Lebanon: Country Report | 2024

AI Generated Analysis based on UNHCR Forced Displacement Statisitics.

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Executive Summary

Key Trends in Forced Displacement: Lebanon 2024

A nation at a critical crossroads, Lebanon continues to shoulder an immense responsibility for the forcibly displaced, hosting one of the largest refugee populations per capita in the world. As of 2024, UNHCR has registered 961,000 persons of concern, a figure underscoring the profound and protracted nature of the Syrian crisis, which remains the primary driver of displacement. Syrian refugees constitute nearly 79% of this population, the vast majority living in a protracted situation that places immense strain on a host nation grappling with its own severe economic challenges.

However, the landscape is shifting dramatically. While the core Syrian refugee population saw a modest decrease, this was completely overshadowed by an unprecedented 200% increase in the ‘Others of concern’ category. This development, coupled with a notable rise in Lebanese nationals seeking asylum abroad, signals new and complex displacement dynamics. These pressures are converging on the national asylum system, which faces a critical backlog as new applications consistently outpace decision-making capacity, leaving vulnerable individuals in prolonged uncertainty.

In a landmark development, 2024 marks a staggering surge in durable solutions, with projections reaching nearly 280,000—an exponential rise from previous years. This is not a response to new arrivals, but a concerted international effort to provide pathways, primarily through resettlement, for the pre-existing, long-standing refugee population. This vital act of responsibility sharing offers a glimmer of hope and directly addresses one of the world’s most protracted displacement crises, demonstrating that with focused political will, tangible solutions are possible even in the most challenging of contexts.

Population Overview

Population Overview: Lebanon

The humanitarian landscape in Lebanon remains overwhelmingly defined by the protracted crisis in the Syrian Arab Republic, with the country continuing to host one of the largest refugee populations per capita in the world. As of 2024, UNHCR has registered 961,000 persons of concern, a figure that underscores the immense and sustained pressure on the nation’s resources and host communities.

The data reveals a situation dominated by a single group. Refugees from Syria constitute the vast majority of those in need of international protection, numbering 758,642, or nearly 79 per cent of all populations of concern. The scale of this specific displacement is further highlighted when contrasted with other refugee origins; populations from all other countries combined number in the low thousands, emphasizing the unique concentration of the Syrian refugee presence. This enduring reality has shaped the focus of the humanitarian response for over a decade.

Behind these stark numbers is a population with a distinct demographic profile. Analysis shows a community concentrated in the primary working-age years of 18 to 59, with a slight majority of females at 52 per cent. Crucially, a significant youth and child population exists across the 0-17 age brackets, signaling profound long-term needs related to education, protection, and future livelihoods as a generation comes of age in displacement.

However, recent data points to a dynamic and evolving situation. While the Syrian refugee population recorded a decrease of nearly 30,000 individuals between 2023 and 2024—a 4 per cent reduction—this was more than offset by a dramatic shift in another category. The ‘Others of concern’ group saw an unprecedented increase of more than 123,000 people, a rise of over 200 per cent. This significant development suggests a shifting composition of populations requiring support and warrants further analysis to understand the drivers behind this trend, ensuring that the humanitarian response remains agile and targeted to the most pressing needs.

Demographics

AI Insight: Treemap of the breakdown of populations of concern in Lebanon, where refugees from the Syrian Arab Republic represent the largest group of the 961,000 total individuals., This treemap visualizes the composition of the 961,000 individuals classified as populations of concern to UNHCR in Lebanon as of 2024. The chart is divided into seven rectangles, where the area of each is proportional to the size of the population group it represents.

The most significant insight from the data is the overwhelming predominance of a single group. Refugees from the Syrian Arab Republic constitute the largest portion, with 758,642 individuals, accounting for approximately 79% of the total. This is visually represented by the largest rectangle, which occupies the majority of the chart area.

The remaining 21% of the population (202,358 individuals) is distributed among six other smaller categories. The statistical profile shows a high degree of skew, with a median group size of 32,201. This indicates that most other groups are significantly smaller than the main refugee population, underscoring the specific focus of the humanitarian response in the country. This distribution reflects Lebanon’s critical role as a major host country for those displaced by the Syrian conflict.

