Egypt: Country Report | 2024
AI Generated Analysis based on UNHCR Forced Displacement Statisitics.
Executive Summary
Key Trends: Egypt at the Epicenter of a New Displacement Crisis
A World in Turmoil, A Region Reshaped
Egypt stands at the epicenter of one of the world’s most dramatic and rapid new displacement crises, with a humanitarian landscape profoundly reshaped by regional conflict. The total population of concern has surged to over 575,000, more than doubling since 2019. This unprecedented growth is overwhelmingly driven by the devastating conflict in Sudan, which has forced hundreds of thousands to seek safety in Egypt. In the past year alone, the population grew by 85 per cent—an influx of over 407,000 people—placing immense, unprecedented strain on Egypt’s national asylum systems and host communities.
Overwhelmed Systems and the Generosity of a Nation
This massive and sudden influx has pushed protection capacity to its limits. Asylum applications and decisions peaked at over 437,000, with the near-98 per cent recognition rate for Sudanese nationals underscoring the undeniable need for international protection. However, the rate of new arrivals has far outpaced processing capacity, creating a significant and growing backlog that leaves vulnerable families in prolonged uncertainty. Amid this immense pressure, we must recognize the enduring generosity of the Egyptian people and government. Low- and middle-income countries like Egypt continue to host the vast majority of the world’s displaced, and their contribution to global stability and human dignity cannot be overstated.
A Paradigm Shift in Solutions on the Horizon
Amid this crisis, however, a potential paradigm shift in solutions is emerging. After years where new arrivals far outpaced durable solutions, a landmark expansion of pathways to safety and stability is underway. Projections indicate a surge to over 9,400 solutions in 2024, accelerating to a remarkable total of nearly 200,000 in 2025 through resettlement and other pathways. This beacon of hope would not only provide life-changing opportunities for refugees but also significantly alleviate pressure on Egypt as a critical host country. Realizing this potential, however, demands urgent and scaled-up international support. Sustained political will and commensurate financial commitments are essential to turn these projections into reality and ensure that solidarity is not a concept, but a commitment we deliver upon.
Population Overview
Population Overview
The scale of forced displacement in Egypt has undergone a dramatic transformation, with the total population of concern more than doubling since 2019 to reach over 575,000 by early 2024. The data reveals that this sharp trajectory is overwhelmingly a recent phenomenon, driven by a major influx of refugees and asylum-seekers that began in 2023.
The primary driver of this unprecedented growth has been the conflict in Sudan, which erupted in April 2023. In the year that followed, the population of concern grew by more than 407,000 individuals—an 85 per cent increase—almost entirely attributed to the arrival of Sudanese seeking safety. This single crisis has profoundly reshaped the humanitarian landscape in the country, adding a massive new emergency caseload on top of existing protracted situations. Indeed, while new arrivals from Sudan dominate the recent increase, Egypt continues to host a large refugee population from other crises, with individuals from one country of origin alone accounting for over 147,000 refugees, a figure greater than all other nationalities combined.
Behind these stark numbers lies a distinct demographic profile with significant implications for protection and solutions. The overall population of concern is heavily concentrated in the working-age cohort of 18-59 years, with females representing a slightly larger proportion than males. This demographic structure points to a pressing need for livelihood opportunities, vocational training, and self-reliance programs to foster dignity and reduce aid dependency. Furthermore, the higher proportion of adult women underscores the critical importance of targeted protection interventions, including the prevention of and response to sexual and gender-based violence and the promotion of women’s empowerment initiatives.
This rapid and large-scale influx places considerable strain on the protection environment and resources in Egypt, highlighting the enduring generosity of host communities while simultaneously signalling an urgent and growing gap between immense humanitarian needs and available funding.
Demographics
AI Insight: Treemap of Population of Concern types in Egypt, where the largest population group accounts for the vast majority of the total 877,000 individuals as of 2024., This treemap visualizes the breakdown of the 877,000 individuals considered populations of concern by UNHCR in Egypt as of 2024. The chart is composed of seven rectangles, each representing a different population category, with the size of the rectangle proportional to the number of people in that group.
