Azerbaijan: Country Report | 2024

AI Generated Analysis based on UNHCR Forced Displacement Statisitics.

Author

Beware of data limitations and potential hallucinations! Thanks for reporting any issues here – View all Reports

Executive Summary

Of course. Here is the ‘Key Trends’ executive summary.

TO: Executive Committee, Donors, Member States FROM: The High Commissioner SUBJECT: Key Trends in Forced Displacement: Azerbaijan 2024

A Landscape of Entrenched Displacement

The humanitarian situation in Azerbaijan is defined by one of the world’s most protracted and large-scale internal displacement crises. Our latest data reveals a population of concern totaling 662,000 people, a figure dominated by the stark reality that 99 per cent are Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs). This is not a new emergency but an enduring one; the number of IDPs has remained consistently above 650,000 for the past five years, with zero recorded returns during this period. This stagnation underscores a profound challenge in finding durable solutions and represents a generation of individuals, nearly half of whom are of working age, unable to fully rebuild their lives in safety and dignity.

A Dual Reality: Concentrated Burdens at Home and Abroad

Azerbaijan navigates a complex dual role as both a major country of origin for the displaced and a host nation. Internally, it bears the immense responsibility for its own displaced citizens. Externally, the burden of hosting those displaced from Azerbaijan is not widely shared; a staggering 99% of this population is hosted by a single nation. This profound concentration of responsibility in one state mirrors the patterns we see within Azerbaijan, where the country provides refuge to a population primarily from the Russian Federation. This highlights the need for tailored diplomacy and targeted support to the specific contexts bearing the greatest weight of displacement.

The Widening Chasm Between Protection and Solutions

While granting asylum is a life-saving act, it is increasingly becoming a pathway to prolonged uncertainty. National asylum systems are under severe strain, with processing times now averaging 314 days, delaying access to fundamental protections. More alarming is the widening gap between protection and durable solutions. In one recent year, a surge saw nearly 500 individuals recognized as refugees, yet only 13 solutions—such as resettlement or integration pathways—were made available. This is not an anomaly but a persistent trend, creating a growing population of recognized refugees left in limbo. This systemic failure underscores that without a renewed international commitment to expanding solutions and investing in host communities, protection will remain a temporary reprieve rather than a permanent answer.

Population Overview

Population Overview: Azerbaijan

The humanitarian landscape in Azerbaijan continues to be defined by a significant and long-standing population of concern, numbering 662,000 people by mid-2024. Behind this stark figure lies a reality dominated by a single, overriding challenge: protracted internal displacement. The data reveals that Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) constitute an overwhelming 99 per cent of this population. Their numbers have remained consistently above 650,000 between 2019 and 2024, highlighting a situation that has seen little change over the years.

The protracted nature of this displacement is further underscored by the complete absence of recorded IDP returns during this five-year period, signaling immense and persistent challenges in achieving durable solutions for the vast majority of those affected. In stark contrast, other populations of concern, including refugees, asylum-seekers, and stateless persons, represent a very small fraction of the total. Even within the refugee community of approximately 6,400 individuals, the population is largely homogenous, with over 75 per cent originating from a single country.

The demographic profile of the displaced and stateless population further illuminates the situation. A substantial concentration of individuals—nearly 50 per cent of both males and females—falls within the primary working-age bracket of 18-59 years, with a near-equal gender balance. This profile points to a population with significant potential for self-reliance, yet one that has faced prolonged barriers to integration and livelihood opportunities.

Recent trends from 2023 to 2024 indicate a relatively stable displacement picture, with only minor net changes across all population groups. While one group saw a decrease of just over 2,500 people, these fluctuations did not alter the fundamental composition of the population of concern. This stability, however, should not be mistaken for resolution; rather, it reinforces the entrenched nature of displacement in the country, where the needs of a large IDP community remain the paramount humanitarian priority.

Demographics

AI Insight: Treemap of the Population of Concern in Azerbaijan by type, where Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) constitute the vast majority of the 662,000 individuals., This treemap visualizes the breakdown of the 662,000 individuals considered populations of concern in Azerbaijan as of 2024. The data is distributed across seven distinct categories, with each category’s size represented by the area of its corresponding rectangle. The visualization clearly shows a highly skewed distribution. Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) are by far the largest group, numbering 655,212, which accounts for approximately 99% of the total population of concern. The remaining 1% is distributed among six much smaller categories: Refugees, Asylum-seekers, Others of concern, Stateless persons, Host community, and Returned IDPs. The immense size of the rectangle for IDPs compared to the others visually emphasizes that internal displacement is the most significant humanitarian issue in the country.