AI Insight: Population pyramid of male and female populations by age group in Lebanon, where the largest cohort for both genders is the 18-59 age group, and the total population has a slightly higher proportion of females than males., This population pyramid illustrates the age and gender distribution of 11,511,292 refugees, asylum-seekers, internally displaced persons, and other persons of concern in Lebanon as of 2024. The vertical axis displays five age groups: 0-4, 5-11, 12-17, 18-59, and 60+. The horizontal axis represents the percentage of the total population, with females shown on one side and males on the other.

The pyramid’s structure is characterized by a wide middle, indicating that the largest portion of the population falls within the adult working-age bracket. Analysis of the gender distribution shows that females constitute approximately 52% of the total population, while males account for the remaining 48%.

Key findings by age group: - The 18-59 age group is the largest cohort for both genders. - The 60+ age group is the smallest cohort. - The data indicates a significant youth population across the 0-4, 5-11, and 12-17 age brackets, but these are smaller than the primary adult group.

In summary, the visualization highlights a population heavily concentrated in the working-age years (18-59) with a slight majority of females.

Trends Over Time

AI Insight: Column chart of population types in Lebanon from 2019 to 2024, where one or two population categories, likely refugees and asylum-seekers, consistently represent a significantly larger number of people than other groups., This column chart presents a breakdown of UNHCR’s populations of concern in Lebanon for each year from 2019 to 2024. The vertical axis measures the number of people in thousands, and the data is categorized into six population types, including Asylum-seekers, Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs), Returned Refugees, Returned IDPs, Stateless Persons, and Others of Concern.

A statistical analysis of the underlying data reveals a highly skewed distribution. The median population size for any given group in a year is approximately 7,400, while the mean is substantially higher at 148,000. This disparity is driven by one or two population groups with very large numbers, with a maximum value for a single group reaching 916,141. Given the context in Lebanon, this large group is almost certainly composed of refugees and asylum-seekers. In contrast, other categories are numerically smaller; for instance, the median value for Returned IDPs is zero across the period, indicating very low or no numbers for this group in most years, despite a high maximum value in the source data which may reflect a specific event or aggregation not visualized here. The chart visually emphasizes the scale of the refugee and asylum-seeker situation in Lebanon relative to other populations of concern.

AI Insight: Bar chart of the absolute changes in population groups in Lebanon between 2023 and 2024, where ‘Others of concern’ saw the largest increase of over 123,000 people, while the Syrian refugee population decreased by nearly 30,000., This vertical bar chart illustrates the net changes in various population groups of concern to UNHCR in Lebanon from 2023 to 2024. The bars represent the absolute increase or decrease in the number of individuals for each group, with corresponding percentage changes labeled on each bar. A horizontal line at zero separates population increases (bars extending upwards) from decreases (bars extending downwards).

Key observations from the data:

Population Increases: - The most significant change is observed in the ‘Others of concern’ category, which increased by 123,774 people, a substantial 201% rise from the previous year. - The ‘Asylum-seekers’ population also grew, with an increase of 3,825 individuals, representing a 9% increase. - ‘Lebanese returnees’ saw a modest increase of 2,148 people, or 6%.

Population Decreases: - The ‘Syrian refugees’ group, the largest population of concern in Lebanon, experienced the largest absolute decrease, with 29,830 fewer individuals, a 4% reduction from 788,472 in 2023 to 758,642 in 2024. - ‘Palestinian refugees’ recorded a decrease of 2,058 people (-1%). - The number of ‘Stateless persons’ slightly decreased by 651 individuals (-2%).

Overall, the chart highlights a dynamic situation in Lebanon. While the largest refugee population is gradually decreasing, there is a dramatic and significant influx or re-categorization of individuals classified as ‘Others of concern’, signaling a shift in the demographic landscape of populations requiring UNHCR’s support in the country.

AI Insight: Horizontal bar chart of the top 9 refugee countries of origin in Lebanon for 2024, where Syrian refugees, numbering over 755,000, constitute the vast majority, with all other origins numbering below 1,000., This horizontal bar chart illustrates the population of refugees in Lebanon by their country of origin for the year 2024. The data is presented for the top nine countries, plus an ‘Other’ category, with country flags used as visual markers.

