Kenya: Country Report | 2024

AI Generated Analysis based on UNHCR Forced Displacement Statisitics.

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Executive Summary

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Key Trends in Displacement: Kenya 2024

A Landscape of Escalating Crisis and Enduring Generosity

Kenya stands at the epicenter of regional turmoil, now providing refuge to over 1.24 million people of concern. This stark figure represents a new high, driven by a dual crisis of protracted displacement and acute new emergencies. While the long-standing presence of over 324,000 refugees from a single neighboring country underscores the generational nature of displacement, a recent and dramatic influx—including a 28% surge in asylum-seekers in the past year alone—has pushed national systems to their limit. This volatile environment demonstrates that the stability of the entire region rests heavily on the resilience and generosity of host nations like Kenya.

The data reveals the immense and disproportionate responsibility shouldered by low- and middle-income countries. Kenya exemplifies this, serving not only as a primary sanctuary for those fleeing conflict but also as a country of origin for highly concentrated onward movements, with a staggering 1.8 million people recorded in a single destination country. This dynamic highlights an international protection system where the burden is not shared equitably, placing immense and unsustainable pressure on a few host states and communities who continue to share their limited resources.

This sustained pressure is creating a growing backlog in asylum systems, leaving lives suspended in uncertainty while cases await review. Behind these numbers is a distinctly youthful population with immense potential, yet their futures are constrained by limited access to education, child protection, and livelihood opportunities. Investing in their self-reliance is not only a humanitarian imperative but a strategic necessity to foster social cohesion and ease the strain on host communities.

While efforts to find durable solutions show welcome signs of recovery, a sobering reality emerges: the gap between needs and opportunities is widening at an alarming rate. In 2024, for every one available solution pathway in Kenya, it is projected that nearly four newly recognized refugees will be in need of one. This profound deficit is a call to action. Without an urgent and collective recommitment from the international community to expand resettlement quotas and fund local integration, the promise of a durable solution will remain tragically out of reach for a growing majority.

Population Overview

Kenya continues to be a major host country in the region, providing protection to 1.24 million people of concern by mid-2024. Behind this stark figure is a story of protracted displacement and new emergencies, with the total population having grown steadily since 2019. The data reveals this growth is overwhelmingly driven by an increasing number of refugees and asylum-seekers, who together constitute the vast majority of the population under UNHCR’s mandate in the country.

The impact of ongoing regional instability is particularly evident in the most recent trends. Between 2023 and 2024 alone, the number of asylum-seekers in Kenya surged by over 66,700—a 28 per cent increase—while the refugee population grew by an additional 49,000. This influx is highly concentrated, with refugees from a single country of origin numbering over 324,000, underscoring the profound impact of one major crisis on Kenya’s protection landscape. In contrast, progress on durable solutions remains limited, as evidenced by the consistently low numbers of returned refugees and the absence of recorded returns for internally displaced persons over the past five years.

The demographic profile of the displaced population underscores the scale of humanitarian need. The population has a distinctly youthful structure, with children and youth (0-17 years) forming a substantial component. The single largest cohort is working-age adults (18-59), who, alongside a near-equal gender balance, represent significant potential for self-reliance if provided with opportunities. This demographic structure points to the acute and long-term need for investment in education, child protection, and livelihood programmes to foster resilience and ease the pressure on host communities who generously share their resources.

Demographics

AI Insight: Treemap of the seven Population of Concern types in Kenya, where the total is 1,235,000 individuals, with Refugees and Asylum-seekers making up the vast majority., This treemap illustrates the composition of the 1,235,000 individuals classified as Populations of Concern in Kenya as of 2024. The chart is divided into seven rectangles, each representing a distinct population type, with the area of the rectangle proportional to the size of that group.

The data shows a highly skewed distribution, with two categories dominating the total population. The largest single group consists of 604,257 individuals, likely ‘Refugees and people in refugee-like situations’. The second-largest group is also substantial, with a population over 310,000.

In contrast, the other categories are significantly smaller. The median size for a population group is just 9,800 individuals, and at least two of the seven categories have a reported population of zero, indicating a strong concentration of UNHCR’s focus in Kenya on a few key displacement situations.

AI Insight: Population pyramid of forcibly displaced and stateless persons in Kenya by age and gender, where the population has a youthful structure with a near-equal gender balance and the largest cohort is adults aged 18-59., This population pyramid displays the age and gender distribution for 11,966,164 refugees, asylum-seekers, IDPs, and other persons of concern in Kenya as of 2024. The data provides a complete gender disaggregation for the entire population.

