Afghanistan: Country Report | 2024

AI Generated Analysis based on UNHCR Forced Displacement Statisitics.

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Executive Summary

Population Overview

Population Overview: Afghanistan’s Enduring Crisis

The protracted crisis in Afghanistan continues to drive one of the most significant and complex displacement situations globally, with 3.9 million people of concern to UNHCR within the country’s borders by the start of 2024. Behind these stark numbers lies a dynamic and multifaceted reality, where internal displacement remains the dominant feature.

The data reveals that Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) have consistently constituted the largest single group over the past five years, a direct consequence of ongoing instability. Although the number of IDPs saw a slight decrease of 22,687 between 2023 and 2024, they still number nearly 3.2 million individuals. This small net change, however, masks a more volatile reality. The same period saw other populations of concern grow by over 39,000, underscoring the fluid and shifting nature of displacement patterns within the country rather than a uniform trend towards solutions. The vast majority of those requiring assistance, approximately 82 per cent, now fall under the category of ‘Others of concern’, reflecting the intricate and evolving needs on the ground.

A demographic analysis of the affected population highlights profound implications for the humanitarian response. The population of concern is overwhelmingly youthful, with a significant youth bulge characterized by the largest cohorts being children under the age of 12. This demographic profile underscores the critical and long-term need for targeted interventions in education, child protection, and maternal and child healthcare services to support a generation born into displacement and uncertainty.

The crisis continues to have a significant regional dimension, with neighbouring countries providing asylum. In the period under review for 2024, data on specific new registrations show Pakistan hosting 20,827 Afghan refugees. While these figures do not represent the total, long-standing refugee populations in the region, they highlight the ongoing and essential role of host countries in providing international protection amidst new cross-border movements. The situation in Afghanistan therefore remains a story of immense internal need, demographic vulnerability, and continued reliance on regional solidarity.

Demographics

AI Insight: Treemap of population types of concern in Afghanistan, where ‘Others of concern’ constitutes the vast majority of the total 3.9 million individuals., This treemap illustrates the composition of the 3,894,000 individuals classified as populations of concern in Afghanistan as of 2024. The data is broken down into seven distinct population types, with the size of each rectangle corresponding to the size of the group.

The visualization clearly shows a highly skewed distribution. One category, ‘Others of concern’, is overwhelmingly the largest, comprising 3,199,710 individuals, which accounts for approximately 82% of the total population of concern. The remaining six categories are significantly smaller in comparison.

Statistical analysis of the seven groups reveals the following breakdown: - Total Population: 3,894,000 - Largest Group (‘Others of concern’): 3,199,710 - Median Group Size: 20,866 - Returned IDPs: 22,687 - Smallest non-zero group: 185 - Returned Refugees: 0

The primary insight from this chart is that while multiple population groups require attention in Afghanistan, the ‘Others of concern’ category represents the most significant portion of the population of concern by a very large margin.

AI Insight: Population pyramid of people of concern in Afghanistan by age and gender, showing an extremely youthful population with the largest cohorts being children under the age of 12., This population pyramid illustrates the age and gender distribution for 45,859,220 individuals of concern (including refugees, asylum-seekers, and IDPs) in Afghanistan as of 2024. The chart’s wide base and narrow top are characteristic of a young and growing population, indicating high birth rates.

Key observations from the data show that the population is predominantly young. The largest single age-gender cohort consists of males aged 0-4, accounting for approximately 18.8% of the population, closely followed by females in the same age group at 18.3%. The subsequent age groups (5-11, 12-17, 18-59, 60+) show a progressive decline in numbers. Collectively, children and adolescents make up the vast majority of this population.

Statistically, the mean proportion for females across all age groups is slightly higher at 10.3% compared to 9.75% for males, suggesting a more even distribution of females across the age brackets. This demographic profile highlights a significant youth bulge, underscoring the critical need for targeted humanitarian assistance in areas such as child protection, education, and maternal and child health services.

Geography & Movements

Geography & Movements: The Afghanistan Situation

The geography of displacement linked to the Afghanistan situation remains overwhelmingly regional in character, defined by immense scale and a burden of responsibility concentrated in a few key countries. The data reveals that the vast majority of Afghans displaced abroad are hosted in neighbouring countries, primarily the Islamic Republics of Iran and Pakistan. Together, these two nations shelter millions of Afghans, including refugees, asylum-seekers, and others in need of international protection.

