Mozambique: Country Report | 2024

AI Generated Analysis based on UNHCR Forced Displacement Statisitics.

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Executive Summary

Key Trends: The Mozambique Crisis in 2024

Mozambique stands at the epicenter of a profound and multifaceted displacement crisis, demanding urgent and sustained international attention. The humanitarian landscape is dominated by an internal emergency of immense scale, with a staggering 580,000 internally displaced persons (IDPs)—over 95 per cent of all populations of concern—driven from their homes by persistent conflict in the northern regions. This is a crisis of the vulnerable; a majority are women and girls, and the overwhelmingly young population faces acute risks to their safety, education, and future.

This internal turmoil unfolds within a complex regional dynamic. While Mozambique continues to generously host refugees from the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Burundi, it is simultaneously a major country of origin for the forcibly displaced. The burden of this outflow is borne almost entirely by its neighbours, demonstrating the principle of regional solidarity under immense strain. South Africa alone hosts over 5.7 million forcibly displaced people from Mozambique, with Malawi and Zimbabwe also hosting over a million each. This underscores the shared responsibility of the international community to support host nations that are shouldering a disproportionate share of the crisis.

Despite some notable progress, the path to durable solutions remains fraught with challenges. A significant, project-driven spike in returns and local integration for IDPs in 2023 offered a temporary beacon of hope, but this momentum has since stalled, highlighting the fragility of gains without continued investment. More alarmingly, this progress has not extended to all populations. The national asylum system is under severe pressure, evidenced by a growing backlog of applications. Critically, the data reveals a stark protection gap: zero new refugee statuses were granted in the reporting period, while Mozambican nationals seeking safety abroad faced a median recognition rate of zero, leaving thousands in protracted uncertainty.

This comprehensive picture reveals a nation caught between a massive internal crisis, its responsibilities as a host country, and the immense hurdles its own people face in finding safety abroad. Without robust support for both emergency response and strengthening national protection systems, the stability of Mozambique and the entire region remains at risk.

Population Overview

Population Overview: Mozambique

The humanitarian landscape in Mozambique remains dominated by the vast scale of internal displacement, a crisis that has escalated dramatically since 2019 due to persistent conflict in the country’s northern regions. By 2024, internally displaced persons (IDPs) numbered nearly 580,000, constituting over 95 per cent of all populations of concern to UNHCR in the country. This overwhelming majority underscores where the most acute needs are concentrated.

While the latest data indicates a marginal decrease of 0.9 per cent in the total number of IDPs between 2023 and 2024, this slight reduction does little to alter the immense scale of the crisis. The overall number of forcibly displaced and stateless persons remains alarmingly high, with the sustained impact of the conflict continuing to shape the country’s protection environment.

Behind these stark numbers lies a deeply vulnerable population. Demographic data reveals an expansive population pyramid, characteristic of a very young population where children and youth are disproportionately represented. Women and girls comprise a majority of the displaced (approximately 54 per cent), highlighting the critical need for targeted interventions, including child protection, primary education, and services to prevent and respond to sexual and gender-based violence (SGBV).

Beyond its internal challenges, Mozambique continues to provide refuge for those fleeing regional instability. The country hosts a refugee population originating primarily from the Democratic Republic of the Congo, which accounts for the largest group of refugees, alongside smaller populations from other neighbouring crises. This dual role—as a nation grappling with a massive internal crisis while also serving as a host to refugees from abroad—illustrates the complex and multifaceted protection challenges facing Mozambique and its people.

Demographics

AI Insight: Treemap of populations of concern in Mozambique, where Internally Displaced Persons constitute the vast majority of the total 604,000 individuals., This treemap visualizes the breakdown of the 604,000 individuals considered populations of concern to UNHCR in Mozambique as of 2024. The data is overwhelmingly dominated by a single category: Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs), who number 577,545, accounting for approximately 95.6% of the total. This group’s rectangle occupies the vast majority of the chart’s area, underscoring the scale of internal displacement. The remaining populations of concern are significantly smaller and are listed in descending order of size: Returnees (12,125), Asylum-seekers (9,219), Returned IDPs (5,090), Refugees (2,009), and Returned refugees (12). The category ‘Others of concern’ has a value of zero. This distribution highlights that the primary humanitarian challenge in Mozambique is the internal displacement crisis, largely driven by conflict in the northern regions.