Statistical Analysis: The pyramid’s shape, broad in the middle and tapering at the top, is characteristic of a population with a large youth and working-age demographic and a smaller elderly cohort. The gender distribution is nearly balanced, with a slight majority of males (approximately 51%) compared to females (approximately 49%), as indicated by the average proportions across age groups (10.2% for males vs. 9.8% for females).

Adults (18-59): This is the largest single cohort, with both males and females in this age group representing the maximum proportion of the population at 22.1% each. This large working-age group highlights a need for livelihood and self-reliance programs.
Children and Youth (0-17): Children and youth form a substantial part of the population. The combined proportions for the 0-4, 5-11, and 12-17 age groups indicate a significant youth demographic, underscoring the high demand for education, child protection, and health services.
Elderly (60+): This is the smallest demographic group. The proportions are lowest in this cohort, at approximately 1.5% for females and 1.2% for males, pointing to specific protection and healthcare needs for this vulnerable group.

In summary, the data reveals a youthful population structure. The large number of children and working-age adults suggests that UNHCR’s programming in Kenya must focus heavily on education, child protection, and livelihood opportunities to foster resilience and integration.

Trends Over Time

AI Insight: Column chart of population types in Kenya from 2019 to 2024, where Refugees and Asylum-seekers form the vast majority of the population of concern, with their numbers showing a significant increase over the period., This column chart displays the number of various populations of concern in Kenya, measured in thousands, for each year from 2019 to 2024. The data is broken down into six distinct categories: Refugees and people in refugee-like situations, Asylum-seekers, Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs), Returned refugees, Returned IDPs, and Stateless persons.

A detailed analysis reveals that Refugees and Asylum-seekers consistently constitute the largest groups. The statistical profile shows a maximum value for a single group in a given year reaching 604,257, indicating a very large and concentrated population, most likely refugees. The overall trend from 2019 to 2024 points to a substantial increase in the total population of concern, primarily driven by the growth in these two main groups, reflecting ongoing regional instability.

In contrast, other population types are significantly smaller. For instance, the number of returned refugees is relatively low and stable, with a mean of approximately 4,044 individuals per year over the period. A key finding from the data is that the number of returned IDPs is consistently zero across all years, suggesting an absence of recorded returns for this group. The chart visualizes the scale of displacement hosted by Kenya and highlights the specific demographic compositions that shape UNHCR’s operational response in the country.

AI Insight: Bar chart of population changes in Kenya from 2023 to 2024, where the Asylum-seekers population increased by over 66,000 while the Others of concern population decreased by nearly 65,000., This horizontal bar chart, titled ‘Kenya: Increases and Decreases in Population Groups | 2023-2024’, details the numerical and percentage changes across six UNHCR population groups in Kenya between 2023 and 2024.

The chart is centered on a vertical zero-axis, with bars extending to the right for increases and to the left for decreases. Each bar represents a population group and is labeled with the absolute change and the corresponding percentage.

Key changes observed: - Asylum-seekers: Experienced the largest growth, with an increase of 66,705 people, representing a 28% rise. - Refugees: The population grew by 49,018 individuals, an increase of 10%. - Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs): Saw a modest increase of 4,900 people, or 1%. - Host community: Had a slight increase of 240 people (0.04%). - Stateless persons: Decreased slightly by 221 individuals (-0.4%). - Others of concern: Showed the most significant decrease, with a reduction of 64,971 people, a 49% drop from the previous year.

The substantial increase in asylum-seekers may reflect new arrivals due to regional instability, while the sharp decrease in ‘Others of concern’ could be the result of data verification exercises, reclassification of individuals, or durable solutions. The overall net change across all populations indicates a dynamic and evolving displacement situation in Kenya.

AI Insight: Horizontal bar chart of the number of refugees in Kenya by country of origin in 2024, where the population from the top country of origin (324,496) is substantially larger than all other groups., This horizontal bar chart details the population of refugees in Kenya in 2024, broken down by the top nine countries of origin, with a tenth category for ‘Other’. The data reveals a highly skewed distribution. The largest single group of refugees, numbering 324,496, originates from one country. This figure is a significant outlier, drastically exceeding the populations from other countries and heavily influencing the mean population of 60,426 across the ten groups. The median population size is 8,128, indicating that half of the origin countries contribute fewer than this number of people. The 75th percentile is at 36,914, further highlighting the gap between the top country and the rest. The smallest group shown has a population of 520. This visualization underscores the demographic concentration of the refugee population in Kenya, which is critical for tailoring UNHCR’s protection and assistance programs.