The distribution is dominated by one single population group, which comprises 638,948 individuals, making up roughly 73% of the total. Other smaller categories are also present, including a specific count of 9,453 returned refugees. The statistical profile shows that while the largest group is over 600,000, the 75th percentile of the groups is 119,010, indicating the presence of at least one other moderately sized group.
A key feature of the data is that several categories have a population of zero, as reflected by a median value of zero across the groups. There are no returned IDPs reported in the dataset.
AI Insight: Population pyramid of UNHCR’s populations of concern in Egypt by age and gender, where the distribution is heavily concentrated in the 18-59 age group, with females comprising a slightly larger proportion of the total population than males., This population pyramid provides a demographic breakdown by age and gender for the 5,233,221 individuals of concern to UNHCR in Egypt as of 2024. The data boasts 100% gender disaggregation, allowing for a precise analysis.
Overall Structure: The pyramid’s shape is characterized by a significant bulge in the adult cohort, rather than a classic expansive pyramid with a wide base. This indicates that the majority of the population of concern are adults, not children.
Key Statistical Insights: - Age Distribution: The most prominent feature is the concentration of the population in the 18-59 age group. This single cohort accounts for the largest shares, with the maximum observed proportions being 30.2% for females and 24.4% for males. Cumulatively, this age group represents over half of the total population of concern. - Gender Distribution: There is a slight majority of females in the total population. The mean proportion across age groups is 10.5% for females compared to 9.5% for males. The most significant gender disparity is within the dominant 18-59 age bracket, where the proportion of females is substantially higher than that of males. - Youth and Elderly Population: The child (0-17) and elderly (60+) age groups are proportionally much smaller, with minimum cohort sizes as low as 3.0% for males and 3.3% for females.
Implications for UNHCR Operations: The demographic profile highlights a large adult population, signaling a high demand for livelihood opportunities, vocational training, and self-reliance programs. The pronounced gender imbalance among adults, with more females than males, underscores the critical need for targeted protection interventions, including SGBV prevention and response, as well as empowerment initiatives for women. While smaller, the child population still requires dedicated resources for education and child protection services.
Trends Over Time
AI Insight: Stacked column chart of population types in Egypt from 2019 to 2024, where the total population of concern has more than doubled, driven by a sharp increase in refugees and asylum-seekers, particularly from 2023 onwards., This stacked column chart details the composition of UNHCR’s population of concern in Egypt for each year from 2019 to 2024. The y-axis represents the number of people, and the x-axis represents the year. Each column is segmented by population type, including Refugees, Asylum-seekers, Others of concern, Stateless persons, and Returned refugees.
The most significant trend is the dramatic growth in the total population of concern, which increased from approximately 258,000 in 2019 to over 575,000 in 2024. The growth was relatively stable until 2022, after which a substantial surge occurred.
Key observations by population type: - Refugees (REF): This is the largest group and the main driver of the overall increase. The refugee population grew from around 245,000 in 2019 to over 412,000 in 2024, with the most significant jump happening between 2022 and 2024. - Asylum-seekers (ASY): This group saw the most dramatic relative increase, growing from a small number in the early years to becoming the second-largest population by 2024, numbering nearly 150,000. - Other groups: The numbers for ‘Others of concern’ and ‘Stateless persons’ remained relatively low and stable, each consistently numbering below 10,000 throughout the period. - Returned refugees (RRF): This population also remained small, fluctuating but not showing a significant trend. - Internally Displaced Persons (IDP): The data indicates zero IDPs recorded in Egypt for this timeframe.
In conclusion, the data highlights a rapidly escalating displacement situation affecting Egypt, primarily due to a major influx of refugees and asylum-seekers starting in 2023. This trend likely reflects the impact of new or intensified conflicts in the region.
AI Insight: Bar chart of population changes by group in Egypt from 2023 to 2024, where the Sudanese population increased by over 400,000, while the group of asylum-seekers from other nationalities saw a slight decrease., This bar chart illustrates the absolute and percentage changes in different population groups of concern to UNHCR in Egypt, comparing data from the beginning of 2023 to the beginning of 2024.
The vertical axis represents the change in the number of people, with a zero line indicating no change. Bars extending upwards show population increases, while bars extending downwards show decreases. Each bar corresponds to a specific population group.
