Nigeria: Country Report | 2024

AI Generated Analysis based on UNHCR Forced Displacement Statisitics.

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Executive Summary

Of course. Here is the ‘Key Trends’ executive summary for the High Commissioner.

Population Overview

Population Overview: A Protracted Internal Crisis

The scale of forced displacement in Nigeria continued to expand, reaching 3.56 million people of concern by early 2024. This constitutes a rise of over 142,000 individuals compared to the previous year, underscoring the escalating and unresolved nature of the country’s humanitarian challenges. The data reveals that this crisis is overwhelmingly characterized by internal displacement, a trend that has remained entrenched over the past five years.

Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) number over 3.43 million, accounting for more than 96 per cent of the total displaced population. This immense figure, which grew by nearly 120,000 in the last year alone, is driven largely by protracted conflict and insecurity in the country’s northern regions. The sheer magnitude of the IDP population dwarfs all other groups of concern, demanding a humanitarian response of significant scale and focus.

Behind these stark numbers lies a demographic profile of acute vulnerability. The displaced population is exceptionally young, with a wide base of children and youth indicative of a high dependency ratio. Furthermore, a significant gender imbalance exists, with females constituting nearly 58 per cent of the total. This disproportionately exposes women and girls to heightened protection risks and necessitates targeted, gender-sensitive programming to address their specific needs.

While internal displacement dominates the landscape, Nigeria also provides refuge to those fleeing across its borders. The vast majority—over 81 per cent of the 96,400 refugees—are from Cameroon, a direct consequence of the ongoing crisis in that country’s Northwest and Southwest regions. The scale of other refugee populations remains comparatively small, highlighting the specific and concentrated nature of cross-border displacement into Nigeria. Together, these trends paint a picture of a nation grappling with a profound internal crisis while simultaneously serving as a key sanctuary for its neighbours.

Demographics

AI Insight: Treemap of the different populations of concern in Nigeria, where Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) constitute over 96% of the total 3.56 million individuals., This treemap illustrates the distribution of the 3,560,000 persons of concern in Nigeria as of 2024. The size of each rectangle is proportional to the size of the population group it represents.

The visualization highlights a significant concentration in one category. Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) are by far the largest group, numbering 3,432,959, which accounts for approximately 96.4% of the total population of concern. This underscores that internal displacement is the primary humanitarian challenge in the country.

The remaining categories are substantially smaller. These include Returned IDPs (35,721), refugees, asylum-seekers, returned refugees (5), and other persons of concern. The statistical profile shows a median population size of just 309 for a given category, further emphasizing the extreme skew in the data. The vast difference in scale between the IDP population and all other groups indicates that while the needs of all populations are important, the response to internal displacement requires a significantly larger scale of resources and programmatic focus.

AI Insight: Population pyramid of people of concern in Nigeria by age and gender for 2024, where the population structure is very young and there is a significantly larger proportion of females than males., This population pyramid displays the age and gender distribution of the 7,856,849 individuals of concern (including refugees, asylum-seekers, and IDPs) in Nigeria as of 2024. The chart is structured with five age groups on the vertical axis and the percentage of the total population on the horizontal axis, split by gender.

The overall shape is expansive, with a very wide base and a narrow top, which is characteristic of a young population with high birth rates and a high dependency ratio. The most prominent feature is a significant gender imbalance. Females constitute a larger portion of the population across most age brackets, making up approximately 57.5% of the total, compared to 42.5% for males.

Statistically, the largest single demographic is females in the youngest age group (likely 0-4), accounting for 27.9% of the entire population. The proportions of females in the other four age groups range from 2.4% to 13.7%. For the male population, the largest age group represents 15.7% of the total, with other cohorts ranging from 1.4% to 12.8%. The data has 100% gender disaggregation, reinforcing the reliability of this observed imbalance, which has critical implications for targeted programming and protection activities.

Geography & Movements

Geography of Displacement: The Nigerian Context

The geography of forced displacement connected to Nigeria reveals a crisis that is overwhelmingly internal in nature. The data reveals that the vast majority of Nigerians displaced by conflict and violence remain within their country’s borders, with the number of internally displaced persons (IDPs) exceeding 3.4 million as of 2024. This single figure dwarfs all other movements, highlighting that for millions, safety is sought not across borders but in other parts of their own country. Behind these stark numbers lies the protracted insurgency in the northeast and inter-communal violence in other regions, which continue to compel families to flee.

