Iran: Country Report | 2024

AI Generated Analysis based on UNHCR Forced Displacement Statisitics.

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Executive Summary

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE Key Trends in Displacement: The Islamic Republic of Iran

The Islamic Republic of Iran remains at the epicenter of one of the world’s most significant and protracted displacement crises, a story of profound responsibility and, now, renewed hope. At the start of 2024, Iran hosts 3.49 million people of concern, a staggering figure that underscores its four-decade role as a critical sanctuary. The population is overwhelmingly composed of refugees from Afghanistan (99%), with a youthful demographic that signals a generational need for sustained investment in education, child protection, and health services for both the displaced and their generous host communities.

This year’s data highlights a profound duality. While Iran shoulders the immense responsibility of protecting nearly 3.5 million Afghans—a burden amplified since August 2021—nearly one million of its own nationals are displaced abroad, hosted by a concentrated number of countries. This dual reality of Iran as both a primary host and a significant country of origin lays bare the interconnected nature of regional instability. It serves as an urgent call for more equitable international responsibility-sharing to support frontline states and the communities bearing a disproportionate weight.

Amidst these enduring challenges, the most significant development is a monumental shift towards durable solutions. After years of near stagnation, with only 130 solutions recorded in 2023, the number surged to nearly 60,000 in 2024, with projections exceeding 200,000 for 2025. This historic acceleration signals a pioneering effort by the authorities to resolve the status of long-staying populations. This renewed momentum offers a powerful model for addressing protracted displacement and provides a tangible pathway to a dignified future for hundreds of thousands, demanding the full and unwavering support of the international community.

Population Overview

Global Overview: Populations of Concern

The Islamic Republic of Iran continues to host one of the world’s largest and most protracted refugee situations, with 3.49 million people of concern recorded at the start of 2024. The data reveals that this population is overwhelmingly composed of refugees and asylum-seekers. Reflecting long-standing regional displacement dynamics, the vast majority—nearly 3.48 million individuals or over 99 per cent—originate from neighbouring Afghanistan, with a much smaller population from Iraq.

Behind these stark numbers lies a demographic profile with profound implications for protection and assistance. The population structure is expansive, characterized by a large proportion of children and youth. This youthful profile signals a high dependency ratio and underscores the critical and ongoing need for investment in education, child protection, and maternal and child health services to support both the displaced and their host communities.

While the overall number of people of concern has remained consistently above 3.5 million since 2019, the most recent data indicates a notable shift. Between the end of 2023 and the beginning of 2024, the total population of concern decreased by over 275,000 people. This change was driven almost entirely by a corresponding reduction in the registered refugee population, while other smaller population groups remained stable or saw negligible changes. This overview underscores Iran’s enduring role as a critical host country, shouldering a significant responsibility for a population with immense and generational humanitarian needs.

Demographics

AI Insight: * Treemap chart of population of concern types in Iran, where the total of 3.49 million individuals is overwhelmingly concentrated in one primary category.*, This treemap visualization details the composition of the 3,489,000 individuals classified as populations of concern in the Islamic Republic of Iran as of 2024. The total population is disaggregated into seven distinct categories, with the area of each rectangle in the chart being proportional to the number of individuals in that group.

A key insight from the data is the highly skewed distribution among the categories. One population group constitutes the vast majority of the total, visually dominating the chart with the largest rectangle. The remaining six groups represent significantly smaller portions of the population of concern. According to the statistical profile, known categories include ‘Returned refugees’ with a count of 237,452 individuals and ‘Returned IDPs’ with a count of zero. This visualization effectively highlights that while multiple types of concern exist, the humanitarian focus is numerically dominated by a single, large population group.

AI Insight: Population pyramid of refugees and other populations of concern in Iran by age and gender, where the population structure is expansive, with a large proportion of children and youth., This population pyramid illustrates the age and gender distribution of the 20,378,157 individuals of concern—including refugees, asylum-seekers, and other groups—in Iran as of 2024. The data has 100% gender disaggregation.

The horizontal axis represents the percentage of the population, with males on one side and females on the other. The vertical axis is categorized into five age groups. The overall gender distribution is nearly balanced, with a mean percentage per age group of 10.1% for males and 9.9% for females.