AI Insight: Population pyramid of age and gender for forcibly displaced and stateless populations in Azerbaijan, where the population is heavily concentrated in the 18-59 age group with a nearly equal gender split., This population pyramid displays the demographic breakdown by age and gender for 6,746,156 individuals of concern to UNHCR in Azerbaijan, as of 2024. The dataset, which includes refugees, asylum-seekers, internally displaced persons, stateless persons, and other populations of concern, has 100% gender disaggregation.

The overall structure of the pyramid is dominated by a large central bulge, indicating that the vast majority of the population is concentrated in the adult age group of 18-59 years. The cohorts for children (0-17) and the elderly (60+) are significantly smaller, forming a narrow base and top.

Statistically, the gender distribution is nearly balanced. The analysis shows a slight majority of females, but the difference is minimal. The key finding from the data is the pronounced age imbalance: one age group accounts for almost half of the total population for each gender (49.7% for females and 49.3% for males), which corresponds to the 18-59 age bracket. The remaining five age groups are proportionally very small. This demographic profile highlights a population structure heavily weighted towards working-age adults.

Geography & Movements

Geography and Movements: Displacement in and from Azerbaijan

The geography of displacement connected to Azerbaijan is characterized by profound concentration, a pattern that holds true for populations displaced both within and beyond its borders. The data reveals that forced displacement inside Azerbaijan is predominantly an internal issue, with over 655,000 of its own nationals consistently comprising the vast majority of the displaced population between 2019 and 2025. While this figure has remained largely stable, it serves as a critical backdrop to understanding cross-border movements.

This pattern of concentration is mirrored in the destinations of those displaced from the country. An analysis of 40 host countries shows a highly skewed distribution, with a single nation hosting an overwhelming majority of 655,212 individuals. Behind these stark numbers, the median number of displaced people from Azerbaijan per host country is just 45, indicating that most receiving states host only very small populations. This immense disparity underscores the significant responsibility placed on the primary receiving state, where protection and integration needs are highly centralized.

While grappling with its own large internally displaced population, Azerbaijan also serves as a host country for refugees and asylum-seekers. Here too, the data shows a concentrated profile. As of 2024, the refugee population is primarily from the Russian Federation, which accounts for nearly 5,000 individuals. This is significantly higher than the numbers from other origins, such as Afghanistan and Pakistan, which constitute much smaller populations.

Taken together, these movements highlight a dual reality: a protracted and large-scale internal displacement situation alongside a highly concentrated external one. This necessitates carefully tailored diplomatic engagement and resource allocation, focusing humanitarian responses and solutions on the specific contexts where the vast majority of protection needs are located.

AI Insight: Choropleth map of destination countries for displaced persons from Azerbaijan, where the distribution is highly skewed, with a vast majority of individuals hosted in a single country., This world map visualizes the distribution of refugees, asylum-seekers, and other people of concern originating from Azerbaijan across various destination countries as of 2024.

The analysis is based on data for 40 host countries. The distribution of this population is extremely concentrated. The mean number of individuals per host country is 20,300, but this average is significantly influenced by a major outlier. The median value is a much lower 44.5, indicating that half of the host countries have fewer than 45 individuals. The values range from a minimum of 5 to a maximum of 655,212 in a single destination.

The statistical quartiles further clarify this pattern: 75% of the countries with data host 307 or fewer people from Azerbaijan. This demonstrates a pattern where displaced populations from Azerbaijan are widely dispersed in small numbers, with an exceptionally high concentration in one primary destination country.

Origin of Displaced Populations

AI Insight: Bar chart of refugees in Azerbaijan by country of origin in 2024, where the Russian Federation accounts for the vast majority of the refugee population., This horizontal bar chart shows the number of refugees in Azerbaijan from the top nine countries of origin, plus an ‘Other’ category, for the year 2024. The data reveals a highly skewed distribution. The primary country of origin is the Russian Federation, with 4,906 refugees, which constitutes a significant majority of the total. The numbers from other countries are substantially lower. According to the statistical profile, the median number of refugees per country of origin is 39.5, and 75% of the origin countries have 220 or fewer refugees. The full list of origins in descending order of population size is: Russian Federation (4,906), Afghanistan, Pakistan, Other, Iran, Ukraine, Iraq, Yemen, Uzbekistan, and Syria (5).