AI Insight: Population pyramid of forcibly displaced and stateless persons in Mozambique by age and gender, where the population is predominantly young, with females comprising a larger proportion than males across most age groups., This population pyramid illustrates the age and gender distribution of the 3,114,296 refugees, asylum-seekers, internally displaced persons, and other persons of concern in Mozambique as of 2024. The data has 100% gender disaggregation.

Overall Structure and Key Insights: The pyramid displays an ‘expansive’ shape, characterized by a very wide base and progressively narrowing bars for older age groups. This structure is indicative of a very young population, likely resulting from high birth rates and/or recent displacement events involving a high proportion of families with children.

Age and Gender Distribution: - Youth Population: A significant majority of the population is young. The 0-4 age group is the largest single cohort, with females in this bracket accounting for 24.1% of the total female population and males accounting for 18.9% of the total male population. - Gender Imbalance: There is a notable gender imbalance, with females outnumbering males. Across all age groups, the average proportion for females is 10.8% per age bracket, compared to 9.2% for males. This suggests that approximately 54% of the total population is female, while 46% is male.

Statistical Summary: - The population is divided into five standard age brackets (likely 0-4, 5-11, 12-17, 18-59, 60+). - For females, the proportion per age group ranges from a low of 3.86% to a high of 24.1%. - For males, the proportion per age group ranges from 1.93% to 18.9%.

Programmatic Implications: The demographic profile highlights critical needs for humanitarian response. The large child and youth population underscores a high demand for services such as child protection, primary education, nutrition programs, and maternal and child healthcare. The higher proportion of women and girls calls for targeted interventions, including sexual and gender-based violence (SGBV) prevention and response, and access to reproductive health services.

Geography & Movements

Mozambique: A Nexus of Internal and Cross-Border Displacement

The displacement landscape related to Mozambique presents a complex, multi-faceted crisis, positioning the nation simultaneously as a significant source of displaced people, a host country for refugees, and the epicentre of a large-scale internal emergency.

The data reveals a dramatic humanitarian trend within Mozambique’s own borders. The primary driver of displacement has been the escalating conflict and insecurity, particularly in the northern Cabo Delgado province. This has led to an exponential rise in the number of Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs), which grew from a relatively small figure in 2019 to a peak of over one million. This internal crisis far surpasses the scale of the refugee and asylum-seeker population hosted by the country, which has remained comparatively low and stable at around 25,000 individuals during the same period.

While grappling with this internal emergency, Mozambique continues to provide sanctuary to those fleeing persecution from elsewhere in the region. The country hosts 5,479 refugees and asylum-seekers, with the largest populations originating from the Democratic Republic of the Congo (2,936) and Burundi (1,180). This highlights Mozambique’s role in shouldering regional protection responsibilities even amidst its own considerable challenges.

Conversely, Mozambique is a significant country of origin for forcibly displaced populations, with movements characterized by a highly concentrated pattern. The overwhelming majority have sought protection in neighbouring countries, placing substantial burdens on host communities. The data starkly illustrates this reality: South Africa alone hosts over 5.7 million forcibly displaced people from Mozambique. Other neighbouring states, including Malawi (1.42 million) and Zimbabwe (1.41 million), also host considerable populations. Behind these stark numbers is a story of a regional crisis where the vast majority of those forced to flee remain within the region, underscoring the critical need for robust international support for the primary host nations.

AI Insight: Choropleth map of destination countries for displaced people from Mozambique, where the vast majority are concentrated in one primary destination country., This choropleth map illustrates the global distribution of refugees, asylum-seekers, and other persons of concern originating from Mozambique as of 2024. The dataset reveals a highly concentrated pattern of displacement. Out of 241 potential destination countries, data is available for 22. The distribution among these countries is extremely skewed: one single country hosts a maximum of 577,545 individuals, while the median number of displaced persons in a destination country is only 11. The mean is 26,700, a figure heavily inflated by the single large outlier. This statistical profile indicates that while a small number of Mozambicans are dispersed globally, the overwhelming majority have sought protection in one primary host nation.

Origin of Displaced Populations

AI Insight: Horizontal bar chart of the number of refugees in Mozambique by their top countries of origin in 2024, where the Democratic Republic of the Congo is the largest source with 2,936 individuals., This horizontal bar chart displays the population of refugees in Mozambique by their primary countries of origin for the year 2024. The data is ranked in descending order, showing the six largest groups.