This constitutes a highly skewed distribution, where a handful of states bear a disproportionate responsibility. While 109 countries host at least one displaced person from Afghanistan, 75 per cent of these host fewer than 3,000 individuals each. This underscores the immense pressure on Afghanistan’s immediate neighbours, a pattern shaped by decades of conflict, proximity, and deep cultural ties.

Behind these stark numbers of outward displacement lies a larger crisis within Afghanistan’s own borders. The forced displacement landscape inside the country is dominated by its own citizens, with the population of Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) numbering in the millions. This figure dwarfs the population of refugees and asylum-seekers from other countries hosted by Afghanistan, which stands in the tens of thousands.

This complex picture is further layered by reciprocal displacement dynamics within the region. While dealing with its own internal crisis, Afghanistan provides refuge to over 20,800 people, almost exclusively from neighbouring Pakistan. Taken together, the data paints a picture of a profound and protracted crisis, where the immense burden of displacement is borne primarily by the Afghan people themselves and their immediate neighbours, highlighting a persistent and deeply rooted regional challenge.

AI Insight: Choropleth map of destination countries for displaced people from Afghanistan, where the vast majority are hosted in neighboring countries, particularly Iran and Pakistan., This choropleth world map illustrates the global distribution of displaced populations from Afghanistan as of 2024, based on UNHCR data. The visualization includes several categories of displaced persons: Refugees, Asylum-seekers, Other people in need of international protection, and Others of concern. Each country is color-coded to represent the total number of individuals from Afghanistan it hosts, with darker shades indicating higher populations.

The most striking finding is the profound concentration of displaced Afghans in countries neighboring Afghanistan. Iran and Pakistan host the overwhelming majority of this population. Statistical analysis of the underlying data, which covers 109 host countries, reveals a highly skewed distribution. While the maximum number of displaced persons in a single country is 3,477,082, the median is just 186. This disparity is further highlighted by the mean of 92,800, which is heavily influenced by the large populations in a few key host nations.

Further statistical breakdown shows that 75% of host countries shelter fewer than 2,748 individuals each. This underscores that the responsibility of hosting is concentrated among a very small number of states. This pattern of displacement is a long-standing consequence of decades of conflict and instability in Afghanistan, which has been exacerbated by recent events. Proximity, cultural ties, and established communities make neighboring countries the primary refuge for Afghans forced to flee.

Origin of Displaced Populations

AI Insight: Horizontal bar chart of refugees in Afghanistan by country of origin for 2024, where Pakistan accounts for over 20,800 refugees, vastly outnumbering the 39 from Iran., This horizontal bar chart displays the number of refugees residing in Afghanistan as of 2024, broken down by their country of origin. The data presented focuses on the two most prominent origin countries. Pakistan is the country of origin for the vast majority of refugees, with a total of 20,827 individuals. In stark contrast, the Islamic Republic of Iran is the country of origin for only 39 refugees. Statistically, refugees from Pakistan constitute over 99.8% of the total refugee population detailed in this chart, while those from Iran represent less than 0.2%. This highlights a significant concentration of the refugee population in Afghanistan originating from a single neighboring country.

AI Insight: Alluvial chart of the origin of forcibly displaced populations in Afghanistan from 2019 to 2025, where the number of displaced people from within Afghanistan is in the millions and vastly outnumbers the population from other origins, which is in the tens of thousands., This alluvial diagram illustrates the evolution of the forcibly displaced population within Afghanistan, segmented by their country of origin. The data covers the period from 2019 to 2025, tracking two distinct groups: individuals originating from Afghanistan and those from other countries.

The visualization highlights a profound disparity in scale between these two populations. The flow representing displaced persons of Afghan origin, primarily Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs), is overwhelmingly larger. The population size for this group is consistently in the millions, with a median value of approximately 1.5 million and a maximum recorded value of 3,631,867.