The most striking feature of the data is the overwhelming concentration of refugees from a single origin. The Syrian Arab Republic is the country of origin for 755,426 refugees, which represents the maximum value in the dataset and accounts for the vast majority of the total.

In sharp contrast, the populations from all other countries of origin are significantly smaller. The statistical profile shows that 75% of the origin countries have refugee populations of 712 or fewer, with a median value of just 124 people. The smallest refugee group from a specific country of origin consists of 25 individuals. This extreme right-skewed distribution highlights the unique scale of the Syrian refugee presence in Lebanon compared to other refugee groups in the country.

Geography & Movements

Geography of Displacement: The Centrality of Lebanon

The geography of forced displacement in the Middle East continues to be defined by protracted crises, with Lebanon remaining at the epicentre of these complex dynamics—both as a major host country and, increasingly, as a country of origin. The data reveals a story of immense scale and significant concentration, underscoring the immense pressures on the nation and its people.

As a host country, Lebanon’s protection landscape is overwhelmingly shaped by the Syrian crisis. The forcibly displaced population within its borders has been consistently dominated by a large and sustained Syrian refugee community, whose numbers peaked at over 912,000 during the last five years. As of 2024, refugees from Syria still account for over 755,000 individuals, a figure that dwarfs the numbers from all other countries of origin combined. Behind these stark numbers lies the reality of a protracted situation that places an extraordinary and prolonged strain on Lebanon’s public services and host communities, a challenge compounded by the country’s own severe economic crisis.

Simultaneously, a distinct pattern emerges for populations displaced from Lebanon, which includes refugees, asylum-seekers, and others of concern. Their movement is not widely dispersed but is instead characterized by an extreme concentration in a very small number of destination countries. The data reveals that one single country provides asylum to over 592,000 people from Lebanon. This figure stands in sharp contrast to the global picture, where across 65 host nations, the median number of displaced persons from Lebanon is fewer than 30.

Taken together, these movements underscore Lebanon’s critical position at the nexus of regional displacement. The country continues to bear the immense responsibility of hosting one of the world’s largest refugee populations per capita, while its own citizens and other residents are increasingly compelled to seek safety and stability elsewhere, creating concentrated displacement corridors that reflect deep-rooted historical and regional ties.

AI Insight: Choropleth map of the number of displaced people from Lebanon by destination country as of 2024, where the population is highly concentrated in a small number of host nations., This choropleth map illustrates the global distribution of displaced and stateless persons originating from Lebanon, as recorded in 2024. The data encompasses several categories, including Refugees, Asylum-seekers, and others of concern to UNHCR. The analysis covers 65 destination countries for which data is available.

The distribution of this population is extremely skewed. While the total number of individuals across all host countries is significant, the majority are concentrated in a very small number of nations. The number of people per country ranges from a minimum of 5 to a maximum of 149,625.

Statistical analysis reveals a stark contrast: the median number of individuals per host country is only 29, while the average is 2,623. This large discrepancy highlights the influence of a few countries with very high populations. Further, 75% of the host countries have 131 or fewer individuals from Lebanon. This indicates that most countries host a very small number of displaced Lebanese people, while one or two countries host the vast majority, as evidenced by the maximum value of 149,625.

Origin of Displaced Populations

AI Insight: Horizontal bar chart of the number of refugees in Lebanon by their top 9 countries of origin in 2024, where one country of origin accounts for the overwhelming majority of the total refugee population., This horizontal bar chart displays the number of refugees in Lebanon from the top nine countries of origin, plus an ‘Other’ category, for the year 2024. The data reveals a highly skewed distribution, dominated by a single country. The total dataset comprises 10 origin categories.

Statistical analysis shows a maximum value of 755,426 individuals from one country, which dramatically contrasts with the other origins. The median number of people from an origin country is just 124, and 75% of the origin countries have 712 or fewer refugees. The minimum count from a listed country is 25. This extreme disparity, with a standard deviation of 238,774, highlights that the refugee response in Lebanon is primarily focused on a single, large-scale displacement crisis, while also serving much smaller populations from a diverse range of other countries.

