent to 36.2 per cent.

At the same time, nationals of South Sudan are themselves in significant need of international protection. Of the 12,893 asylum decisions for South Sudanese recorded globally in 2024, the primary pathway saw a large number granted refugee status at the first instance, underscoring the validity of their claims. However, access to this protection remains profoundly inconsistent across different host countries. Refugee recognition rates for South Sudanese nationals in their top ten countries of asylum varied dramatically, from as low as 1.9 per cent in one country to as high as 99.7 per cent in another.

Behind these stark numbers lies a dual reality: host countries, including those with limited resources, are grappling with overwhelmed asylum processes, while for refugees, the prospect of safety and a durable solution can depend overwhelmingly on the country in which they are able to seek it.

AI Insight: Bar chart of asylum applications and decisions in South Sudan from 2019 to 2024, categorized by asylum stage, where the total number of cases shows significant annual fluctuation, with a peak of over 4,700 cases in one year., This bar chart provides an overview of the volume of asylum applications and decisions in South Sudan for the period 2019 to 2024. The data is disaggregated by year and further broken down into three distinct stages of the asylum process.

Statistically, the dataset covers 21 observations across this period. The total number of cases in any given category and year ranges from 0 to a peak of 4,708. The mean number of cases is 1,364, while the median is 836. This significant difference between the mean and median indicates a right-skewed distribution, suggesting that a few years experienced exceptionally high volumes of asylum-related activities compared to the others.

From a UNHCR perspective, this visualization highlights the dynamic and often unpredictable nature of protection needs in South Sudan. The wide range in annual totals underscores the challenges in resource planning and operational capacity. The note that one person may have multiple applications is critical, as it clarifies that the data represents case volume, not necessarily the number of unique individuals seeking asylum. Analyzing these trends helps the organization anticipate needs, allocate resources effectively, and identify potential backlogs or surges in the asylum system.

AI Insight: Alluvial diagram of Refugee Status Determination (RSD) decisions for individuals from South Sudan in 2024, where out of 12,893 total decisions, the primary pathway shows cases processed at the first instance leading to refugee status recognition., This alluvial diagram provides a detailed overview of the 12,893 Refugee Status Determination (RSD) decisions recorded for South Sudanese asylum-seekers in 2024. The chart visualizes the flow of individual cases through various stages of the asylum process.

The process begins with the decision-making body, where the vast majority of cases are handled at the ‘First instance’ level, with a smaller number processed by ‘Appeal/review’ bodies.

From the first instance, the flow splits into three primary decision types: 1. Refugee status: This is the largest flow, indicating that a significant number of applicants were granted protection under the 1951 Convention. 2. Rejected: This represents the second-largest group, where applicants were not found to meet the criteria for refugee status. 3. Otherwise closed: A smaller flow representing cases closed for administrative or other reasons, such as the applicant withdrawing their claim.

Cases that are rejected at the first instance may proceed to an appeal, which is shown as a subsequent flow. The diagram culminates in the final status of the cases, illustrating the total number of individuals whose cases are closed with recognition, rejection, or for other reasons. The data indicates that the single largest flow within the entire process, numbering 3,946 individuals, is the group recognized with refugee status at the first instance.

AI Insight: Area chart of cumulative asylum applications versus decisions in South Sudan from 2020 to 2024, where the gap between applications and decisions widens over time, indicating an increasing processing backlog., This cumulative area chart illustrates the trend of asylum applications versus first-instance decisions in South Sudan for the period 2020 to 2024. The x-axis represents time in years, and the y-axis shows the cumulative total number of cases.

Two distinct areas are plotted: one for ‘Cumulative Applications’ and a smaller one beneath it for ‘Cumulative Decisions’. Both series show a consistent upward trend, but the rate of new applications consistently outpaces the rate of decisions made.

The key feature of the visualization is the growing vertical gap between the two areas. This gap represents the number of pending cases, or the backlog, in the asylum system. The data shows this backlog has expanded significantly over the years. By 2024, the total number of cumulative applications reached 13,416, while the number of decisions lagged substantially, visually demonstrating a significant operational challenge in processing capacity. This widening gap translates to longer average waiting times for asylum seekers awaiting a decision on their case.

Recognition Rates

AI Insight: Column chart of Refugee Recognition Rate by Country of Origin in South Sudan for 2024, where rates for the top five countries range from 9.8% to 36.2%., This column chart displays the refugee recognition rates in South Sudan for 2024, focusing on asylum-seekers from the five countries with the highest number of decisions. Each bar represents a country of origin, with its height indicating the percentage of positive decisions for refugee status.

Statistical analysis reveals significant variation in outcomes. The refugee recognition rate across these five nationalities averages 24.2%, with a minimum of 9.8% and a maximum of 36.2%. The number of decisions made per country also varies substantially, from a low of 51 to a high of 7,575. This context is crucial, as a rate is based on a different volume of cases for each country.

When including other forms of protection (complementary protection), the ‘Total Recognition Rate’ is considerably higher, averaging 36.4% and ranging from 19.0% to 47.6%. This indicates that an additional portion of applicants, while not granted refugee status, are still found to be in need of international protection.