For those who have crossed international borders, movement remains predominantly regional. Neighboring countries, particularly Cameroon, Niger, and Chad, host the largest populations of Nigerian refugees and asylum-seekers. This pattern underscores the localized impact of the Lake Chad Basin conflict, where instability in one country has direct and significant consequences for its neighbors, straining resources and protection capacity.

Conversely, Nigeria itself serves as a critical country of asylum for people fleeing instability in the region. However, the refugee population it hosts is highly concentrated. As of 2024, refugees from Cameroon number over 78,000, an extreme outlier that constitutes the vast majority of all refugees in the country. In stark contrast, the median population size from other origin countries is fewer than 500 people, illustrating that Nigeria’s role as a host is almost entirely defined by the crisis in Cameroon.

This dual reality—hosting a significant refugee population from a specific crisis while simultaneously grappling with one of the world’s largest internal displacement situations—underscores the complex and immense humanitarian challenges facing Nigeria and its neighbors. Analysis of trends from 2019 to 2025 confirms that the scale of internal displacement consistently and significantly surpasses the refugee population hosted in the country, cementing it as the most pressing protection and assistance challenge.

AI Insight: Choropleth map of destination countries for displaced people from Nigeria, where the highest concentration by far is internally displaced persons within Nigeria itself, followed by neighboring countries., This choropleth map visualizes the global distribution of displaced populations originating from Nigeria as of 2024. This includes refugees, asylum-seekers, internally displaced persons (IDPs), and other populations of concern to UNHCR. The data reveals that the overwhelming majority of displacement occurs within Nigeria’s own borders, with the number of IDPs exceeding 3.4 million. This single figure dominates the dataset, creating a significant statistical skew where the mean number of displaced persons per country (40,200) is vastly higher than the median (33). Regionally, the highest concentrations of Nigerian refugees and asylum-seekers are found in neighboring countries, particularly Cameroon, Niger, and Chad, largely driven by the ongoing conflict in the Lake Chad Basin. Smaller but significant populations are also located in European countries. The primary driver for this displacement is the long-standing insurgency in Northeast Nigeria, alongside inter-communal violence in other regions. A key limitation of this visualization is that data is unavailable for 142 of the 241 countries shown, meaning the map provides an incomplete picture of the total Nigerian displaced population globally.

Origin of Displaced Populations

AI Insight: Horizontal bar chart of the number of refugees in Nigeria by their top 9 countries of origin in 2024, where the vast majority of refugees are from Cameroon., This horizontal bar chart details the primary countries of origin for refugees in Nigeria for the year 2024. The data illustrates a highly skewed distribution, dominated by a single country of origin.

Statistically, the dataset covers 10 categories (the top 9 countries and an ‘Other’ category). The most significant finding is the refugee population from Cameroon, which stands at 78,356 individuals (the maximum value in the dataset). This figure is an extreme outlier and represents the vast majority of refugees in the country. In contrast, the refugee populations from other countries are substantially smaller. The median population size from an origin country is just 487 people, and 75% of the listed origin countries account for fewer than 888 refugees each. The smallest group from a top country of origin consists of 59 people. This disparity highlights that the humanitarian situation for refugees in Nigeria is predominantly shaped by the crisis leading to displacement from Cameroon.

AI Insight: Alluvial chart of the forcibly displaced population in Nigeria by origin from 2019 to 2025, where the vast majority are internally displaced persons from within Nigeria., This alluvial chart illustrates the evolution of the forcibly displaced population hosted in Nigeria from 2019 to 2025. The visualization breaks down the total population by their country of origin, segmented into three categories: Nigeria (representing Internally Displaced Persons, or IDPs), Cameroon, and ‘Other’ origins. The most striking feature of the data is the overwhelming scale of internal displacement; the number of IDPs from within Nigeria consistently and significantly surpasses the number of refugees and asylum-seekers from other countries combined. Over the observed period, the size of any single population group in a given year ranges from a low of 2,699 to a high of 3,575,114 people. This situation reflects the severe and ongoing security challenges within Nigeria, which have forced millions to flee their homes. The population from Cameroon primarily consists of refugees escaping regional conflict. The chart effectively highlights that while Nigeria is a host country for refugees, its most significant humanitarian challenge is the massive internal displacement crisis affecting its own citizens. Figures for future years are based on projections.