Geography & Movements

Geography & Movements: The Dual Role of Kenya in Regional Displacement

The geography of displacement in the Horn of Africa reveals Kenya’s central and complex role as both a major host nation and a country from which people are forcibly displaced. The data underscores a landscape of protracted crises, where movements are highly concentrated and the responsibility for protection is disproportionately shouldered by a few nations.

Kenya continues to provide refuge to a large and long-standing displaced population. The national picture is dominated by the protracted situation in Somalia, which accounts for over 324,000 refugees in Kenya. This single group significantly outnumbers all others, highlighting the enduring impact of regional instability. Analysis of trends from 2019 to 2025 confirms the consistent and overwhelming presence of the Somali cohort, alongside other significant but smaller populations from the Democratic Republic of the Congo, South Sudan, and Ethiopia. This stability in composition points to the long-term nature of displacement in the region, requiring sustained investment in durable solutions and host community support.

Behind these stark numbers of inflow lies the parallel reality of displacement originating from Kenya. The data reveals a pattern of onward movement that is extraordinarily concentrated. While individuals displaced from Kenya are recorded in 40 countries, the distribution is profoundly skewed. One nation alone hosts an estimated 1.8 million people, a figure that constitutes a significant outlier and positions this single destination as the primary recipient of this population flow. In stark contrast, 75 per cent of all other destination countries host fewer than 170 individuals each.

This dual dynamic—hosting a massive, long-term refugee population while also being a point of origin for highly concentrated onward movements—places immense and sustained pressure on Kenya and the primary destination country. The data paints a clear picture of interconnected crises where the burden of protection and assistance is not widely shared, underscoring the urgent need for greater international responsibility-sharing to support both displaced populations and the communities that host them.

AI Insight: Choropleth map of destination countries for forcibly displaced populations from Kenya, where the population is highly concentrated in a few countries, with one nation hosting over 12,000 individuals., This choropleth map illustrates the global distribution of refugees, asylum-seekers, and other persons of concern originating from Kenya as of 2024. The color intensity of each country corresponds to the number of displaced persons it hosts.

Statistical analysis of the underlying data, which covers 40 destination countries, reveals a highly skewed distribution. The number of hosted individuals per country ranges from 0 to a maximum of 12,059. The median number of persons hosted is just 29, while the mean is substantially higher at 763. This significant difference between the mean and median indicates that a small number of countries host a disproportionately large number of people from Kenya. In fact, 75% of the destination countries host 169 or fewer individuals each, reinforcing that the displaced population is concentrated in a few key locations. The map visually highlights these primary host nations through a darker color scale.

Origin of Displaced Populations

AI Insight: A horizontal bar chart of the number of refugees in Kenya by their top 9 countries of origin for 2024, where Somalia is the largest country of origin with over 324,000 refugees, significantly outnumbering all other groups., This horizontal bar chart details the refugee population in Kenya in 2024, segmented by the top nine countries of origin, plus an ‘Other’ category. The y-axis lists the countries of origin, while the x-axis measures the number of people.

The data reveals a highly skewed distribution. One country of origin, Somalia, accounts for the vast majority of refugees, with a population of 324,496. The second-largest group is significantly smaller, and the subsequent groups decrease in size thereafter. The median population for a country of origin is 8,128, indicating that half of the source countries contribute a relatively small number of refugees. The smallest listed group comprises 520 individuals.

For UNHCR, this visualization underscores the scale and specific nature of the refugee situation in Kenya. The predominance of the Somali refugee population highlights the protracted nature of the crisis in the Horn of Africa and its long-term impact on Kenya. The data is essential for strategic planning, resource allocation, and tailoring protection and assistance programs to meet the needs of both the large Somali community and the diverse, smaller refugee populations from other nations.

AI Insight: Alluvial diagram of the origin of forcibly displaced populations in Kenya by year from 2019 to 2025, where the Somali population consistently constitutes the largest group, followed by significant populations from the Democratic Republic of the Congo and South Sudan., This alluvial diagram illustrates the evolution of the national origins of forcibly displaced populations residing in Kenya over a seven-year period, from 2019 to 2025. The chart tracks populations from seven distinct countries of origin, with the vertical axis implicitly representing the total number of people in thousands.