Statistically, the pyramid’s shape is expansive, characterized by a wide base and a narrow top. This indicates a youthful population structure. The largest single age cohort constitutes approximately 22.5% of the male population and 22.6% of the female population. Conversely, the smallest age cohort, likely the elderly (60+), represents only 1.7% of males and 1.5% of females. This demographic profile, with a high dependency ratio, highlights a significant need for UNHCR programs focused on child protection, education, and maternal and child health services in Iran.

Geography & Movements

Geography of Displacement: The Dual Role of the Islamic Republic of Iran

The geography of displacement related to the Islamic Republic of Iran reveals a dual narrative of the country as both a major host nation and a significant country of origin. This complex dynamic underscores the profound and interconnected nature of forced displacement in the region.

As one of the world’s principal refugee-hosting nations, Iran provides protection to a vast displaced population, the overwhelming majority of whom are from neighbouring Afghanistan. At 3.48 million, refugees from Afghanistan constitute over 99 per cent of the refugee population in Iran, a figure that dwarfs all other groups, such as the approximately 12,000 refugees from Iraq. The data reveals this is not a static situation. A dramatic increase in the Afghan population since 2019, particularly following the events of August 2021, underscores the immense and ongoing impact of the Afghan crisis on Iran as a frontline state.

Concurrently, populations originating from Iran also seek protection abroad, with their destinations illustrating a pattern of concentrated responsibility. Analysis of 79 destination countries reveals a starkly skewed distribution, where a small number of nations bear the primary responsibility for hosting displaced Iranians. The mean number of people hosted per country is substantially higher than the median, pointing to the disproportionate role played by a few key asylum countries.

Behind these stark numbers, the leading country of asylum alone hosts nearly one million forcibly displaced people from Iran, a figure that highlights the significant pressure on the resources and protection systems of these specific host communities. This dual reality—of Iran shouldering an immense responsibility for Afghan refugees while its own nationals seek refuge in a concentrated number of other countries—emphasizes the critical need for sustained international solidarity and equitable responsibility-sharing to support all those affected by displacement.

AI Insight: Choropleth map of destination countries for people of concern from Iran, where the population is heavily concentrated in a small number of host countries., This world map illustrates the distribution of refugees, asylum-seekers, and other people of concern originating from the Islamic Republic of Iran as of 2024. The data is visualized using a choropleth technique, where countries are color-coded based on the number of individuals they host.

Statistical analysis of the underlying data, which covers 79 destination countries, reveals a highly skewed distribution. The number of people of concern per country ranges from a minimum of 5 to a maximum of 62,361. The median value is 81, indicating that half of the host countries have 81 or fewer individuals from Iran. However, the mean is substantially higher at 2,703, which points to the significant impact of a few countries hosting very large populations. The interquartile range, from 13 (25th percentile) to 306 (75th percentile), further highlights that the majority of countries host relatively small populations. This concentration implies that the responsibility for protecting and assisting displaced people from Iran is borne by a select group of nations.

Origin of Displaced Populations

AI Insight: Horizontal bar chart of the number of refugees in Iran by country of origin for 2024, where the overwhelming majority are from Afghanistan at approximately 3.48 million, with a much smaller population from Iraq at just over 12,000., This horizontal bar chart, titled ‘Iran (Islamic Rep. of): Refugees | 2024’, illustrates the number of refugees residing in Iran from their top countries of origin. Although the subtitle indicates ‘Top 9 Countries of Origin’, this visualization specifically displays data for two countries.

The horizontal axis represents the number of people. The data reveals a significant disparity between the two origin countries presented:

  • Afghanistan: 3,477,082 refugees
  • Iraq: 12,175 refugees

Analysis of the data shows that refugees from Afghanistan comprise approximately 99.6% of the total refugee population depicted in the chart. The number of Afghan refugees is more than 285 times larger than the number of Iraqi refugees. This stark contrast underscores Iran’s long-standing role as a major host country for populations displaced from neighboring Afghanistan due to decades of conflict and instability.