Destination

AI Insight: Bar chart of the top 10 destination countries for forcibly displaced people from Nigeria as of 2024, where the vast majority are internally displaced within Nigeria itself., This vertical bar chart displays the top ten destination countries for people forcibly displaced from Nigeria. The data is dominated by a single category: Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) within Nigeria, which stands at 30,951,355. This figure is substantially larger than any external destination, highlighting that the displacement crisis is primarily internal. The distribution of the data is extremely skewed, with a mean of approximately 3.6 million, heavily influenced by the IDP figure, while the median for the top ten locations is 266,784. The second-highest destination hosts a population of around 1.1 million people (the 75th percentile). The remaining top destinations host populations ranging from the minimum of 95,515 to several hundred thousand. The chart effectively visualizes that while there are significant numbers of Nigerian refugees and asylum-seekers abroad, the scale of internal displacement is an order of magnitude greater.

Asylum System

Pressure on Asylum Systems

Global asylum systems continued to face significant strain in 2024, grappling with a growing volume of new claims and substantial pre-existing backlogs. The data reveals a stark illustration of this challenge in Nigeria, where the gap between cumulative asylum applications and the number of decisions rendered has progressively widened since 2020. This growing caseload, now exceeding 81,000 pending applications, signifies an increase in processing times, extending periods of profound uncertainty for individuals and families seeking safety.

Behind these stark numbers, a deeper analysis of Refugee Status Determination (RSD) outcomes in Nigeria points to systemic pressures. Of the nearly 80,000 decisions recorded in 2024, the largest single category of outcomes was not a substantive decision on the merits of a protection claim, but rather cases that were ‘Otherwise closed’. This category, which often includes applicants who have withdrawn their claim or lost contact with authorities, suggests that lengthy and complex procedures may lead to disengagement from the asylum process.

The data also underscores a profound disparity in protection outcomes, heavily dependent on an individual’s country of origin and the country in which they seek asylum. For instance, among the top 10 nationalities seeking refuge in Nigeria, refugee recognition rates in 2024 ranged dramatically from as high as 99 per cent for one group to less than 1 per cent for another. This inconsistency is mirrored in the experiences of those seeking protection abroad. For Nigerian nationals, recognition rates in their top 10 countries of asylum were similarly varied, spanning from 40 per cent in one country to nearly zero in another, even where thousands of decisions were made.

Compounding these systemic challenges is the high volatility of displacement flows, which makes resource planning difficult. The number of asylum applications lodged by Nigerians abroad, for example, has fluctuated significantly over the past five years, with yearly totals varying from a few hundred to over 33,000. Taken together, these trends paint a picture of asylum systems under considerable duress. The widening gap between claims and capacity, coupled with highly variable outcomes, highlights the urgent need for enhanced resources and investment in fair and efficient procedures to uphold the principles of refugee protection.

AI Insight: Bar chart of Nigerian asylum applications and decisions from 2019 to 2024, where the total numbers show significant fluctuation and high variability across the years., This bar chart displays the annual totals for asylum applications and decisions concerning Nigerian nationals from 2019 to 2024. The data is categorized into three distinct stages of the asylum process.

Statistically, the data reveals high volatility. The total count for any given stage in a year ranges from a low of 174 to a peak of 33,174. The average (mean) value across all data points is 9,674, while the median is significantly lower at 2,336. This large discrepancy indicates a right-skewed distribution, meaning that most data points are on the lower end, but a few instances of extremely high numbers pull the average up. The high standard deviation of 11,250 further confirms the wide dispersion and lack of consistency in the yearly figures.

An important contextual note is that these figures represent the number of applications or decisions, not unique individuals, as one person may submit multiple applications under certain circumstances. These fluctuations can be influenced by various factors, including changing conditions in Nigeria, evolving asylum policies in host countries, and shifts in processing capacity.

AI Insight: Parallel sets plot of Refugee Status Determination decisions in Nigeria for 2024, where out of 79,371 total decisions, the largest flow consists of cases that were ‘Otherwise closed’., This parallel sets plot visualizes the outcomes of 79,371 Refugee Status Determination (RSD) decisions recorded for Nigeria in 2024. The chart displays flows between different stages of the asylum process, with the thickness of each flow corresponding to the number of individuals.