Key statistical findings from the chart are: - Sudanese Population: This group saw the most significant change, with a dramatic increase of 406,704 individuals. This influx is the primary driver of the overall population change. - Syrian Refugees: This group increased by 3,618 people, representing a 2% rise from the previous year. - Asylum-seekers (other nationalities): This group experienced the largest decrease, with a reduction of 2,493 people, a 4% decline. - Refugees (other nationalities): A minor decrease of 14 people was recorded for this group. - Others of Concern: This population group remained unchanged.
Context: The substantial increase in the Sudanese population is a direct result of the conflict that erupted in Sudan in April 2023, which has led to a major displacement crisis. The changes in other population groups are comparatively minor and reflect more routine demographic shifts, such as new registrations, durable solutions, or case closures. Overall, the total population of concern in Egypt grew by 407,815 people, an 85% increase, almost entirely attributed to the arrival of Sudanese seeking safety.
AI Insight: Horizontal bar chart of the top 9 refugee countries of origin in Egypt for 2024, where the leading country of origin accounts for over 147,000 people, a number greater than all other origins combined., This horizontal bar chart ranks the top nine countries of origin for refugees residing in Egypt in 2024. The data shows a highly skewed distribution, dominated by a single country of origin.
Statistical analysis reveals that the top country accounts for 147,797 refugees. This figure is significantly higher than the median of 4,866 refugees and pulls the mean for the group up to 23,801. The large standard deviation of 44,983 further underscores the extreme variance in population sizes across the different origins. The number of refugees from the other countries ranges considerably, with the smallest group numbering just 59 people. The interquartile range indicates that 50% of the listed countries of origin have populations between 1,105 and 25,516.
This distribution strongly suggests that a single, large-scale displacement crisis is the primary driver of the refugee population in Egypt, while smaller, protracted situations contribute the remaining numbers.
Geography & Movements
Geography & Movements: Egypt at the Crossroads of Displacement
The geography of displacement across the Middle East and North Africa was profoundly reshaped by the outbreak of conflict in Sudan in April 2023, with Egypt emerging as an epicenter of significant demographic change. While historically a host to diverse displaced populations, the recent crisis has fundamentally altered the scale and composition of those seeking safety within its borders. The data reveals a dramatic influx that has made Egypt a critical sanctuary for one of the world’s largest new displacement situations.
An analysis of population trends shows an exponential increase in the number of Sudanese nationals seeking protection in Egypt from 2023 onwards. Prior to the conflict, Egypt hosted several sizable, relatively stable refugee and asylum-seeker communities from countries such as South Sudan, Eritrea, and Ethiopia. However, by 2024, the Sudanese population had become the overwhelmingly largest group, dwarfing all others. This concentration is starkly illustrated by the data: while the mean refugee population from the top origin countries is approximately 23,800, the median is just 4,866, underscoring how the influx from this single crisis now defines the refugee landscape in the country.
Simultaneously, Egypt is also a country of origin for refugees and others in need of international protection. The onward movement of these populations follows highly specific corridors. The global distribution is heavily skewed, with a small number of countries in Europe, North America, and the Middle East hosting the vast majority of the 76,000 forcibly displaced people originating from Egypt.
This pattern of concentration is a defining feature. The data shows that 75 per cent of all host countries shelter fewer than 200 individuals from Egypt each, placing a disproportionate responsibility on a few key asylum nations. One country alone hosts nearly 317,000 people, an outlier that highlights the specific pathways sought by those in search of protection. Behind these stark numbers lies a complex reality: Egypt’s dual role as both a primary sanctuary for those fleeing a major regional crisis and a point of origin for others seeking protection elsewhere underscores the interconnected and dynamic nature of global displacement.
AI Insight: Choropleth map of destination countries for refugees and other displaced people from Egypt, where the vast majority are hosted by a small number of countries in Europe, North America, and the Middle East., This world map visualizes the global distribution of populations of concern originating from Egypt, as recorded by UNHCR in 2024. The data covers 76 destination countries, which are color-coded to represent the number of hosted individuals, including refugees, asylum-seekers, and others in need of international protection.
The statistical analysis reveals a highly concentrated pattern of displacement. The number of individuals per host country ranges from a minimum of 5 to a maximum of 28,363. The distribution is heavily right-skewed, evidenced by the significant difference between the mean (1,010 people) and the median (28.5 people). This indicates that a few countries host a disproportionately large number of people from Egypt.