AI Insight: Alluvial diagram of the forcibly displaced population in Azerbaijan by country of origin from 2019 to 2025, where the vast majority are Azerbaijani nationals, with their numbers remaining stable and high compared to a very small but slightly increasing population from other origins., This alluvial diagram visualizes the composition of the forcibly displaced population within Azerbaijan from 2019 to 2025, breaking it down into two origin groups: nationals of Azerbaijan and individuals from other countries.

The most striking insight from the data is the immense disparity between these two groups. The population of forcibly displaced Azerbaijani nationals is overwhelmingly dominant, consistently numbering over 655,000 people throughout the period. The data indicates this group’s size ranges from a high of approximately 658,793 to a low of 655,119, showing a slight decrease over the years.

In contrast, the number of forcibly displaced people from other origins is significantly smaller, representing a tiny fraction of the total. This group shows a slight growth trend, with figures increasing from a low of 4,875 to a high of approximately 6,551 over the same period.

Overall, the visualization underscores that forced displacement in Azerbaijan is predominantly an internal issue concerning its own nationals. The total displaced population remains relatively stable, with minor fluctuations driven by the slight decrease in displaced Azerbaijanis and a slight increase in those from other origins.

Destination

AI Insight: Column chart of the top destination countries for people displaced from Azerbaijan, where one country hosts the vast majority, over 20.4 million people., This column chart presents the top 10 destination countries for forcibly displaced populations originating from Azerbaijan as of 2024. The data shows a highly skewed distribution, indicating a significant concentration of displaced individuals in a single host nation. The total number of displaced people across these countries ranges from a minimum of 9,086 to a maximum of 20,403,816. The profound effect of this top destination is evident in the statistical summary: the mean number of displaced people is approximately 2.5 million, whereas the median is a much lower 60,824. This discrepancy highlights that the top country hosts a population that is orders of magnitude larger than the others. Specifically, 75% of the listed destination countries host fewer than 165,420 people, emphasizing the outlier status of the primary destination. From a humanitarian perspective, this concentration is critical for planning, resource allocation, and diplomatic engagement, as the needs of this displaced population are predominantly centered within one country’s borders.

Asylum System

Strains on National Asylum Systems

National asylum systems continue to face immense pressure from new and protracted crises, a trend starkly illustrated by the situation in Azerbaijan. The data reveals a growing gap between new applications and the capacity to adjudicate them, resulting in a substantial backlog. By 2024, the cumulative number of asylum applications had significantly outpaced the number of first-instance decisions rendered, extending the average processing time to 314 days. This trend signifies a growing strain on national authorities, delaying access to protection for those in need.

Behind these stark numbers lies a complex and fluctuating system. The annual volume of applications and decisions has shown substantial variability since 2019, making resource planning a significant challenge. In 2024 alone, the Refugee Status Determination (RSD) process navigated over 20,900 decisions through its various first-instance and appeal stages, highlighting the sheer scale of the procedural workload.

Furthermore, protection outcomes for those seeking asylum in the country varied significantly depending on their country of origin. Refugee recognition rates for the top 10 nationalities ranged from a low of 2.9 per cent to a high of 58.8 per cent, underscoring the diverse protection needs and circumstances of different asylum-seeker populations.

This divergence in recognition is not unique to Azerbaijan’s system. A similar disparity is evident in the treatment of Azerbaijani nationals seeking asylum abroad. Across the top 10 host countries, recognition rates for asylum seekers from Azerbaijan in 2024 spanned from as low as 1.5 per cent to nearly 70 per cent. This wide variance in outcomes for the same nationality across different asylum systems points to a persistent lack of consistency in the global protection regime, leaving the fate of many asylum seekers dependent on where they are able to seek safety.

AI Insight: Bar chart of total asylum applications and decisions in Azerbaijan from 2019 to 2024, where the number of cases shows significant annual fluctuation., This bar chart provides a quantitative overview of asylum applications and decisions in Azerbaijan between 2019 and 2024. The data is aggregated by year and categorized into three distinct asylum stages. The vertical axis represents the total count of cases. A statistical summary reveals that the number of cases in any given category per year ranges from 0 to a maximum of 733. The average count across all data points is 266, but a high standard deviation of 244 indicates substantial variability from year to year and between asylum stages. It is important to note that the figures represent the number of procedures, not unique individuals, as a single person may have multiple applications. This visualization helps in understanding the workload and trends in the asylum process managed by Azerbaijani authorities over this period.