The Democratic Republic of the Congo is the most significant country of origin, with 2,936 refugees. This is followed by Burundi with 1,180 refugees, Somalia with 820, and Rwanda with 508. The two smallest groups shown are from Sudan with 30 refugees and a ‘Various/Other’ category with 5 individuals.

Statistically, the distribution is heavily skewed, with the population from the Democratic Republic of the Congo being more than double that of the next largest group (Burundi). The total number of refugees from these six origins is 5,479. The mean number of refugees per origin is 895, while the median is 664, reflecting the influence of the higher values.

AI Insight: Alluvial chart of the forcibly displaced population in Mozambique by origin from 2019 to 2025, where the number of internally displaced Mozambicans dramatically increased, making up the vast majority of the total displaced population., This alluvial chart visualizes the change in the composition of the forcibly displaced population within Mozambique from 2019 to 2025. It tracks two distinct flows: individuals originating from within Mozambique (Internally Displaced Persons - IDPs) and those from other countries (primarily refugees and asylum-seekers).

A statistical analysis reveals a dramatic humanitarian trend. The number of forcibly displaced people from ‘Other’ countries remains relatively low and stable throughout the period, fluctuating around 25,000 individuals. In stark contrast, the number of IDPs originating from Mozambique experiences an exponential rise, growing from a few tens of thousands to a peak of over one million people.

This significant increase in internal displacement is primarily driven by the escalating conflict and insecurity in Mozambique’s northern Cabo Delgado province. The chart effectively illustrates that the displacement crisis affecting Mozambique during this period is predominantly an internal one, with the number of IDPs far surpassing the refugee and asylum-seeker population.

Destination

AI Insight: Bar chart of the top 10 destination countries for forcibly displaced people from Mozambique, where South Africa is the primary destination, hosting over 5.7 million people., This vertical bar chart displays the top ten countries of asylum for forcibly displaced populations originating from Mozambique as of 2024. The data highlights a highly skewed distribution, with one country hosting a vast majority of the displaced population.

The data for the top ten countries is as follows: 1. South Africa: 5,728,671 2. Malawi: 1,421,490 3. Zimbabwe: 1,412,382 4. Germany: 574,868 5. United Republic of Tanzania: 361,224 6. Portugal: 352,116 7. Eswatini: 161,643 8. Zambia: 65,577 9. Botswana: 61,642 10. Kenya: 1,191

Statistical analysis shows a mean of approximately 1.36 million people across these countries, but the median is significantly lower at 356,670, confirming the right-skewed distribution. South Africa alone accounts for a substantial portion of the total, hosting over four times as many people as the next leading country, Malawi. This underscores the critical role of neighboring countries, especially South Africa, as the main destinations for those displaced from Mozambique.

Asylum System

Pressures on National Asylum Systems

National asylum systems continue to face immense strain from new and protracted displacement situations, testing their capacity to provide timely and fair protection. The data from Mozambique illustrates this trend, where national authorities processed a significant volume of nearly 29,000 refugee status determination (RSD) decisions in 2024 alone.

Behind this high number of decisions, however, lies a significant operational challenge. The data reveals a progressively widening gap between the cumulative number of asylum applications lodged and the decisions rendered since 2020. This growing backlog indicates that the pace of new arrivals and applications is outpacing the system’s processing capacity, leading to prolonged uncertainty for thousands of asylum-seekers awaiting a decision on their claim for international protection.

An analysis of the decisions made in 2024 shows a highly differentiated approach to protection. Recognition rates varied considerably depending on the country of origin, ranging from as low as 0.6 per cent to as high as 20.5 per cent for the main nationalities seeking safety in Mozambique. This highlights the protection-sensitive nature of the adjudication process, tailored to the specific circumstances compelling individuals to flee their home countries.

In stark contrast, the data reveals a challenging protection environment for Mozambican nationals seeking asylum abroad. In the 10 countries that adjudicated the most claims from Mozambicans in 2024, the median refugee recognition rate was zero. This indicates that for the majority of Mozambican asylum-seekers, the prospect of being granted international protection remains exceedingly remote, underscoring the complex and often reciprocal nature of displacement flows in the region. The dual reality of a domestic system under pressure and its own nationals facing significant hurdles to protection elsewhere paints a comprehensive picture of the challenges confronting asylum mechanisms globally.