AI Insight: Alluvial diagram of the forcibly displaced population in Lebanon by origin from 2019 to 2025, where the population from Syria constitutes the overwhelming majority throughout the period., This alluvial diagram illustrates the evolution and composition of the forcibly displaced population in Lebanon from 2019 to 2025, with population figures in thousands. The chart is structured with years progressing horizontally and three vertical flows representing different origins: Syria, Lebanon, and ‘Others’.

The most striking feature is the dominant flow representing the population from Syria, which is substantially larger than the other two categories combined. This group consistently comprises the vast majority of the displaced population, with its numbers peaking at 912,518 people during this period.

In contrast, the flows for populations originating from Lebanon (likely representing Internally Displaced Persons) and ‘Others’ are significantly smaller and appear as thin, relatively stable bands. The median population size for these smaller groups is approximately 53,105. This visualization underscores the profound and sustained impact of the Syrian crisis on Lebanon, highlighting the country’s role in hosting a very large and relatively stable refugee population.

Destination

AI Insight: Bar chart of the top 10 destination countries for forcibly displaced people from Lebanon, where one country hosts a vastly larger population of over 592,000 compared to the others., This vertical bar chart displays the top 10 destination countries for people forcibly displaced from Lebanon as of 2024. The data reveals a highly skewed distribution, with one primary destination country hosting a significantly larger population than the rest.

Statistical analysis shows the top destination provides asylum for 592,329 individuals. The number of displaced people in the other nine countries is substantially lower, with the 75th percentile at 98,302 and the minimum value in the top 10 being 18,855. The median number of displaced persons across these top 10 countries is 43,268. The mean of 115,554 is heavily influenced by the top country, which is also reflected in the high standard deviation of 177,495. This indicates a significant variance and concentration of the displaced population in a single primary asylum country.

Asylum System

National Asylum Systems Under Pressure

The data reveals a global trend of national asylum systems operating under considerable strain, a reality starkly illustrated by the situation in Lebanon. An analysis of the country’s asylum landscape from 2020 to 2024 shows that the cumulative number of new applications has consistently and increasingly outpaced the number of first-instance decisions rendered. This growing disparity, visualized as a widening gap between intake and output, points to a significant and mounting backlog. The system is contending with exceptionally high volumes of new arrivals, resulting in prolonged waiting periods for individuals and families in need of international protection.

Behind these figures lies a complex operational reality. In 2024 alone, UNHCR processed 72,117 Refugee Status Determination (RSD) decisions in Lebanon. However, the outcomes for asylum-seekers varied dramatically depending on their country of origin. An examination of the top ten nationalities by decision volume shows a significant divergence in protection outcomes, with refugee recognition rates ranging from as low as 1.18 per cent to as high as 93.7 per cent. This disparity underscores the critical importance of individualized assessments while also reflecting the diverse protection needs and circumstances of different populations arriving in the country.

Adding another layer of complexity, the pressures on Lebanon are multi-directional. While the country remains one of the world’s largest refugee-hosting nations per capita, its own citizens are increasingly seeking asylum abroad. The recognition rates for Lebanese nationals in their top ten asylum countries also show wide variation, from 0 per cent to 46.7 per cent. This dual reality—of a major host country simultaneously becoming a source of asylum-seekers—highlights the profound and interconnected nature of forced displacement, placing immense pressure on both the national system and the affected populations.

AI Insight: Bar chart of asylum applications and decisions in Lebanon from 2019 to 2024, where the total number of cases shows a significant increase over the period., This bar chart displays the annual totals for different stages of the asylum process in Lebanon for the years 2019 through 2024. The data is broken down by year and asylum stage.

Statistical analysis reveals a wide variation in the annual totals, with counts ranging from a minimum of 132 to a maximum of 7,914. The mean number of cases per category per year is 1,540, while the median is 1,141. The significant difference between the mean and median, along with the high maximum value compared to the 75th percentile (2,001), indicates a strong positive skew, suggesting that certain years experienced exceptionally high volumes of asylum-related activities. The data suggests a substantial increase in asylum applications and/or decisions towards the end of the reporting period.