AI Insight: Alluvial diagram of the forcibly displaced population in Iran by country of origin from 2019 to 2025, where the population from Afghanistan increases dramatically while the population from other origins remains relatively small and stable., This alluvial diagram illustrates the evolution of the forcibly displaced population hosted in Iran between 2019 and 2025, categorized by origin. The chart displays two primary flows: people from Afghanistan (‘Afg’) and people from ‘Other’ origins (‘Oth’).

The most significant trend is the massive increase in the population originating from Afghanistan. This flow, represented by a wide and expanding band, indicates a substantial influx over the years. In contrast, the flow for displaced people from ‘Other’ origins is a very thin, consistent band, showing that this population remained small and relatively unchanged throughout the same period.

Statistical analysis reveals that while the number of origins is limited to two groups, the scale of displacement varies enormously. The total values range from approximately 11,900 to over 3.75 million people. The data strongly suggests a major displacement event occurred, causing the Afghan population to swell and become the overwhelmingly dominant group of forcibly displaced people in Iran. This visual pattern is consistent with the humanitarian crisis following the change in government in Afghanistan in August 2021.

Destination

AI Insight: Bar chart of the top 10 destination countries for forcibly displaced people from Iran as of 2024, where the top destination hosts nearly one million people, significantly more than other countries., This horizontal bar chart displays the top 10 countries of asylum for forcibly displaced populations originating from the Islamic Republic of Iran, with data reported as of 2024. The analysis covers ten host countries, showing a significant concentration of displaced individuals in a few key nations.

Statistical analysis reveals a wide and right-skewed distribution in the number of displaced people across these countries. The number of displaced persons ranges from a maximum of 994,587 in the top destination country to a minimum of 127,182 in the tenth-ranked country. The average (mean) number of displaced people per country is approximately 448,733, while the median is 398,212. The mean being higher than the median indicates that the top-ranked countries host a disproportionately large number of individuals, pulling the average up.

From a humanitarian perspective, this data highlights a critical concentration of the Iranian displaced population. The leading destination country provides refuge for nearly one million people, which underscores the immense pressure on its resources and services. This concentration may reflect geographical proximity, established diaspora communities, or specific asylum policies. For UNHCR and partner organizations, this distribution pattern is crucial for strategic planning, resource allocation, and advocacy efforts to support both the displaced population and the host communities bearing the greatest responsibility.

Asylum System

The Complexities of Asylum Adjudication

The data on asylum systems in 2024 reveals a complex and varied landscape, where protection outcomes are heavily influenced by both the applicant’s country of origin and their country of asylum. While longitudinal data on application trends and processing times in the Islamic Republic of Iran remains limited, a detailed snapshot of decisions made within the year offers crucial insights into one of the world’s major refugee-hosting nations.

In 2024, the Islamic Republic of Iran adjudicated a significant volume of cases, with 237,520 individual Refugee Status Determination (RSD) decisions recorded. The data reveals that the vast majority of these were finalized at the first-instance level. A key finding is the high recognition rate at this initial stage, where 147,874 individuals—representing 62.3% of all decisions—were granted refugee status. This points to a robust process for those whose claims are fully processed. However, a substantial number of cases (87,358) were ‘Otherwise closed’, a category that typically includes applications withdrawn or abandoned by the applicant, often for administrative reasons.

Behind these aggregate figures, the data underscores a significant disparity in outcomes based on nationality. For asylum-seekers in Iran, the recognition rate varied dramatically, from as low as 12.6% for some nationalities to a full 100% for others, highlighting how different protection needs are assessed within the same national system.

This variability is not unique to the asylum system within Iran; it reflects a wider global phenomenon. Examining the outcomes for nationals from the Islamic Republic of Iran seeking protection abroad reinforces this point. The likelihood of an Iranian asylum-seeker being granted protection differs substantially depending on the country of asylum, with recognition rates in the top 10 host countries ranging from a high of 87% to a low of 19.5%.

Taken together, these data points illustrate that access to international protection is far from uniform. The journey of an asylum-seeker is shaped by intersecting factors, creating a global protection environment where the outcome can depend as much on geography and nationality as on the individual merits of a claim.

AI Insight: Bar chart of Asylum Applications & Decisions in Iran from 2019 to 2024, where no data is available to be displayed., This chart is intended to display the number of asylum applications and decisions for individuals from the Islamic Republic of Iran between 2019 and 2024. However, the chart is blank because the underlying dataset contains no records. The statistical profile confirms zero rows of data, meaning no information on asylum stages, years, or totals could be rendered. This absence of data should not be interpreted as zero applications, but rather as a lack of available information for this specific query in the dataset.

