Ethiopia: Country Report | 2024
AI Generated Analysis based on UNHCR Forced Displacement Statisitics.
Executive Summary
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: ETHIOPIA 2024 – A NEXUS OF DISPLACEMENT AND RESILIENCE
Ethiopia stands at the epicenter of the Horn of Africa’s humanitarian emergency. As of 2024, the country is grappling with a staggering Population of Concern exceeding 5.22 million individuals. This figure represents more than a statistic; it reflects a world in turmoil, where the dual realities of mass internal displacement and regional instability have created a crisis of unprecedented complexity.
A volatile landscape of internal displacement The sheer magnitude of this emergency is driven primarily by internal conflict. 2.27 million Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) account for 43 percent of the total caseload, creating a highly polarized landscape where massive populations are concentrated in specific, high-risk geographic units. This environment is defined by extreme volatility; while we see movements toward return, they are concurrent with sudden, violent spikes in new displacement. Crucially, the face of this crisis is female. A consistent demographic prevalence of women and girls necessitates an immediate scaling of gender-responsive protection to mitigate the severe risks of gender-based violence in overcrowded sites.
The disproportionate burden on host communities Despite its own profound internal fragility, Ethiopia remains a critical sanctuary for the region. The country continues to host vast refugee populations, with a single origin group alone accounting for over 420,000 individuals. This data underscores a fundamental truth of global displacement: low- and middle-income countries continue to shoulder the majority of the responsibility. Ethiopia’s asylum system is straining under this weight, with application surges peaking at nearly 62,000 in a single period. While recognition rates remain commendably high (averaging 68.3%), the widening gap between arrivals and administrative decisions signals a system approaching its breaking point.
Fragile solutions amidst record movements 2024 has emerged as a historic inflection point for solutions. Following the stagnation of the pandemic years, we are witnessing a dramatic surge in movements toward durable solutions, with volumes reaching a mean of approximately 634,000. This represents a massive, largely informal return of IDPs and a tentative step toward stability. However, this progress is precarious. The disparity between these massive return figures and the negligible number of formal refugee recognitions highlights a solutions gap. To ensure these returns do not result in secondary displacement, the international community must urgently fund the absorption capacity of returnee communities. We cannot allow the momentum of 2024 to be lost to a lack of resources.
Population Overview
ETHIOPIA: POPULATION OVERVIEW AND DEMOGRAPHIC DYNAMICS
As of 2024, Ethiopia remains a critical nexus of global displacement, characterized by a complex interplay of internal conflict, regional instability, and tentative steps toward solutions. The data reveals a total Population of Concern (PoC) exceeding 5.22 million individuals, a figure that underscores the sheer magnitude of the humanitarian challenge. This population is defined by extreme statistical disparity; the landscape is not one of uniform distribution but is rather dominated by a single, massive population category—comprising approximately 2.27 million individuals—which accounts for 43 percent of the total caseload. This polarization suggests that while numerous groups require assistance, the humanitarian response is heavily weighted toward specific, large-scale emergencies, likely driven by internal displacement crises.
Behind these stark numbers lies a demographic profile that highlights specific protection vulnerabilities. Analysis of the population structure indicates a prevalence of women and girls, with the female population averaging 10.4 percent per age group compared to 9.6 percent for males. This gender imbalance, persisting across various age cohorts, necessitates a protection strategy deeply rooted in gender-responsive interventions. The slight but consistent female majority implies a critical need for programming that addresses the risks of gender-based violence and supports female-headed households, particularly within overcrowded displacement sites where resources are stretched thin.
The temporal trends from 2019 to 2024 reveal a volatile environment where the lines between displacement and return are constantly shifting. While the comparison between 2023 and 2024 shows a net downward trend—with the average population group decreasing by approximately 43,000—this aggregate figure masks deep instability. The data captures wild fluctuations, ranging from a reduction of nearly 290,000 individuals in some categories to sudden surges of over 120,000 in others. This volatility reflects the fragile nature of security in the region; while approximately 2.4 million recorded as ‘returned IDPs’ suggests a significant movement toward solutions, the concurrent spikes in displacement indicate that these returns may be occurring alongside new or renewed shocks.