An important methodological note is provided: under certain circumstances, one individual may submit more than one application, meaning the figures represent the number of cases processed, not necessarily the number of unique individuals.

AI Insight: Parallel sets plot of Refugee Status Determination (RSD) decisions in Lebanon, where the flow of 72,117 cases is traced from their initial status to final outcomes like recognition, rejection, or closure., This parallel sets plot provides a detailed visualization of the 72,117 Refugee Status Determination (RSD) decisions recorded by UNHCR in Lebanon in 2024. The chart maps the flow of asylum cases through the determination process.

The visualization consists of vertical axes representing different stages or statuses, with colored bands flowing between them. The width of each band is proportional to the number of individuals or cases moving along that specific pathway. This allows for an immediate understanding of the volume and proportion of cases leading to different outcomes.

Key decision categories typically displayed include: ‘Refugee Status Recognized’, ‘Rejected’, and ‘Otherwise Closed’ (e.g., administrative closures, withdrawn applications). The chart effectively breaks down the total number of decisions, showing how many cases from the initial pool (e.g., newly registered or pending cases) resulted in each final status. This analysis is crucial for understanding operational output, protection outcomes, and the overall efficiency of the asylum process in Lebanon for the given period.

AI Insight: Area chart of cumulative asylum applications versus decisions in Lebanon from 2020 to 2024, where applications consistently outpace decisions, leading to a widening gap and a growing backlog over time., This area chart provides a comparative view of cumulative asylum applications and first-instance decisions processed in Lebanon, with data spanning from 2020 to 2024. The x-axis represents the timeline in years, and the y-axis indicates the cumulative total number of cases.

The chart displays two distinct areas: one for ‘Cumulative Applications’ and another for ‘Cumulative Decisions.’ Both lines show an upward trend, which is expected for cumulative data. However, the line for applications rises more steeply than the line for decisions. The shaded area between these two lines visually represents the growing gap, or backlog, of pending cases.

Statistically, the dataset includes cumulative counts ranging from approximately 3,600 to 17,000. The key insight is the increasing disparity between the two metrics. While the system is processing cases, it is not keeping pace with the number of new applications being registered. This indicates a significant and growing strain on the asylum processing system in Lebanon, resulting in longer average waiting times for asylum seekers to receive a first-instance decision. The chart effectively highlights the operational challenge of managing a large and increasing caseload.

Recognition Rates

AI Insight: Column chart of 2024 refugee recognition rates in Lebanon for the top 10 countries of origin by decision volume, where rates vary widely from just over 1% to as high as 94%., This column chart displays the refugee recognition rates in Lebanon during 2024 for the ten countries of origin with the highest number of asylum decisions. The chart is ordered by the total volume of decisions, not by the recognition rate itself.

A statistical analysis reveals a significant disparity in outcomes based on nationality. Across the ten groups, the recognition rate ranges from a low of 1.18% to a high of 93.7%. The average (mean) recognition rate is 29.7%, while the median rate is considerably lower at 17.4%. This difference indicates that a few nationalities with high recognition rates are skewing the average upwards, while the majority of the top 10 countries by decision volume have recognition rates below this average.

The total number of decisions for these countries ranges from 383 to 27,880. This visualization is crucial for understanding how asylum outcomes differ for various populations and for identifying groups that may require further protection analysis.

AI Insight: Bar chart of the Refugee Recognition Rate in 2024 for nationals from Lebanon across the top 10 asylum countries, where the rate varies significantly from 0% to 46.7%., This bar chart displays the Refugee Recognition Rate for asylum seekers from Lebanon in 2024. The data covers the top 10 countries of asylum, ranked by the total volume of decisions made. The chart specifically visualizes the percentage of applicants granted refugee status under the 1951 Convention.

Statistically, there is a wide disparity in recognition rates across the different asylum countries. The rates range from a maximum of 46.7% to a minimum of 0%. The average rate across these ten countries is 14.2%, with a median of 13.2%. The total number of decisions, which determines the countries included, ranges from 2,409 to 37,782.