AI Insight: Bar chart of asylum applications and decisions in Mozambique from 2019 to 2024, where the total number of cases fluctuates significantly, reaching a maximum of 1,670 in one instance., This bar chart displays the number of asylum applications and decisions in Mozambique between 2019 and 2024. The data is categorized into three distinct stages of the asylum process. The vertical axis represents the total count of cases, while the horizontal axis represents the year. Statistical analysis shows that the total number of cases per category varies widely, with a minimum of 0 and a maximum of 1,670. The average number of cases across all categories and years is 582, with a median value of 624. It is important to note that these figures represent the volume of applications and decisions, not the number of unique individuals, as one person may submit multiple applications.

AI Insight: Sankey diagram of Refugee Status Determination outcomes in Mozambique for 2024, showing the flow of 28,885 decisions from initial stages to final outcomes, including recognized refugee status, rejections, and other case closures., This parallel sets plot, or Sankey diagram, provides a detailed visualization of the outcomes of 28,885 Refugee Status Determination (RSD) decisions recorded in Mozambique in 2024. The chart illustrates the flow of individuals through different stages of the asylum process.

The diagram is organized into vertical axes that represent distinct stages, such as the type of application, the decision-making body, and the final decision outcome. The bands flowing between these axes vary in thickness, proportionally representing the number of people in each specific pathway.

The primary function of this chart is to disaggregate the total number of decisions to show how many cases resulted in protection (e.g., ‘Refugee Status Granted’), how many were negative (‘Rejected’), and how many were closed for other reasons (e.g., ‘Administratively Closed’). Analysis of the underlying data, which comprises 72 distinct flows, indicates a high degree of variability in the volume of these pathways. While the largest single flow accounts for 8,862 individuals, the median flow size is only 87, suggesting that a few primary outcomes represent the vast majority of decisions. This visualization is critical for analyzing the efficiency and protection-sensitivity of Mozambique’s asylum system.

AI Insight: Area chart of cumulative asylum applications versus decisions in Mozambique from 2020 to 2024, where the gap between applications and decisions widens significantly, indicating an increasing case backlog., This area chart illustrates the trend in asylum case processing in Mozambique for the period 2020 to 2024. The y-axis represents the cumulative total of cases, and the x-axis displays the years. The chart features two data series: one for the cumulative number of registered asylum applications and another for the cumulative number of first-instance decisions made. The shaded area between these two series visually represents the ‘gap,’ which is the backlog of pending cases. The primary insight is that this gap has widened progressively over the years. This indicates that the rate of new applications has consistently outpaced the asylum system’s capacity to adjudicate them, leading to a substantial growth in the number of people awaiting a decision. This growing backlog directly translates to longer average processing times, a critical issue for the well-being and legal status of asylum seekers and a significant operational challenge for the national authorities.

Recognition Rates

AI Insight: Column chart of Refugee Recognition Rate by Country of Origin in Mozambique for 2024, where rates for the top nationalities range from 0.6% to 20.5%., This column chart displays the refugee recognition rates in Mozambique during 2024 for the top 7 countries of origin, ranked by the total number of asylum decisions made. The analysis covers a total of 28,476 decisions, resulting in 3,577 individuals being recognized as refugees.

The refugee recognition rate, calculated as the number of recognized refugees divided by the total decisions, varies significantly across nationalities. The rates range from a low of 0.6% to a high of 20.5%. The mean recognition rate across these groups is 10.7%, with a standard deviation of 8.24%, highlighting the considerable disparity in outcomes. Notably, no individuals were granted complementary protection in this dataset, meaning the total recognition rate is identical to the refugee recognition rate. The chart is ordered by the volume of decisions, not the rate itself, which places the countries with the largest caseloads first, irrespective of their recognition outcome.

AI Insight: Horizontal bar chart of the 2024 refugee recognition rate for Mozambican nationals in the top 10 countries of asylum, where rates are extremely low, with a median of 0%, across most countries., This horizontal bar chart presents the 2024 refugee recognition rates for asylum seekers from Mozambique in the 10 countries that processed the most decisions. The countries are ordered vertically from top to bottom based on the total number of decisions made.

The key insight from the data is the overwhelmingly low recognition rate for Mozambican nationals. The median recognition rate across these 10 countries is 0%, indicating that at least half of these countries did not grant refugee status to any applicants from Mozambique. The average recognition rate is 4.6%, a figure skewed by a maximum rate of 43.4% in one of the countries. This highlights a significant disparity in outcomes, where a positive decision is an exception rather than the norm. The total volume of decisions also varies dramatically, from a low of 40 to a high of 14,359, showing that a few countries handle the vast majority of claims.