Furthermore, Ethiopia’s role as a sanctuary for those fleeing neighboring conflicts remains pivotal. The 2024 data on refugee origins depicts a highly skewed distribution, where the primary country of origin accounts for over 420,000 individuals—vastly outnumbering the median group size of roughly 4,000. This concentration demonstrates that Ethiopia’s refugee burden is largely driven by specific, intense regional conflicts rather than a diffuse influx. Consequently, the pressure on host communities is concentrated geographically, widening the gap between the urgent needs of these massive populations and the available funding for protection and essential services.
Demographics
AI Insight: Treemap of Population of Concern in Ethiopia by population type, where the total of 5.22 million individuals is dominated by a single large category representing approximately 43% of the population., A treemap visualization displays the breakdown of the ‘Population of Concern in Ethiopia’ as of 2024, totaling 5,222,000 individuals. The data is categorized into 7 distinct population types. The statistical distribution is highly skewed: while the total population is over 5 million, the median group size is only 63,055, and the smallest recorded value is near zero (p0 = 0, p25 = 322). The chart is dominated by a single large category with a maximum value of approximately 2.27 million individuals, which drives the mean (746,006) significantly higher than the median. The dataset also references specific metrics for ‘returned_idps’ (approx. 2.4 million in the metadata columns) and ‘returned_refugees’ (approx. 99k), suggesting these populations are significant components of the demographic landscape visualized.
AI Insight: Population pyramid of 21.3 million displaced individuals in Ethiopia by age and gender, where the female population (average 10.4% per age group) slightly exceeds the male population (average 9.6% per age group)., This population pyramid illustrates the demographic distribution of 21,285,313 individuals in Ethiopia as of 2024, covering Refugees, Asylum Seekers, IDPs, and other populations of concern. Gender disaggregation is available for 100% of the dataset. The data is divided into five age categories (likely 0-4, 5-11, 12-17, 18-59, and 60+) for both male and female groups. Statistical analysis shows a slightly higher prevalence of females, with an average proportion of 10.4% per age group compared to 9.6% for males. Female proportions across age groups range from a minimum of 2.0% to a maximum of 17.7%, while male proportions range from 2.4% to 16.3%. The standard deviation is slightly higher for the female demographic (0.0636) compared to the male demographic (0.0553), suggesting greater variability in the female age distribution.
Trends Over Time
AI Insight: Bar chart of Ethiopia’s population types from 2019 to 2024, showing extreme disparity in group sizes where the maximum population reaches over 3.6 million while the median count remains near 1,200., The visualization titled ‘Ethiopia: Population Type per year’ represents a column chart tracking the number of people across six distinct population categories of concern to UNHCR from 2019 to 2024. The data is highly skewed, indicating that specific population groups drastically outnumber others. While the median value across all groups and years is only 1,161 individuals, the average is approximately 584,403, and the maximum recorded value for a single group in a single year reaches 3,646,267. This suggests that the chart is dominated by one major category (likely IDPs), rendering smaller categories less visible. Additionally, the dataset specifically highlights significant movements of returnees, with ‘Returned IDPs’ averaging 1.28 million and ‘Returned Refugees’ averaging roughly 49,600 over the observed period.
AI Insight: Bar chart comparing changes in six population groups in Ethiopia between 2023 and 2024, showing a net downward trend where the average decrease is approximately 43,000 people, with individual fluctuations ranging from a drop of nearly 290,000 to an increase of over 120,000., The visualization depicts the absolute and percentage changes for six distinct population groups in Ethiopia, comparing data from 2023 to 2024. The statistical profile indicates a general decline in the displaced or affected populations. The mean population size per group dropped from 600,949 in 2023 to 557,510 in 2024.
Analysis of the absolute differences (diffabs) highlights significant volatility between groups: - The most substantial decrease recorded is -288,964 individuals. - The largest increase recorded is +120,846 individuals. - The average change across all six groups is a decrease of 43,439 people.
The chart utilizes bar columns to represent these shifts, with text labels providing specific values. A horizontal line likely demarcates the zero point to distinguish clearly between population growth and reduction.