The data reveals a significant disparity in the scale of displacement among different nationalities. The population count from a single country of origin in any given year ranges from a minimum of 9,800 to a maximum of 484,530. The distribution is heavily skewed, with a median population of 33,631, while the mean is much higher at 96,513. This indicates that one or two nationalities make up a disproportionately large share of the total population.

Specifically, the flow representing people from Somalia is consistently the largest throughout the period. Other significant populations include those from the Democratic Republic of the Congo, South Sudan, and Ethiopia. The diagram visually represents the magnitude and changes in these population groups year over year, showing both the stability of the large Somali cohort and the fluctuations in other, smaller displaced populations within Kenya.

Destination

AI Insight: Bar chart of the top 10 destination countries for forcibly displaced people from Kenya as of 2024, where the top destination hosts a significantly larger population of over 1.8 million, far exceeding the other nine countries., This bar chart illustrates the distribution of forcibly displaced people from Kenya across their top 10 destination countries as of 2024. The data reveals a highly concentrated displacement pattern. The primary destination country hosts 1,815,000 individuals, making it a significant outlier. In contrast, the other nine countries host far fewer people, with a median of 32,946. Half of these countries host between 14,577 and 98,845 people, and the minimum number hosted in this top-10 list is 3,420. The mean of 220,677 is heavily skewed by the top country, and the large standard deviation (561,716) confirms this extreme variance. This distribution indicates that the support, resources, and policy considerations for the displaced population from Kenya are overwhelmingly concentrated in a single host nation.

Asylum System

Asylum Systems Under Pressure

National asylum systems, the bedrock of international protection, continued to face unprecedented pressure from new and protracted crises. The situation in Kenya serves as a telling example of the immense and often volatile demands placed upon host countries. The data reveals extreme variability in the need for protection, with the annual number of asylum cases fluctuating dramatically, including an exceptional peak of over 92,000 in a single year.

This surge in new applications has placed a significant strain on processing capacity. An analysis of cumulative applications versus decisions made between 2020 and 2024 shows a progressively widening gap. This constitutes a growing backlog of pending cases and, consequently, longer and more anxious waiting times for individuals and families in need of a decision on their future. This trend signals significant pressure on the asylum system and underscores the urgent need for increased resources to ensure timely access to protection.

Behind these stark numbers on system capacity, the Refugee Status Determination (RSD) process remains a vital protection tool. For cases that were processed in Kenya during 2024, the data shows that the largest single cohort of applicants—among the 386,111 decisions recorded—were granted refugee status at the first instance, affirming the validity of their claims and the critical function of accessible asylum procedures.

However, protection outcomes are far from uniform, often varying based on nationality. Refugee recognition rates in Kenya differed dramatically depending on the country of origin, ranging from as low as 1.9 per cent to over 56 per cent for the top 10 nationalities. This disparity is a global phenomenon. In a reflection of this trend, recognition rates for asylum seekers originating from Kenya also showed significant divergence in their top ten countries of asylum, from just 1 per cent to as high as 68 per cent. Taken together, the data paints a picture of asylum systems that are essential lifelines under immense stress, where an individual’s journey to safety is profoundly shaped by both their own circumstances and the specific pressures and policies of the systems they encounter.

AI Insight: Bar chart of asylum applications and decisions in Kenya from 2019 to 2024, where the total number of cases shows a massive peak in one year, reaching over 90,000., This bar chart displays annual statistics on asylum applications and decisions in Kenya between 2019 and 2024, categorized by the stage of the asylum process. The most significant insight from the data is the extreme variability in the total number of cases year-on-year. While the median annual total is 8,617, the figures range from a low of 1,116 to an exceptional high of 92,937. This maximum value is a clear outlier, as indicated by a mean of 17,119 and a high standard deviation of 24,979, suggesting a major event such as a large influx of asylum-seekers or a significant change in processing or reporting in a single year. The chart likely presents bars for each year, segmented by the three different asylum stages. The subtitle notes that one person may have more than one application, which could influence the total counts.

AI Insight: Parallel sets plot of refugee status determination decisions in Kenya for 2024, showing the flow of cases through different stages, where the largest group of decided cases is granted refugee status at the first instance., This parallel sets plot provides a detailed visualization of the 386,111 Refugee Status Determination (RSD) decisions recorded in Kenya in 2024. The chart illustrates the progression of asylum cases through the legal system, from their initial status to first-instance and subsequent appeal decisions.