AI Insight: Parallel sets plot of refugee status determination decisions by level and outcome in Iran for 2024, where the majority of cases (147,874) were recognized as refugees at the first instance., This parallel sets plot provides a detailed breakdown of the 237,520 Refugee Status Determination (RSD) decisions recorded in the Islamic Republic of Iran in 2024. The visualization maps the flow of cases from the decision-making level on the left to the final outcome on the right.

Decision Levels and Outcomes: The process is divided into three main levels: 1. First instance: The initial decision on an asylum claim. This level accounts for the vast majority of cases, totaling 228,873 decisions. 2. Appeal/review: Cases that are re-examined after an initial decision. This level handled 8,642 cases. 3. Reopening: A small number of cases (5) that were reopened for reconsideration.

Statistical Analysis: * Dominant Flow: The most significant finding is the high number of positive decisions at the first instance. 147,874 individuals, representing 62.3% of all decisions, were granted refugee status at this initial stage. * ‘Otherwise Closed’ Cases: A substantial number of cases were categorized as ‘Otherwise closed’, totaling 87,358 across all levels. This is the second-largest outcome, with 78,851 at the first instance and 8,502 at the appeal/review stage. This category typically includes applications closed for administrative reasons, such as the applicant’s withdrawal or abandonment of the claim. * Rejections: The number of outright rejections was comparatively low, with 2,143 cases rejected at the first instance and only 15 at the appeal/review level. * Appeal/Review Stage: The appeal process primarily resulted in cases being ‘Otherwise closed’ (8,502 cases), with a small number being granted refugee status (125 cases).

In summary, the data indicates a robust first-instance decision-making process in Iran for 2024, characterized by a high refugee recognition rate. The significant volume of ‘Otherwise closed’ cases suggests that administrative closures are a major factor in the final disposition of asylum claims.

AI Insight: Area chart of cumulative asylum applications versus decisions in Iran, where no data is available to display., This visualization is intended to be an area chart showing the cumulative total of asylum applications and first-instance decisions in the Islamic Republic of Iran, with the goal of illustrating the processing time gap up to 2024. However, the chart is empty because the underlying dataset contains no data. The statistical profile indicates zero rows, meaning no information on asylum flows, years, or counts is available. Therefore, it is not possible to analyze or display any trends related to asylum processing times in Iran.

Recognition Rates

AI Insight: Column chart of Refugee Recognition Rates by country of origin in Iran for 2024, where rates vary significantly, ranging from 12.6% to a full 100%., This vertical column chart displays the 2024 refugee recognition rates in Iran for the top 7 countries of origin, ranked by the total number of asylum decisions. Each column represents a country, and its height indicates the percentage of positive decisions for that nationality.

The statistical analysis reveals a significant variation in outcomes. Across the 7 nationalities shown, the recognition rates range from a minimum of 12.6% to a maximum of 100%. The average refugee recognition rate is 47.7%, with a median of 43.3%, suggesting a slight skew towards higher rates. The high standard deviation of 31.5% further underscores the wide disparity in recognition among different groups.

The absolute number of decisions also varies dramatically, from 11 to 236,602, which is the basis for the ranking. The ‘Total Recognition Rate’, which includes complementary protection, is 48.1%, only slightly higher than the refugee recognition rate, indicating that complementary protection is not a frequent outcome for these cohorts in Iran.

AI Insight: Column chart of the Refugee Recognition Rate for Iranian nationals across the top 10 countries of asylum in 2024, where the rate varies widely from 87% down to 19.5%., This column chart displays the 2024 Refugee Recognition Rate for nationals from the Islamic Republic of Iran. The data is presented for the top 10 countries of asylum, which are ordered by the total number of asylum decisions processed, not by the recognition rate itself.

The Refugee Recognition Rate, calculated as the number of individuals ‘Recognized’ divided by the ‘Total Decided’ cases, shows significant variation across these countries. The rates range from a high of 87% to a low of 19.5%, with a mean rate of 43% and a median of 43.4%. The interquartile range for recognition rates spans from 25.5% to 51.5%, indicating that half of these top 10 countries have rates within this band.