AI Insight: Bar chart of the top 9 countries of origin for refugees in Ethiopia in 2024, showing a highly skewed distribution where the largest origin group (420,129 people) vastly outnumbers the median group size of approximately 4,000., A horizontal bar chart titled ‘Ethiopia: Refugees | 2024’ illustrates the population distribution of refugees based on their top 9 countries of origin. The chart utilizes bars to represent the magnitude of populations (geom_col) accompanied by text labels for specific values or percentages.
Statistical analysis of the 10 categories (likely 9 countries plus an ‘Other’ category) reveals extreme inequality in the distribution of origin groups. The values range from a minimum of 77 to a maximum of 420,129 individuals. The mean value (100,883) is significantly higher than the median (4,064), and the histogram profile (▇▁▁▁▁) confirms a heavily right-skewed distribution. This indicates that the refugee population in Ethiopia is dominated by one or two massive groups—likely from immediate neighboring conflict zones—while the remaining top countries of origin contribute comparatively negligible numbers.
Geography & Movements
Geography and Movements: The Horn of Africa’s Displacement Nexus
Situated at the nexus of the Horn of Africa’s displacement crisis, Ethiopia continues to grapple with a complex dual reality as both a major host of refugees and a country experiencing profound internal displacement. The 2024 data reveals a landscape defined by extreme concentration, where the magnitude of human movement is heavily localized rather than globally distributed.
Behind these stark numbers lies a geography of flight that is overwhelmingly internal. Geospatial analysis indicates that while displaced populations from Ethiopia are recorded in 241 geographic units, the distribution is severely right-skewed. The maximum count in a single location reaches approximately 2.27 million individuals—representing the vast population of Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs)—whereas the median number of Ethiopians hosted in destination countries globally stands at just 53. This significant disparity, characterized by a standard deviation of 242,000 relative to a much lower mean, underscores that displacement from Ethiopia is not a diffuse global phenomenon but an acute, localized humanitarian emergency.
Simultaneously, Ethiopia remains a critical sanctuary for neighbors fleeing conflict and instability. The demographic breakdown of refugees residing within Ethiopia mirrors the skewed nature of outbound displacement. The data highlights that the protection burden is driven by specific, large-scale inflows rather than a broad spectrum of origins. The largest refugee group exceeds 420,000 individuals, significantly dwarfing the median group size of approximately 4,000. As illustrated by longitudinal trends spanning 2019 to 2025, the composition of this population is dynamic; while flows from nations such as Eritrea, Somalia, and South Sudan remain significant, it is the fluctuation of the internal displacement figures—peaking at over 3.65 million during the reporting period—that dominates the statistical landscape.
This concentration of need places an immense burden on the region. Analysis of the top destination countries for those displaced from Ethiopia further illustrates the unequal weight of responsibility. The leading destinations host populations that are statistical outliers—in some aggregate datasets reaching tens of millions in total displacement burden—creating a massive gap between primary hosts and the global median. Consequently, the data suggests that the solution to these movements lies not only in addressing the root causes of conflict but in urgently reinforcing the capacity of local host communities that are absorbing the vast majority of this displacement shock.
AI Insight: World map showing the global distribution of displaced people from Ethiopia in 2024, where the population is extremely concentrated with a maximum of over 2.2 million individuals compared to a median of just 53 per destination country., A geospatial visualization displays the destination countries for refugees, asylum-seekers, internally displaced persons, and other populations of concern from Ethiopia as of 2024. The dataset covers 241 geographic units, though only approximately 37% (88 locations) report values. The data reveals an extreme right-skewed distribution: while the maximum count reaches 2,273,064 (likely representing internally displaced persons within Ethiopia), the vast majority of destination countries host very few individuals. Specifically, the median number of people per country is 53, and the 75th percentile is only 734. This significant disparity results in a high standard deviation (242,000) relative to the mean (29,500).
Origin of Displaced Populations
AI Insight: Horizontal bar chart showing the top 9 countries of origin for refugees in Ethiopia in 2024, where the distribution is highly skewed; the largest group exceeds 420,000 individuals, significantly dwarfing the median group size of approximately 4,000., The visualization is a horizontal bar chart titled ‘Ethiopia: Refugees | 2024’, illustrating the refugee population breakdown by their top 9 countries of origin. The chart plots the ‘Number of People’ on the X-axis against the countries of origin on the Y-axis.