Further analysis of the quartiles shows that 75% of host countries have fewer than 198 individuals from Egypt. This reinforces that the global total is driven by a small number of primary destination countries, which would be represented on the map by areas of deep color saturation, while most other countries would appear lightly shaded.
Origin of Displaced Populations
AI Insight: A horizontal bar chart of the top 9 refugee countries of origin in Egypt for 2024, where the population from the leading country of origin significantly outnumbers all others., This horizontal bar chart details the refugee population in Egypt by the top nine countries of origin for the year 2024. The data represents 10 groups, including the top nine countries and an ‘Other’ category. The distribution of refugees is heavily skewed towards a single country of origin. The population counts range from a minimum of 59 to a maximum of 147,797. The statistical profile highlights this imbalance: the mean number of people per origin country is 23,801, which is substantially higher than the median of 4,866. This indicates that the vast majority of the refugee population comes from one country, while the populations from the other eight countries are significantly smaller.
AI Insight: Alluvial diagram of forcibly displaced populations in Egypt by country of origin from 2019 to 2025, where the Sudanese population shows a dramatic increase after 2023, becoming the overwhelmingly largest group., This alluvial diagram illustrates the changing composition of forcibly displaced populations in Egypt by country of origin for the period 2019 to 2025. The data, presented in thousands of individuals, tracks seven distinct origin groups, with significant populations from Sudan, South Sudan, Eritrea, and Ethiopia.
The key insight from the visualization is the profound demographic shift following the outbreak of conflict in Sudan in April 2023. Prior to this, the displaced population in Egypt was composed of several sizable groups with relatively stable numbers. However, the data shows an exponential increase in the Sudanese population from 2023 onwards.
Statistically, this event is highlighted by the extreme range in population values, from a minimum of 15,484 to a maximum of 737,393. The median value across all groups and years is 35,044, which underscores the magnitude of the recent Sudanese influx. By 2025, the flow representing the Sudanese population widens to dominate the chart, dwarfing the populations from all other countries of origin and fundamentally altering the landscape of forced displacement in Egypt.
Destination
AI Insight: Bar chart of the top 10 destination countries for forcibly displaced people from Egypt as of 2024, where one country hosts a significantly larger population than all others., This vertical bar chart illustrates the distribution of forcibly displaced populations originating from Egypt across the top 10 asylum countries as of 2024. The data reveals a highly skewed distribution, with one nation serving as the primary destination. The analysis covers 10 countries, with the number of displaced persons ranging from a minimum of 10,740 to a maximum of 316,782. The median number of displaced people hosted is 26,844. The substantial difference between the maximum value and the 75th percentile (58,168) highlights the outlier status of the top destination country. The average number of displaced people per country is approximately 64,962, but the large standard deviation of 92,655 underscores the significant concentration in this single primary host country, indicating specific migration corridors and a disproportionate responsibility for providing asylum.
Asylum System
Overwhelmed Asylum Systems in the Face of New Crises
The devastating impact of new and escalating conflicts on national asylum systems was starkly evident in 2024, with some host countries experiencing unprecedented surges in applications for international protection. The situation in Egypt serves as a critical case study, where the total number of asylum applications and decisions reached a peak of over 437,000, a dramatic increase from the relative stability of previous years.
The data reveals that this surge was overwhelmingly driven by those fleeing the conflict in Sudan. An analysis of over 316,000 Refugee Status Determination (RSD) decisions rendered in Egypt shows that the largest single flow of applicants was from Sudan, with the vast majority of these individuals being recognized as refugees at the first instance. This is reflected in the refugee recognition rate for Sudanese nationals, which stood at nearly 98 per cent, underscoring the clear need for international protection among this population. In contrast, recognition rates for other nationalities varied significantly, demonstrating that outcomes remain highly dependent on the specific conditions from which asylum-seekers have fled.
Behind these stark numbers lies a story of immense operational strain. The rate of new applications in Egypt significantly outpaced the capacity to process them, leading to a substantial and growing backlog of cases pending a first instance decision. This widening gap between arrivals and decisions places immense pressure on protection systems and extends the period of uncertainty for vulnerable individuals and families awaiting a resolution of their status. The complexity of global asylum flows is further illustrated by the fact that Egyptian nationals also sought protection abroad, with their own recognition rates varying from as low as 2 per cent to over 74 per cent, depending on the country in which they sought asylum. This highlights the significant disparities that persist across different national asylum systems worldwide.