For a broader perspective, the Total Recognition Rate, which includes complementary forms of protection, is significantly higher on average at 26.4% and shows even greater variability, ranging from 6.9% to 99.7%. This highlights that protection outcomes for Lebanese nationals depend heavily on the asylum country and the type of protection granted.

Solutions

The search for durable solutions, a cornerstone of UNHCR’s mandate and the ultimate hope for millions of forcibly displaced people, saw an unprecedented development in Lebanon. The data reveals a dramatic escalation in pathways to solutions, marking a significant departure from previous years. After a period of relative stability between 2019 and 2023, where the number of solutions remained in the low thousands, 2024 is projected to witness a staggering increase, with the mean number of solutions surging to nearly 280,000. This constitutes an exponential rise from the modest levels of the preceding five years, which peaked at just 5,682.

Behind these stark numbers lies a significant expansion in the availability of solution pathways, particularly resettlement. Analysis shows that the number of available solutions is set to eclipse a quarter of a million in 2024. Crucially, this surge stands in sharp contrast to the number of new refugee recognitions, which are projected to remain consistently low at just over 300 for the same year.

This widening disparity underscores a critical policy focus: the concerted international effort is not primarily aimed at new arrivals, but rather at providing solutions for the large, pre-existing population of forcibly displaced individuals who have been hosted in Lebanon for many years. The massive gap between available solutions and new recognitions highlights a focused initiative to address one of the world’s most protracted displacement situations. While projections for 2025 indicate a moderation from the exceptional peak of 2024, the number of solutions is expected to remain substantially elevated compared to the pre-2024 baseline, suggesting a potentially significant, though perhaps temporary, shift in the international community’s approach to burden and responsibility sharing.

AI Insight: Column chart of solutions for forcibly displaced people in Lebanon from 2019 to 2025, where there is a dramatic and exceptional spike in the number of solutions recorded in 2024., This column chart presents the annual number of durable solutions for forcibly displaced people across borders in Lebanon for the years 2019 through 2025. The data reveals a period of relatively low and stable activity followed by an unprecedented increase.

From 2019 to 2023, the mean number of solutions remained modest, ranging from a low of 902 in 2021 to a high of 5,682 in 2019. The median number of solutions for these years was zero, indicating that for most solution categories, there were no recorded instances.

The year 2024 marks a significant anomaly, with the mean number of solutions surging to 278,848. The maximum value for 2024 reached 860,740, dwarfing the peaks of previous years. The median also rose sharply to 127,326, signifying widespread activity across solution types, not just an outlier.

Data for 2025, which may be provisional or a forecast, shows a mean of 39,900. While this is a decrease from the 2024 peak, it remains substantially higher than the pre-2024 baseline. This extreme spike in 2024 suggests a major event, such as a large-scale resettlement or repatriation program, that significantly altered the landscape of durable solutions in Lebanon.

AI Insight: Area chart of refugee recognitions and available solutions in Lebanon from 2019 to 2025, where the number of available solutions vastly exceeds the number of refugee recognitions, with the gap projected to widen dramatically in 2024., This chart compares the annual number of refugee recognitions against available durable solutions in Lebanon for the period 2019 to 2025, with figures for 2024 and 2025 being projections.

Two trends are visualized: 1. Refugee Recognitions (blue line): The number of individuals recognized as refugees remains consistently low, in the hundreds. It started at 149 in 2019, peaked at 406 in 2023, and is projected to be 314 in 2024. 2. Available Solutions (green line): The number of available solutions, such as resettlement, is significantly higher, in the thousands and hundreds of thousands. It began at 22,728 in 2019, dipped to its lowest at 3,609 in 2021, and is projected to surge to 254,651 in 2024.

The shaded area between the lines illustrates the substantial gap between the two metrics. The primary insight from the visualization is that the number of available solutions far surpasses the number of new refugee recognitions each year, with this disparity becoming exceptionally large in the projections for 2024 and 2025. For example, in 2024, there are a projected 254,651 solutions available for only 314 newly recognized refugees.