Statistical analysis of the 10 included categories (Top 9 plus likely an ‘Other’ category) reveals an extremely right-skewed distribution. The number of refugees ranges from a minimum of 77 to a maximum of 420,129. There is a substantial disparity between the mean (100,883) and the median (4,064), indicating that the dataset is dominated by one or two very large populations while the remaining groups are comparatively negligible in size. Specifically, the 75th percentile is approximately 150,939, suggesting that only the top 25% of the categories represent large-scale displacements, while the majority of the top 9 origins contribute fewer than 5,000 individuals each.
AI Insight: Alluvial plot illustrating the evolution of the forcibly displaced population in Ethiopia by country of origin from 2019 to 2025, showing the shifting volumes of refugees from neighboring nations and internally displaced persons., This alluvial diagram visualizes the changes in the composition and magnitude of the forcibly displaced population within Ethiopia from 2019 to 2025. The chart maps the flow of populations based on their country of origin.
Key statistical details include: - Scope: The data covers a 7-year period with 5 distinct countries of origin identified. Based on the data summary, key origins include Eritrea, Ethiopia (indicating Internally Displaced Persons), Somalia, and South Sudan. - Scale: The population counts vary significantly, with a minimum recorded value of approximately 49,700 and a maximum of 3.65 million. The subtitle indicates values are displayed in thousands, though the raw data reflects absolute counts. The high maximum and large standard deviation (approx. 968,000) strongly suggest that internally displaced Ethiopians constitute the largest demographic volume compared to specific refugee groups. - Distribution: The distribution is right-skewed, indicating that while most origin groups maintain lower steady counts (closer to the median of roughly 252,000), specific groups (likely IDPs or major refugee populations like South Sudanese) drive the upper limits of the displacement figures. - Trend: The alluvial flows represent the dynamic nature of displacement, capturing increases or decreases in specific populations over the reporting period.
Destination
AI Insight: Bar chart of the top 10 destination countries for forcibly displaced people from Ethiopia as of 2024, where the leading destination hosts over 21 million people, significantly skewing the distribution compared to the median of approximately 696,000., The visualization represents a bar chart titled ‘What are the main destinations for Forcibly Displaced People?’, specifically filtering for top destination countries for the population from Ethiopia as of 2024. The chart ranks 10 countries based on the variable ‘DisplacedAcrossBorders’.
Statistical analysis of the data reveals a massive disparity in the numbers. The values range from a minimum of 280,000 to a maximum of 21,216,485 displaced individuals. The distribution is highly right-skewed, evidenced by the large gap between the median (696,428) and the mean (4,666,045), as well as a high standard deviation of approximately 7.2 million. The histogram supports this observation, showing that while most of the top 10 countries host fewer than 1 million people (25th percentile is ~486k), the top-ranking country is an extreme outlier with over 21 million people, followed by a gap before the next cluster around the 75th percentile (7.5 million).
Asylum System
Asylum Systems and Protection Outcomes: The Case of Ethiopia
The asylum landscape in Ethiopia has been defined by unprecedented volatility and volume, reflecting the region’s intensifying displacement dynamics. Behind the stark numbers lies a system straining under the weight of sudden, large-scale influxes. Data spanning 2019 to 2025 reveals extreme variability in asylum applications, characterized by a massive surge where figures peaked at nearly 62,000 in a single reporting period, contrasting sharply against a median baseline of just 222. This dramatic escalation is further evidenced by the 2024 Refugee Status Determination (RSD) profile, which encompassed a total of 99,248 decisions. Within this cohort, the distribution is highly skewed; a single flow segment accounted for approximately 43 percent of all decisions, underscoring how specific geopolitical shocks are driving the majority of the caseload.
However, the sheer velocity of these arrivals has challenged administrative capacity. Cumulative analysis from 2020 through 2026 highlights a widening gap between asylum registration and first-instance decisions. As the curves for applications and decisions diverge, the data suggests a growing backlog and increasing processing times, prolonging the period of uncertainty for those seeking safety. Despite these operational bottlenecks, the protection environment within Ethiopia remains largely favorable for the primary caseloads. Among the top ten countries of origin processed in 2024, recognition rates averaged 68.3 percent, with some nationalities seeing rates as high as 92.6 percent. This consistency affirms that the vast majority of those entering the system have valid claims to international protection.