Solutions

Solutions

Amid a global landscape where durable solutions remain elusive for millions, specific contexts can offer valuable, if complex, insights. The data for Mozambique reveals a dramatic, yet temporary, breakthrough in finding solutions for the forcibly displaced between 2021 and 2023. After minimal activity in 2021, a significant increase was recorded, peaking at over 70,000 solutions in 2023.

Behind these stark numbers lies the impact of specific, large-scale initiatives rather than a sustained trend. The data indicates that this peak was primarily driven by major voluntary return and local integration programmes, likely benefiting internally displaced populations affected by the conflict in the country’s north. This progress, while commendable, proved to be finite. The subsequent sharp decline to just over 1,200 solutions by early 2024 signals the conclusion of these intensive efforts, highlighting the fragility of such gains without continued momentum and support.

However, a more nuanced picture emerges when examining the pathways to solutions for different displaced groups. A concerning disparity is evident when comparing the availability of solutions to formal protection mechanisms. Notably, while a variable number of solution opportunities were available annually, the number of new refugee status recognitions remained at zero throughout the reporting period from 2019 to 2024.

This disconnect underscores a critical dynamic: while significant progress was made in facilitating solutions for IDPs, particularly in 2022 and 2023, systemic challenges may persist within the asylum system. The data strongly suggests that the focus of solutions has been almost exclusively on the internally displaced, leaving a potential protection gap for those seeking refugee status. For solutions to be truly durable, they must be underpinned by sustained political will, adequate funding, and robust protection frameworks that address the needs of all displaced populations, including asylum-seekers and refugees.

AI Insight: Column chart of the number of durable solutions for forcibly displaced people in Mozambique from 2021 to 2025, where a dramatic peak occurred in 2022 and 2023, followed by a sharp decline., This column chart displays the annual trend of durable solutions for forcibly displaced people related to Mozambique, covering the period from 2021 to 2025. The y-axis represents the number of solutions, while the x-axis represents the year.

The data reveals a significant and anomalous spike in activity during 2022 and 2023. - In 2021, the number of solutions was minimal, with a mean value of only 13.5. - This figure surged dramatically in 2022 to a mean of 67,682 and peaked in 2023 with a mean of 70,270. - Following this peak, the numbers dropped sharply in 2024 to a mean of 1,276, with a slight increase projected for 2025 to a mean of 1,646.

The extreme difference between the median (p50) and the maximum (p100) values, particularly in 2022 (p50=113, p100=270,502) and 2023 (p50=45, p100=280,988), indicates that the high averages in these years were driven by one or a few very large-scale solution events, such as a major repatriation or local integration program. The sharp decline in 2024 suggests the conclusion of this specific initiative. The data being ‘as of 2024’ may also imply that figures for 2024 and 2025 are partial or projected.

AI Insight: Line chart comparing refugee recognitions and available solutions in Mozambique from 2019 to 2024, where available solutions consistently surpassed refugee recognitions, which remained at zero throughout the period., This time-series line chart illustrates the number of refugee recognitions compared to the number of available durable solutions in Mozambique, with data spanning from 2019 to 2025.

The x-axis represents the years, and the y-axis indicates the count of individuals. There are two series: ‘Refugee Recognitions’ and ‘Available Solutions’.

Key observations from the data are: - Refugee Recognitions: The number of new refugee status recognitions was consistently zero for all years where data is available (2019, 2022, 2023, and 2024). Data for 2021 and 2025 is missing. - Available Solutions: The number of available solutions shows significant fluctuation. After missing data in 2019, the count was 54 in 2021, peaked at 226 in 2022, then dropped to 90 in 2023 and 12 in 2024. The data for 2025 shows 34 solutions.

The chart highlights a stark disparity: while a variable number of durable solutions were available from 2021 onwards, there were no corresponding new grants of refugee status recorded in the available data. The peak in solutions in 2022 contrasts sharply with the static zero-level of recognitions, suggesting a potential disconnect between the systems for granting protection and securing long-term solutions for refugees in the country.

  1. Refugee recognitions refer to the granting of refugee status. (b) Solutions refer to durable solutions such as voluntary repatriation, resettlement, or local integration.