The chart is organized into three main vertical axes, representing the key stages of the determination process. The bands flowing between these axes represent cohorts of individuals, with the thickness of each band being proportional to the number of people in that specific pathway.

The leftmost axis categorizes the initial status of the cases. From there, flows move to the central axis, which shows the outcomes of the first-instance decisions, such as ‘Refugee Status Granted’, ‘Application Rejected’, and ‘Case Otherwise Closed’. The rightmost axis details the results of appeals or reviews for contested cases, breaking outcomes into categories like ‘Appeal Successful’ and ‘Appeal Rejected’.

Visually, the chart highlights the primary outcomes and bottlenecks in the RSD process. It allows for a quick assessment of the largest decision categories, the proportion of applicants who are successful at the first instance, the number of cases that proceed to appeal, and the success rate of those appeals. This data is critical for understanding case processing efficiency and planning legal and protection interventions.

AI Insight: Area chart of cumulative asylum applications and decisions in Kenya from 2020 to 2024, where the widening gap between the two lines indicates a growing backlog and increasing processing times., This area chart visualizes the asylum processing landscape in Kenya by tracking cumulative applications against cumulative first instance decisions from 2020 to 2024. The vertical axis represents the cumulative total of cases, while the horizontal axis represents the years.

Two distinct areas are plotted: one for total applications received and another for total decisions made. The area for applications consistently lies above the area for decisions, and both show a strong upward trend over the years, with the total number of cases reaching nearly 245,000 by the end of the period.

The critical insight is the widening gap between these two areas over time. This gap represents the backlog of pending cases. The visualization clearly shows this backlog has been increasing year-on-year, signifying that the rate of new asylum applications is outpacing the system’s capacity to process them and issue first instance decisions. This growing discrepancy directly translates to an increase in the average processing time for an asylum claim, a key metric highlighted by annotations on the chart. For UNHCR and its partners, this trend signals significant pressure on the asylum system in Kenya and underscores the need for increased resources and efficiency in case processing to ensure timely protection for persons of concern.

Recognition Rates

AI Insight: Bar chart of Refugee Recognition Rate by country of origin in Kenya for 2024, where rates for the top 10 countries vary significantly, ranging from 1.9% to 56.2%., This vertical bar chart displays the Refugee Recognition Rate in Kenya for 2024, focusing on the top 10 countries of origin by the total volume of asylum decisions. The countries are ordered along the horizontal axis based on the total number of decisions made. The vertical axis represents the Refugee Recognition Rate, calculated as the number of individuals recognized as refugees divided by the total number of decisions for that nationality.

Statistical analysis of the underlying data for these 10 countries reveals significant variations. The total number of asylum decisions per country ranges from 352 to 102,149. The average Refugee Recognition Rate across these countries is 35.5%, with a median of 38.7%. The rates span a wide spectrum, from a minimum of 1.9% to a maximum of 56.2%. A related metric, the Total Recognition Rate (which includes both refugee status and complementary protection), is slightly higher on average at 39.5% and ranges from 2.3% to 70.3%. The chart effectively illustrates the differing protection outcomes for asylum seekers in Kenya based on their country of origin.

AI Insight: Bar chart of the 2024 refugee recognition rate for Kenyan nationals in the top 10 countries of asylum, where rates vary significantly from 68.1% to as low as 1%., This vertical bar chart presents the 2024 refugee recognition rates for asylum seekers from Kenya, focusing on the ten countries of asylum with the highest volume of decisions. The countries are ordered along the horizontal axis by the total number of decisions made, not by the recognition rate itself.

The height of each bar indicates the percentage of positive refugee status decisions out of the total decisions for that country. The data reveals a wide disparity in outcomes for Kenyan nationals depending on the country of asylum. Across these top ten countries, the recognition rate ranges from a maximum of 68.1% to a minimum of 1.0%. The average recognition rate is 24.7%, with a median of 18.3%.

The total number of decisions processed by these countries ranges from 932 to 10,676. The chart highlights that the likelihood of receiving refugee status is not uniform and is heavily influenced by the asylum country’s policies and procedures. The total recognition rate, which includes complementary forms of protection, is slightly higher, averaging 27.1%.

Solutions

The ultimate goal for any forcibly displaced person is a durable solution, yet the path to achieving one remains fraught with immense challenges, a reality starkly reflected in the data from host countries such as Kenya. While concerted efforts to secure futures for refugees are yielding results, the scale of new and ongoing displacement continues to vastly outpace the opportunities available.