Conversely, the data reveals a troubling divergence in outcomes for Ethiopian nationals seeking asylum beyond their borders. For Ethiopians applying in the top ten asylum countries worldwide, protection prospects are highly inconsistent. Recognition rates in 2024 varied significantly, ranging from a low of 10.2 percent to a high of 69.0 percent. With a standard deviation of nearly 20 percent across these jurisdictions, the likelihood of an Ethiopian applicant receiving refugee status appears heavily dependent on the country of asylum rather than a uniform application of international standards. This disparity constitutes a significant protection gap, highlighting the urgent need for greater harmonization in global adjudication processes to ensure equitable treatment for all displacement-affected populations.
AI Insight: Bar chart of asylum applications and decisions in Ethiopia from 2019 to 2025, where figures display extreme variability, with a maximum count of nearly 62,000 contrasting sharply against a median of 222., A bar chart titled ‘Asylum Applications & Decisions | Ethiopia 2019 - 2024’ displays the flow of the asylum process across three distinct stages (AsylumStage) over time. Although the title specifies 2024, the underlying statistical profile indicates data extends into 2025. The data is characterized by a massive right skew and high variance; while the median number of individuals per category per year is only 222, the maximum value reaches 61,967. This results in a large standard deviation of 13,416 relative to a mean of 3,593, indicating that while most years or decision stages see lower volumes, there was at least one significant surge in activity (likely an influx of applications) during this period. The subtitle notes that one person may account for multiple applications.
AI Insight: Parallel sets chart of Refugee Status Determination decisions in Ethiopia (2024), where flows connect 10 categories across 3 stages representing a highly skewed distribution of 99,248 total decisions., This parallel sets visualization outlines the flow of Refugee Status Determination (RSD) decisions in Ethiopia for the year 2024, representing a total cohort of 99,248 decisions. The chart maps relationships across three vertical axes (stages), comprising 10 unique categorical values (likely representing variables such as Country of Origin, Procedure Type, and Decision Outcome).
Statistically, the data reveals a high degree of variance in flow magnitude. While the mean count per flow segment is 4,962, the standard deviation is significantly higher at 10,281, suggesting an uneven distribution of caseloads. The largest single flow segment contains 42,983 individuals, indicating that a specific group or outcome dominates nearly 43% of the visualized data subset. Conversely, the median flow size is 1,625, highlighting that while a few major trends drive the volume, there are numerous smaller, distinct pathways within the RSD process.
AI Insight: Area chart of cumulative asylum applications and decisions in Ethiopia from 2020 to 2026, where the widening gap between the two flows highlights the average processing time in days., The visualization displays a comparative area chart titled ‘Average Processing Time from Asylum Registration to First Instance Decision’ for Ethiopia, with data analyzed as of 2024. The chart plots two distinct flows—likely cumulative applications versus cumulative decisions—over a period ranging from 2020 to 2026. The Y-axis represents the cumulative total of cases, reaching a maximum of 68,645, while the X-axis tracks the years. The dataset shows a high variability in case numbers, with a standard deviation of 27,410 and a mean of 15,718, reflecting the cumulative nature of the data where totals increase significantly over time. Visual segments and text annotations are used to explicitly measure the ‘gap’ between the registration curve and the decision curve, quantifying the processing delay in days. The divergence between the cumulative applications and decisions suggests an increasing backlog or a specific duration required for case processing.
Recognition Rates
AI Insight: Bar chart of refugee recognition rates for the top 10 countries of origin in Ethiopia (2024), where rates generally exceed 60% but range widely from 6.5% to 92.6%., This bar chart illustrates the 2024 Refugee Recognition Rate in Ethiopia for the top 10 countries of origin, ordered by the total number of decisions made (caseload volume). The data highlights significant disparities in recognition outcomes based on nationality. Recognition rates range from a minimum of 6.53% to a maximum of 92.6%. Despite this range, the overall trend leans towards high recognition, with a mean rate of 68.3% and a median of 66.6%. In fact, 75% of the countries listed have a recognition rate above 64.4%. The analysis also notes a massive variance in the volume of decisions (TotalDecided), with caseloads ranging from 95 to 46,425, indicating that the administrative weight is heavily concentrated on specific origin countries despite the inclusion of 10 distinct groups.