The data reveals a highly skewed distribution of outcomes. The primary finding is that the majority of cases did not result in a final decision on the merits of the protection claim. Specifically: - Otherwise Closed: This is the largest category, encompassing cases closed for administrative reasons, such as the applicant withdrawing their claim or losing contact with the authorities. This accounts for the largest flow, indicating a significant portion of the caseload is resolved without a substantive decision. - Recognized (Refugee Status): A smaller flow represents individuals granted refugee status under the 1951 Convention. - Rejected: Another significant flow represents applications that were substantively assessed and denied protection. - Complementary Protection: This flow represents individuals who did not qualify for refugee status but were granted a form of complementary or subsidiary protection.

The dominance of the ‘Otherwise closed’ category suggests potential challenges within the asylum system, such as long processing times leading to applicant disengagement, or administrative backlogs being cleared. Analyzing the specific reasons for these closures is critical for understanding the efficiency and fairness of the RSD process in Nigeria.

AI Insight: Area chart of cumulative asylum applications versus decisions in Nigeria from 2020 to 2024, where the gap between applications received and decisions made widens over time, indicating a growing backlog., This area chart visualizes the trend of asylum case processing in Nigeria between 2020 and 2024. The vertical y-axis represents the cumulative total of cases, while the horizontal x-axis marks the years.

Two primary data series are shown: the upper line represents cumulative asylum applications, and the lower line represents cumulative first instance decisions. The shaded area between these two lines highlights the ‘gap’—the total number of pending cases awaiting a decision.

The key statistical trend is the progressive widening of this gap. While both applications and decisions are increasing cumulatively, the rate of new applications is consistently outpacing the system’s capacity to adjudicate them. The dataset shows a maximum cumulative value of 81,893 cases. This growing backlog signifies an increase in the average processing time for asylum seekers, extending the period of uncertainty for individuals and families seeking international protection in Nigeria.

Recognition Rates

AI Insight: Horizontal bar chart of the 2024 Refugee Recognition Rate in Nigeria for the top 10 countries of origin by decision volume, where the recognition rate varies dramatically from a high of 99% to a low of less than 1%., This horizontal bar chart presents the 2024 refugee recognition rates in Nigeria for asylum seekers from the 10 countries with the highest number of asylum decisions. The countries are ordered vertically by the total number of decisions made, not by the recognition rate itself.

The analysis is based on data for 10 countries of origin. Across these countries, a total of 77,540 decisions were made on average per country, although this is skewed by a country with 52,647 decisions. The median number of decisions is 1,518.

The primary metric, the Refugee Recognition Rate, shows significant disparity. The rate ranges from a minimum of 0.34% to a maximum of 99.0%. The mean recognition rate across these top 10 countries is 47.5%, with a median of 49.2%. This indicates a wide variation in outcomes for asylum seekers depending on their nationality. The ‘Total Recognition Rate’, which includes complementary forms of protection, is slightly higher (mean 49.7%) but follows a similar pattern, as the number of individuals granted complementary protection is low (mean of 26.5 cases).

AI Insight: Bar chart of the 2024 Refugee Recognition Rate for nationals from Nigeria by Country of Asylum, where rates vary significantly across the top 10 countries from nearly 0% to 40%., This bar chart presents the 2024 refugee recognition rates for asylum seekers from Nigeria across the 10 countries of asylum with the highest number of total decisions. The chart is ordered by the total volume of decisions made, not by the recognition rate itself. The data reveals a stark disparity in outcomes depending on the country of asylum. Statistically, the average recognition rate across these 10 countries is 10.2%, with a median of 5.8%, indicating that a few countries with higher rates pull the average up. The rates range dramatically from a minimum of 0.02% to a maximum of 40%. When complementary protection is included, the average total recognition rate rises to 13.4%. The total number of decisions processed in these countries ranges from 20,032 to 149,353, underscoring that countries processing the most applications are not necessarily those with the highest acceptance rates.

Solutions

Solutions

The path to durable solutions for the world’s displaced remains fraught with challenges, a reality starkly illustrated by the data concerning Nigeria, both as a country of origin and as a host nation. The search for safety and stability is often a long and arduous journey, and while moments of significant progress occur, they are frequently exceptions rather than the norm.

Analysis of solutions for forcibly displaced people originating from Nigeria reveals a period of extraordinary progress. In 2021, a remarkable peak was recorded, with the number of solutions surging more than tenfold compared to the 2019-2020 baseline. In that year alone, over 205,000 individuals benefited from a single solution type, suggesting a significant, large-scale initiative, such as a major voluntary repatriation programme or a policy change facilitating local integration in a host country. However, this momentum was not sustained. While the number of solutions in subsequent years remained above pre-2021 levels, they fell sharply from the peak, underscoring the episodic nature of such breakthroughs and the difficulty in maintaining pathways to durable solutions at scale.