AI Insight: Bar chart of asylum applications and decisions in Egypt from 2019 to 2024, where the total number of cases shows a dramatic spike in the most recent year., This bar chart displays the annual total of asylum applications and decisions in Egypt for the period 2019 through 2024. The data is aggregated by year and categorized into three stages of the asylum process. A detailed statistical analysis reveals a significant trend: while the number of cases was relatively stable in the initial years, with a median of 16,815 cases, there was an extraordinary surge towards the end of the period. The total number of cases ranges from a low of 2,509 to a peak of 437,229. The substantial difference between the mean (52,199) and the median (16,815), along with a very high standard deviation (100,307), confirms the extreme impact of this recent spike. This surge likely reflects a significant change in regional dynamics, such as new or escalating conflicts, leading to increased displacement. It is important to note, as stated in the chart’s subtitle, that these figures represent the number of applications, and a single individual may submit more than one application under certain circumstances.
AI Insight: An alluvial plot of refugee status determination decisions in Egypt by country of origin, decision level, and outcome, where the largest flow is for Sudanese applicants at the first instance level resulting in refugee status recognition., This alluvial plot visualizes the flow of 316,201 Refugee Status Determination (RSD) decisions recorded in Egypt in 2024. The chart displays the progression of cases through three stages, represented by vertical axes from left to right: Country of Origin, Decision Level, and Decision Outcome. The width of the bands flowing between the axes is proportional to the number of decisions.
Key Observations: - Country of Origin: The vast majority of decisions pertain to applicants from Sudan, which constitutes the largest single flow into the system. Other significant nationalities include Syria, South Sudan, Eritrea, and Ethiopia, though their volumes are considerably smaller. - Decision Level: The central axis clearly shows that almost all cases are processed at the ‘First Instance’ level. The flow of cases proceeding to the ‘Appeal’ level is minimal in comparison. - Decision Outcome: The primary outcome for decisions is ‘Recognized’, indicating that refugee status was granted. The second most common outcome is ‘Otherwise Closed’, which can include cases where the applicant withdrew or abandoned their claim. ‘Rejected’ decisions represent a smaller proportion of the total outcomes.
By tracing the largest band, the data indicates that the predominant pathway through the RSD process in Egypt is for a Sudanese national to have their case heard at the first instance and to be recognized as a refugee.
AI Insight: Area chart of cumulative asylum applications versus decisions in Egypt by year, where a significant and growing gap between applications and decisions indicates a substantial increase in the pending caseload and processing times as of 2024., This area chart illustrates the cumulative total of asylum applications filed versus first instance decisions made in Egypt for the period starting in 2020. The x-axis represents time in years, and the y-axis shows the cumulative count of cases.
The visualization highlights two key trends represented by two stacked areas: one for applications and a lower one for decisions. Both series show a steep upward trajectory, indicating a continuous influx of asylum applications and ongoing processing efforts. The total cumulative number of cases involved grows from approximately 25,000 to over 868,000 during the observed period.
The most critical insight is the widening gap between the ‘applications’ line and the ‘decisions’ line. This gap, visually represented by the upper area, signifies the growing backlog of cases pending a first instance decision. The divergence demonstrates that the rate of new applications has consistently outpaced the system’s capacity to issue decisions. This directly translates to an increase in the average processing time for asylum seekers, a key operational challenge for UNHCR in Egypt that impacts the well-being and legal certainty of persons of concern.
Recognition Rates
AI Insight: Bar chart of Refugee Recognition Rate by Country of Origin in Egypt for 2024, where rates show significant variation, ranging from under 1% to nearly 98%., This bar chart presents the Refugee Recognition Rates in Egypt for 2024, focusing on the top 10 countries of origin with the highest number of asylum decisions. The analysis reveals a stark contrast in outcomes for asylum seekers from different nationalities.