AI Insight: Parallel sets plot of Refugee Status Determination (RSD) outcomes by decision stage, where the progression of 20,919 asylum cases is tracked through the legal process in Azerbaijan for 2024., This parallel sets plot provides a detailed visualization of the Refugee Status Determination (RSD) process in Azerbaijan for 2024, encompassing a total of 20,919 decisions. The chart illustrates the flow of asylum cases through various stages of the legal process, such as first instance and appeal levels.

Each vertical axis represents a distinct stage in the decision-making process, with categories on the axis detailing the specific outcomes (e.g., ‘Refugee Status Granted’, ‘Rejected’, ‘Otherwise Closed’). The colored bands, or flows, that connect these stages represent the volume of individuals moving from one outcome to the next. The width of each flow is directly proportional to the number of cases it represents.

This visualization allows for an in-depth analysis of the asylum system’s dynamics, highlighting key trends such as the primary outcomes at the first instance, the rate at which negative decisions are appealed, and the final status of cases after all legal avenues have been pursued. The data indicates a highly varied distribution in the size of these flows, with some pathways being significantly more common than others.

AI Insight: Area chart of cumulative asylum applications versus decisions in Azerbaijan from 2020 to 2026, where the widening gap between the two lines indicates a growing backlog and an increase in processing time to 314 days by 2024., This area chart presents a comparative analysis of cumulative asylum applications and cumulative first-instance decisions in Azerbaijan for the period 2020 to 2026. The vertical y-axis represents the cumulative total number of cases, while the horizontal x-axis represents the years.

Two distinct areas are plotted: the upper line represents the total cumulative applications received, and the lower line represents the total cumulative decisions made. The shaded area between these two lines visually represents the ‘gap’ or the backlog of pending cases.

Key observations from the data show a consistent upward trend for both applications and decisions. However, the rate of new applications outpaces the rate of decisions, causing the gap between the two lines to progressively widen over the years. This trend signifies a growing strain on the asylum processing system. A specific annotation for the year 2024 highlights that the backlog corresponds to an average processing time of 314 days from registration to a first-instance decision. The data projects a continued increase in both cumulative applications and decisions through 2026, suggesting the processing backlog will persist or worsen without intervention.

Recognition Rates

AI Insight: Bar chart of Refugee Recognition Rates by country of origin in Azerbaijan for 2024, where rates vary significantly from a low of 2.9% to a high of 58.8%., This bar chart displays the Refugee Recognition Rate in Azerbaijan during 2024 for the top 10 countries of origin, ranked by the total number of asylum decisions made.

Statistical Analysis: The data covers 10 distinct countries of origin. The primary variable, the Refugee Recognition Rate, shows considerable variance across these nationalities. The average recognition rate is 24.6%, with a median of 25.1%. The rates are widely dispersed, with the lowest recognition rate at 2.85% and the highest at 58.8%. The middle 50% of the countries have recognition rates falling between 11.8% and 29.9%.

Context: The chart is ordered by the total volume of decisions, not by the recognition rate itself. This means the country with the most applicants does not necessarily have the highest or lowest rate. The ‘Total Recognition Rate’, which includes complementary protection, is only slightly higher than the ‘Refugee Recognition Rate’ (mean of 25.2% vs. 24.6%), indicating that complementary protection is granted infrequently for these specific cohorts. The wide range in outcomes suggests that the protection needs and circumstances of asylum seekers vary substantially depending on their country of origin.

AI Insight: Bar chart of the 2024 Refugee Recognition Rate for nationals from Azerbaijan across the top 10 asylum countries, where the rate varies significantly from as low as 1.5% to as high as 69.8%., This bar chart displays the 2024 refugee recognition rates for asylum seekers from Azerbaijan in the top 10 countries of asylum, ranked by the total number of decisions made. The analysis is based on data for 10 countries, which collectively made 121,680 decisions regarding Azerbaijani nationals.

The primary metric, the Refugee Recognition Rate, shows substantial variation across these countries. The rates range from a minimum of 1.53% to a maximum of 69.8%. The average recognition rate is 19.9%, while the median is lower at 14.2%, indicating that half of the countries have a recognition rate below this value. This suggests that a few countries with higher rates are pulling the average up.