The volume of decisions made in these countries also varies considerably, from 17,556 in the country with the fewest decisions to 200,207 in the country with the most. When including complementary protection, the Total Recognition Rate is slightly higher, with a mean of 45.7%. This analysis underscores that the likelihood of an Iranian asylum seeker being granted protection differs substantially depending on the country in which they apply.

Solutions

A Renewed Focus on Solutions in the Islamic Republic of Iran

The global pursuit of durable solutions for the forcibly displaced remains one of the most significant challenges in humanitarian protection. While progress is often slow and incremental, recent data from the Islamic Republic of Iran reveals a dramatic and encouraging shift in this landscape, pointing towards a renewed commitment to resolving one of the world’s most protracted displacement situations.

For years, the pathway to durable solutions—whether through voluntary repatriation, local integration, or resettlement—was extremely narrow for the millions of displaced individuals, primarily from Afghanistan, hosted in the country. The data reflects this stagnation, with the number of solutions realized annually declining from 502 in 2019 to just 130 in 2023.

However, 2024 marks a pivotal turning point. The number of solutions recorded surged to nearly 60,000, with projections for 2025 indicating a further exponential increase to over 200,000. This sudden, large-scale increase constitutes a monumental shift, signaling the launch of a significant new policy framework or large-scale programme aimed at providing stability and a secure future for long-staying populations.

This remarkable acceleration in providing solutions stands in stark contrast to the country’s formal refugee status determination process. While the provision of solutions is scaling up at an unprecedented rate, the number of individuals newly recognized as refugees remains exceptionally low, with only 34 such cases recorded in 2023. This disparity suggests that the current initiatives are focused not on new arrivals, but on resolving the status of the long-standing refugee and displaced communities who have been generously hosted by the Islamic Republic of Iran for over four decades.

Behind these stark numbers lies a story of renewed momentum. The successful implementation of these ambitious initiatives will be critical not only in offering a dignified future to hundreds of thousands of individuals but also in providing a powerful example of how host countries can pioneer large-scale solutions for protracted displacement.

AI Insight: Column chart of durable solutions for forcibly displaced people in Iran from 2019 to 2025, where the number of solutions was minimal until a dramatic increase in 2024., This column chart illustrates the number of durable solutions for forcibly displaced people in the Islamic Republic of Iran for each year from 2019 to 2025. The horizontal axis represents the year, and the vertical axis indicates the total number of solutions.

The data shows two distinct periods. From 2019 to 2023, the number of solutions was very low and showed a slight downward trend. The specific figures are: 502 in 2019, 237 in 2020, 220 in 2021, 134 in 2022, and 130 in 2023.

A significant shift occurs in 2024, with the number of solutions surging to 59,363. The trend continues to escalate dramatically in 2025, with a value of 202,517. Given that the data is reported as of 2024, the figure for 2025 likely represents a projection or a planned target rather than a recorded outcome. This dramatic increase from 2024 onwards suggests a major new initiative, policy change, or large-scale program related to durable solutions for displaced populations in the country.

AI Insight: Line chart of refugee recognitions versus available solutions in Iran from 2019 to 2025, where solutions sharply increased from 2024, vastly exceeding the number of new recognitions., This line chart compares the annual number of new refugee recognitions against the number of available durable solutions in the Islamic Republic of Iran for the period 2019-2025. The data reveals a significant disparity between the two metrics.

The number of ‘Solutions’ (which may include voluntary repatriation, resettlement, or local integration) shows a sharp, exponential increase towards the end of the period. After decreasing from 2,009 in 2019 to 521 in 2023, the figure jumps dramatically to 237,452 in 2024 and is projected to reach 810,067 in 2025.

Conversely, data for ‘Recognitions’ (individuals granted refugee status) is extremely limited. The only available data point is for 2023, when only 34 individuals were recognized as refugees. Data for all other years is missing.

The key takeaway is the immense and growing gap between the provision of solutions and the formal recognition of refugee status. The massive scale-up of solutions from 2024 onwards suggests a significant policy or program initiative, which starkly contrasts with the very low number of individual recognitions recorded.