AI Insight: Bar chart of the 2024 refugee recognition rate for South Sudanese nationals in the top 10 countries of asylum, where rates vary significantly from 1.9% to 99.7%., This bar chart displays the 2024 refugee recognition rates for nationals from South Sudan in the ten countries of asylum with the highest number of total decisions. The data highlights a significant disparity in protection outcomes. The recognition rates range dramatically from a low of 1.9% to a high of 99.7%. The median recognition rate across these countries is 33.5%, while the average is 40.9%, suggesting that a few countries with very high rates are skewing the average upwards. The total number of asylum decisions processed also varies widely among these countries, from 863 to 33,340. The chart is ordered by the total number of decisions, not the recognition rate itself, meaning the country with the most decisions may not have the highest or lowest rate. This analysis is crucial for understanding the differing protection environments and asylum system responses faced by South Sudanese refugees globally.

Solutions

Solutions for the Forcibly Displaced

The ultimate aspiration for every forcibly displaced person is a durable solution—be it voluntary repatriation in safety and dignity, local integration, or resettlement to a third country. For refugees and others displaced by the crisis in South Sudan, the path towards such solutions has been characterized by both significant progress and profound setbacks.

Behind the stark numbers lies a story of fluctuating hope. The data reveals a peak in 2019, when more than 276,000 South Sudanese found a durable solution, marking a year of significant achievement. However, this momentum proved difficult to sustain. In the years that followed, the number of solutions contracted sharply, falling to just 927 in 2022. While a modest recovery to 14,655 solutions was recorded in 2023, the overall trend underscores the immense challenges in creating conducive conditions for return or integration. Looking ahead, projections for 2025 indicate a renewed international commitment, with a planned 110,272 solutions, signalling a potential turning point.

A deeper analysis comparing the availability of solutions with new refugee recognitions reveals a critical dynamic. Since 2022, the number of available solutions has vastly outpaced the number of individuals newly granted refugee status. While new recognitions have remained in the hundreds or low thousands annually, the number of solutions offered has scaled into the tens of thousands. This growing divergence suggests a crucial shift in focus: from adjudicating new asylum claims to actively resolving the protracted displacement of the large, existing population of South Sudanese who have been waiting for years to rebuild their lives.

This disparity underscores that the primary challenge is not a new wave of displacement from South Sudan, but rather the urgent need to find lasting answers for the millions already displaced. Turning the ambitious projections for 2025 into reality will require sustained political will, dedicated resources, and unwavering collaboration between host countries, humanitarian partners, and the international community to finally bring an end to their displacement.

AI Insight: * Column chart of durable solutions for forcibly displaced people from South Sudan by year from 2019 to 2025, where the number of solutions peaked significantly in 2019 and sharply declined in subsequent years, with a projected rebound in 2025.*, This column chart illustrates the annual number of durable solutions (such as voluntary repatriation, resettlement, or local integration) for forcibly displaced people originating from South Sudan. The data covers the period from 2019 to 2025, with a notable gap for the year 2021.

A detailed statistical breakdown reveals a highly fluctuating trend. The number of solutions was highest in 2019, with a total of 276,463. This figure saw a substantial drop to 174,463 in 2020. Following the data gap in 2021, the number of solutions plummeted to just 927 in 2022. There was a modest recovery in 2023, with the count rising to 14,655. The figure for 2024 stands at 64, which likely represents incomplete data as of the current date. Projections for 2025 indicate a significant planned increase, with an anticipated 110,272 solutions.

Overall, the analysis shows a peak in solutions in 2019 followed by a dramatic decrease. The projected increase for 2025 suggests a renewed focus or opportunity for finding durable solutions for this population.

AI Insight: Line chart with a shaded area comparing refugee recognitions and available solutions for South Sudan from 2019 to 2025, where the number of available solutions has dramatically surpassed new refugee recognitions since 2022., This is a line chart with a shaded area illustrating the disparity between the number of new refugee recognitions and the number of available durable solutions for individuals from South Sudan between 2019 and 2025. The x-axis represents the years, and the y-axis represents the count of individuals.

Two lines are plotted: 1. ‘Refugee recognitions’ (blue line): This represents the number of individuals from South Sudan newly recognized as refugees each year. 2. ‘Solutions’ (teal line): This represents the number of durable solutions available, such as resettlement, voluntary repatriation, or local integration.

The shaded area between the lines visually emphasizes the gap between these two metrics.

Detailed Analysis:

  • Refugee Recognitions: The number of new recognitions has remained relatively low throughout the period. It started at 188 in 2019, dipped to 117 in 2020, rose to 236 in 2021, and dropped to zero in 2022. It then increased to 286 in 2023 and saw a significant jump to 1,473 in 2024, with a projected slight increase to 1,503 in 2025.

  • Available Solutions: The number of available solutions was zero in 2019 and 2020. Data for 2021 is missing. In 2022, solutions became available for 927 individuals, significantly outpacing recognitions. This trend accelerated dramatically in 2023 with 14,655 solutions. After a sharp drop to just 64 in 2024, the number of projected solutions skyrockets to 110,272 in 2025.

Key Insight:

The chart clearly shows a widening gap where the number of available solutions vastly exceeds the number of new refugee recognitions, particularly from 2022 onwards. While new recognitions remain in the hundreds or low thousands, solutions have reached into the tens of thousands, highlighting a significant disparity between the scale of available durable solutions and the rate of new status determinations for this population.

Footnotes from title: * a: Refugee recognitions * b: Solutions