The volume of applications processed also differs greatly, with the total decisions per country ranging from 1,516 to 54,644. The chart’s ordering by total decisions means there is no visual correlation between the volume of cases and the recognition rate. Overall, of the total decisions, 13,220 resulted in refugee status, and an additional 4,860 received complementary protection, leading to an average Total Recognition Rate (including all forms of protection) of 24%.

Solutions

The Widening Gap Between Protection and Solutions

The ultimate goal for any forcibly displaced person is a durable solution that ends their displacement and allows them to rebuild their lives in safety and dignity. However, the path from receiving protection to achieving such a solution is increasingly fraught with challenges, as highlighted by recent trends. Behind the global figures lies a persistent and growing gap between the number of people in need of solutions and the opportunities available to them.

The data reveals a stark illustration of this challenge in Azerbaijan between 2019 and 2024. A dramatic surge in refugee recognitions in 2020 saw 498 individuals granted international protection, a more than tenfold increase from the previous year. Yet, this critical step was not matched by a corresponding increase in durable solutions. In that same year, only 13 such solutions were available, creating an immediate and significant deficit that left the vast majority of newly recognized refugees in a state of prolonged uncertainty.

This disparity was not an isolated event but the most acute point in a sustained trend. While the number of recognitions moderated in subsequent years, the number of available solutions remained consistently low, fluctuating between just 6 and 32 annually. Even as solutions for this population reached a six-year high of 32 in 2021, this constituted a fraction of the cumulative need generated by new arrivals. Concurrently, the landscape of solutions for those displaced from Azerbaijan also demonstrated significant volatility, peaking in 2021 before contracting to its lowest point by early 2024.

This widening chasm between protection and long-term solutions underscores a critical systemic issue. While granting refugee status is a life-saving act, it must be the beginning of a journey, not the end. The growing population of recognized refugees without access to voluntary repatriation, local integration, or resettlement faces an uncertain future. Bridging this solutions gap requires renewed international commitment, increased investment in host communities, and the expansion of political and financial support to create pathways for refugees to not only survive, but thrive.

AI Insight: Stacked column chart of durable solutions for forcibly displaced people from Azerbaijan from 2019 to 2024, where the highest number of solutions was recorded in 2021., This stacked column chart displays the annual trends in durable solutions for people forcibly displaced across borders from Azerbaijan, covering the period from 2019 to 2024. The data shows significant fluctuation over these six years.

The number of solutions saw a dramatic peak in 2021, which recorded a mean value of 8 solutions across different categories and a maximum of 22 in a single category. This is the highest point in the dataset.

In other years, the numbers were considerably lower. The period began in 2019 with a mean of 2.5 solutions. This was followed by a slight increase in 2020 to a mean of 3.25. After the 2021 peak, the number of solutions decreased to a mean of 3.5 in 2022 and then saw a partial recovery to 5.25 in 2023. The most recent data for 2024 shows the lowest activity in the period, with a mean of just 1.5 solutions. The variability within each year highlights the different scales of various solution types.

AI Insight: Line chart with a shaded area comparing refugee recognitions and available solutions in Azerbaijan from 2019 to 2024, where the number of recognitions consistently and significantly outpaced the number of solutions, with a notable peak in 2020., This time-series visualization presents a comparative analysis of new refugee recognitions against available durable solutions in Azerbaijan from 2019 to 2024.

Statistical Analysis: The number of refugee recognitions experienced a dramatic surge in 2020, peaking at 498 individuals, a more than tenfold increase from 49 in 2019. Following this peak, recognitions decreased to 193 in 2021 and then dropped to low double-digits, with 10 in 2022 and 31 in 2023. As of 2024, the number of recognitions is zero.

In contrast, the number of available solutions remained consistently low throughout the entire period. The figures fluctuated between a low of 6 in 2024 and a high of 32 in 2021. The yearly data for solutions is as follows: 10 (2019), 13 (2020), 32 (2021), 14 (2022), 21 (2023), and 6 (2024).

Key Insight: The primary insight is the substantial and persistent gap between the number of individuals granted protection and the durable solutions available to them. This disparity is visually emphasized by the shaded area between the two trend lines. The gap was most acute in 2020, when there was a deficit of 485 solutions (498 recognitions vs. 13 solutions). This trend indicates a growing cumulative need for durable solutions among the refugee population in Azerbaijan.

Definitions: a. Refugee recognitions: Positive decisions on individual asylum applications, granting refugee status. b. Solutions: Durable solutions for refugees, which typically include voluntary repatriation, resettlement to a third country, or local integration.