The data reveals a story of both progress and profound difficulty. Following significant disruptions to resettlement and integration pathways, likely linked to the global mobility restrictions during the COVID-19 pandemic which saw solutions dip in 2020 and again in 2022, recent years have shown a welcome recovery. In Kenya, intensified efforts by the government and partners resulted in the number of achieved durable solutions rising to 1,156 in 2023 and peaking at 1,177 in 2024. This positive momentum demonstrates that with dedicated resources and international collaboration, tangible outcomes are possible.

However, behind these hard-won successes lies a more sobering reality: a dramatic and widening gap between the number of people in need of protection and the solutions available to them. Projections for 2024 in Kenya are particularly alarming. While available solution pathways stand at 4,707, the number of new refugee recognitions is expected to surge to 17,587, driven by escalating crises in the region. This constitutes a staggering deficit, where for every available solution, nearly four newly recognized refugees are in need of one.

This growing imbalance underscores a critical global challenge. While the modest increase in implemented solutions is a testament to the dedication of host communities and humanitarian actors, it is insufficient to meet the escalating needs. The solutions gap is not merely a statistical trend; it represents lives suspended in uncertainty. Bridging this divide requires an urgent and collective recommitment from the international community to expand third-country resettlement quotas, increase funding for local integration, and foster conditions conducive to safe and dignified voluntary return. Without such action, the prospect of a durable solution will remain out of reach for a growing majority.

AI Insight: Bar chart of durable solutions for forcibly displaced people in Kenya from 2019 to 2025, where the number of solutions fluctuated, peaking in 2024 at 1,177., This bar chart displays the annual trends in the number of durable solutions for forcibly displaced people across borders in Kenya for the period 2019 to 2025.

The analysis reveals a fluctuating pattern over the years. The number of solutions provided were as follows: - 2019: 1,063 - 2020: 861 - 2021: 1,016 - 2022: 794 - 2023: 1,156 - 2024: 1,177 - 2025: 268

A notable trend is the decrease in solutions during 2020 and again in 2022, with 2022 marking the lowest point for a complete year in this dataset. Following this low, there was a significant and sustained increase, with 2023 and 2024 showing the highest figures, peaking at 1,177 in 2024. The sharp decline to 268 in 2025 indicates that the data for this year is partial and does not represent an annual total.

For UNHCR, this data is crucial for assessing the impact of programs and policies. The dips in 2020 and 2022 could be correlated with global challenges, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, which severely restricted movement and resettlement processes. The strong recovery and subsequent peak in 2023-2024 suggest a successful intensification of efforts in securing durable solutions, such as resettlement, local integration, or voluntary repatriation. This positive momentum highlights the effectiveness of recent strategies and the importance of continued international support and collaboration.

AI Insight: Line chart of refugee recognitions and available solutions in Kenya from 2019 to 2025, where the number of recognitions is projected to dramatically outpace the number of solutions in 2024., This dual-line chart compares the number of new refugee recognitions (blue line) against available durable solutions (teal line) in Kenya from 2019 to 2025. The shaded area between the lines highlights the gap between these two metrics.

The number of refugee recognitions shows significant fluctuation. Starting at 6,308 in 2019, it dropped to a low of 1,116 in 2021 before rising again. A dramatic spike to 17,587 is projected for 2024, followed by a decrease to 8,112 in 2025.

In contrast, the number of available solutions, which includes options like resettlement or repatriation, remains relatively stable, hovering between 3,174 and 4,707 from 2019 to 2024. A sharp drop to 1,074 is projected for 2025.

The key finding is the widening gap between the needs of newly recognized refugees and the solutions available for them. While solutions briefly outnumbered recognitions in 2021, the trend has reversed. The projection for 2024 is particularly stark, with recognitions expected to be nearly four times higher than solutions, indicating a growing challenge in providing long-term security for refugees in Kenya.

Data points: - 2019: Recognitions: 6,308; Solutions: 4,251 - 2020: Recognitions: 3,135; Solutions: 3,443 - 2021: Recognitions: 1,116; Solutions: 4,064 - 2022: Recognitions: 4,822; Solutions: 3,174 - 2023: Recognitions: 6,481; Solutions: 4,626 - 2024 (Projected): Recognitions: 17,587; Solutions: 4,707 - 2025 (Projected): Recognitions: 8,112; Solutions: 1,074