Statistically, the rates range dramatically from a minimum of 0.9% to a maximum of 97.9%. The average recognition rate across these ten nationalities is 42.3%, with a median rate of 38.0%. The interquartile range, which represents the middle 50% of the data, spans from 15.0% to 67.8%, highlighting significant variability even among the central group.
This data underscores that an applicant’s country of origin is a critical factor in the outcome of their asylum claim in Egypt. The wide range suggests that protection needs and recognition are highly dependent on the specific conditions and conflicts in the countries from which asylum seekers are fleeing.
AI Insight: Bar chart of Refugee Recognition Rates for Egyptian nationals in 2024 by country of asylum, where rates vary significantly, from a low of 2% to a high of 74% among the top 10 countries with the most decisions., This vertical bar chart displays the Refugee Recognition Rate for nationals from Egypt in 2024. The data is presented for the top 10 countries of asylum, which are ordered by the total number of asylum decisions made during the period, not by the recognition rate itself. Each bar represents a country of asylum, and its height indicates the percentage of positive refugee status decisions out of the total decisions made for Egyptian nationals.
The analysis of the underlying data for these 10 countries reveals a substantial disparity in outcomes for asylum seekers. Across these countries, a total of 159,250 decisions were made. The average refugee recognition rate is 20.1%, but the median is much lower at 8.8%, indicating that most of these high-volume asylum countries have recognition rates below the average, with a few countries having significantly higher rates.
The rates range dramatically from a minimum of 2.0% to a maximum of 74.1%. This wide variance underscores that the likelihood of an Egyptian national being granted refugee status in 2024 was highly dependent on the country in which they sought asylum. When considering other forms of protection (complementary protection), the average total recognition rate increases slightly to 21.9%.
Solutions
Solutions
While the search for durable solutions remains a global challenge, recent data and projections from Egypt signal a potential paradigm shift for refugees hosted in the country. Behind the stark numbers lies a long-standing reality: for years, the rate of new refugee arrivals and recognitions has far outpaced the availability of lasting solutions. The data reveals that between 2019 and 2023, while thousands of individuals were granted refugee status annually, the number finding a durable solution—be it resettlement to a third country, voluntary repatriation, or local integration—remained in the low hundreds. This widening gap placed increasing pressure on refugees, host communities, and national systems.
However, the trendlines indicate a significant turning point. A marked increase in solutions is anticipated for 2024, with planned departures and other solutions projected to surge to over 9,400 individuals. This momentum is set to accelerate exponentially into 2025, with a projected total of nearly 200,000 solutions. This figure, which includes over 49,000 solutions for forcibly displaced people across borders, is orders of magnitude greater than in any previous year. For the first time in recent history, planned solutions are set to outnumber new refugee recognitions by a factor of more than 25.
This dramatic upward trend suggests a landmark expansion of pathways to safety and stability, likely driven by strengthened partnerships and the scaling-up of large-scale resettlement and complementary pathway programmes. While these projections represent a beacon of hope, their realization will depend on sustained political will and commensurate financial and technical support from the international community. Successfully implementing these ambitious targets would not only provide life-changing opportunities for tens of thousands of refugees but also significantly alleviate the strain on Egypt as a major host country.
AI Insight: Column chart of durable solutions for forcibly displaced people in Egypt from 2019 to 2025, where the number of solutions increases exponentially, spiking from 2,363 in 2024 to over 49,000 in 2025., This column chart displays the trend in durable solutions for forcibly displaced people across borders in Egypt for the years 2019 through 2025. The y-axis represents the number of solutions, while the x-axis represents the year. The data reveals a dramatic and exponential increase in solutions over the period, particularly in the most recent years.
From 2019 to 2023, the number of solutions was relatively low and stable, starting at approximately 123 in 2019, dipping to 26 in 2020, and then gradually recovering to 210 by 2023.
A significant turning point occurs in 2024, where the number of solutions surges more than tenfold to 2,363. This growth becomes even more pronounced in 2025, with a projected figure of 49,252 solutions. This represents a more than 20-fold increase from the 2024 figure and is orders of magnitude greater than any previous year in the dataset. This sharp upward trend suggests a major shift, potentially due to new large-scale resettlement programs, changes in policy, or the resolution of specific displacement crises affecting populations in Egypt. The data for 2024 and especially 2025 may represent planned targets or projections rather than historical achievements.