A contrasting and more challenging picture emerges when examining the situation for refugees hosted within Nigeria. Here, the data reveals a persistent and profound gap between protection needs and available solutions. In most years, the number of newly recognized refugees significantly surpassed the pathways to a stable future. A notable exception occurred in 2020, when nearly 18,300 solutions were provided, likely addressing a backlog of cases from the previous year when over 19,000 people were granted refugee status.

Beyond this anomaly, the provision of solutions has dwindled to negligible levels. This trend is particularly alarming given projections of a sharp increase in new refugee recognitions by 2025. Taken together, these trends paint a dual narrative. While large-scale solutions for Nigerians abroad have proven possible, demonstrating the impact of concerted political will, the outlook for refugees hosted in Nigeria points to a growing crisis. The widening chasm between the granting of protection and the ability to rebuild a life in safety and dignity highlights a critical challenge for the international community and host states alike.

AI Insight: Column chart of durable solutions for forcibly displaced people from Nigeria from 2019 to 2024, where the number of solutions peaked dramatically in 2021 before decreasing in subsequent years., This column chart displays the annual trends in the number of durable solutions for forcibly displaced people originating from Nigeria for the years 2019 to 2024. The data reveals a significant fluctuation over this period, with a pronounced peak in 2021.

Statistical Breakdown by Year: - 2019-2020: The period began with relatively stable and low numbers. In 2019, the average count of solutions was approximately 4,589, and in 2020, it was 4,570. The maximum number of people benefiting from a single solution type was 18,356 and 18,279, respectively. - 2021: This year marks a dramatic anomaly. The average number of solutions surged more than tenfold to 51,300, with the highest value for a single solution type reaching 205,201. This suggests a major event, policy change, or reporting adjustment that led to a massive increase in solutions like voluntary repatriation, resettlement, or local integration. - 2022: Following the peak, the number of solutions decreased but remained elevated compared to the pre-2021 period. The average was 34,917, with a maximum of 139,622. - 2023-2024: The numbers saw a significant drop from the 2021-2022 highs, stabilizing at a new, higher baseline than before the peak. In 2023, the average was 8,788, and in 2024 it was 8,932. The maximum values were 35,131 and 35,721, respectively.

In summary, the chart’s primary insight is the extraordinary spike in durable solutions recorded in 2021 for Nigerians, followed by a return to more moderate, though still elevated, levels in the subsequent years.

AI Insight: Dual-axis line chart of refugee recognitions versus available solutions in Nigeria from 2019 to 2025, where refugee recognitions have been highly volatile and generally far exceed the number of available solutions, with a notable spike in solutions in 2020., This dual-axis line chart presents a time-series analysis comparing the number of new refugee recognitions against the number of durable solutions provided for refugees in Nigeria, with data from 2019 and projections to 2025.

Statistical Analysis

Refugee Recognitions (Blue Line): The number of refugee recognitions shows significant fluctuation. It started at a high of 19,376 in 2019 before plummeting to just 443 in 2020. For the next three years, the numbers remained low: 433 in 2021, 504 in 2022, and 174 in 2023. A moderate increase to 4,198 is observed in 2024, followed by a substantial projected spike to 28,411 in 2025.

Available Solutions (Teal Line): The trend for solutions is equally volatile but follows a different pattern. In 2019 and 2021, the number of solutions was zero. A massive, anomalous spike occurred in 2020, with 18,279 solutions recorded. Following this peak, the numbers dropped to negligible levels: 47 in 2022, 21 in 2023, and just 5 in 2024. Data for 2025 is not available.

Key Insights and Context

The primary insight from the visualization is the profound and persistent gap between the need for protection (indicated by recognitions) and the availability of durable solutions.

  • In most years, the number of newly recognized refugees far surpasses the number of solutions found. For instance, in 2019, over 19,000 people were recognized as refugees, while no solutions were reported.
  • The year 2020 stands out as a major exception, where the number of solutions (18,279) almost equaled the number of recognitions from the previous year. This could indicate a large-scale resettlement or repatriation program that addressed a backlog from 2019.
  • From 2021 onwards, the gap widens again, with solutions becoming extremely scarce while recognitions, particularly the projection for 2025, are set to increase dramatically. This points to a growing challenge in finding lasting solutions for the refugee population in Nigeria.