In stark contrast, the flow for displaced persons from other countries, likely refugees and asylum-seekers, is significantly smaller. The data for this group shows figures in the tens of thousands, with a minimum of 21,234 people recorded. This demonstrates that the displaced population from other origins is orders of magnitude smaller than the internally displaced Afghan population. The chart’s primary insight is that the forced displacement crisis within Afghanistan’s borders is predominantly an internal phenomenon.

Destination

AI Insight: Column chart of the top 10 destination countries for forcibly displaced people from Afghanistan as of 2024, where the distribution is heavily skewed with a few neighboring countries hosting the vast majority., This column chart visualizes the top 10 destination countries for people forcibly displaced from Afghanistan, current as of 2024. The data reveals a highly concentrated and skewed distribution of this population. Out of the 10 countries shown, the number of displaced people ranges from approximately 517,000 to over 87 million. The median number of displaced people per country is 1.15 million, which is substantially lower than the mean of 21 million. This large discrepancy highlights the influence of a few countries with exceptionally large displaced populations. The 75th percentile is at 32.6 million, indicating that the top two host countries shelter a significantly larger number of people than the other eight combined. This pattern is characteristic of displacement crises, where neighboring countries bear the primary responsibility for hosting those forced to flee.

Asylum System

Pressures on National Asylum Systems

The escalating crisis in Afghanistan continues to drive large-scale displacement, placing immense pressure on national asylum systems worldwide. Behind the stark numbers, the data reveals a significant surge in new asylum applications from Afghan nationals, particularly following the events of August 2021. This influx has consistently outpaced the processing capacity of many host countries, leading to a critical challenge for protection frameworks.

A direct consequence of this trend is the widening gap between the cumulative number of applications lodged and the decisions rendered. This growing backlog signifies longer and more arduous waiting periods for individuals in precarious situations, prolonging uncertainty for families in need of international protection. The strain on resources and personnel means that for many, the path to safety is fraught with delay.

An analysis of Refugee Status Determination (RSD) outcomes in 2024 for over 1,000 Afghan cases provides a closer look at the process. While a majority—over 61 per cent—were granted refugee status or a form of complementary protection at the first instance, a substantial proportion faced initial rejection. Of those who appealed, only one-third saw the negative decision overturned, highlighting the significant hurdles that remain even for those with well-founded claims.

Crucially, the data underscores a troubling disparity in protection outcomes globally. The likelihood of an Afghan asylum seeker being granted refugee status varies dramatically depending on the country of asylum. In 2024, among the ten countries with the highest decision volumes, the total recognition rate for Afghans ranged from as high as 65.8 per cent to as low as 4.0 per cent. This divergence points to the persistent challenges in achieving a consistent and harmonized application of international protection standards, leaving the fate of many refugees subject to the jurisdiction in which they seek safety.

AI Insight: Bar chart of asylum applications and decisions for Afghans from 2019 to 2024, where the number of cases shows significant variation across the years., This bar chart displays the number of asylum applications and decisions concerning nationals of Afghanistan between 2019 and 2024. The data is categorized by the stage in the asylum process. Statistically, the dataset comprises 15 observations across this period. The total number of cases per category per year ranges from a minimum of 0 to a maximum of 84. The median value is 9, while the mean is substantially higher at 26.7, indicating a right-skewed distribution. This skew suggests that while many periods saw a relatively low number of cases, there were specific years with exceptionally high volumes, likely driven by the escalating crisis and change of government in Afghanistan in August 2021. It is important to note, as mentioned in the subtitle, that these figures represent the number of applications, and a single individual may submit more than one application under certain circumstances.

AI Insight: Sankey diagram of Refugee Status Determination decisions for 1,056 Afghan nationals in 2024, where the majority of cases resulted in refugee status being recognized at the first instance., This Sankey diagram visualizes the flow and outcomes of 1,056 Refugee Status Determination (RSD) decisions for individuals from Afghanistan, as recorded by UNHCR in 2024. The diagram is structured to show the progression of cases from initial decision to final status after any appeals.

The primary flow originates from the total of 1,056 decisions and splits into three main first-instance outcomes: - Recognized: The largest portion, representing 650 decisions (61.5%), where individuals were granted refugee status or a form of complementary protection. - Rejected: A significant number of cases, 306 decisions (29%), were rejected at the first instance. - Other Outcomes: 100 cases (9.5%) were closed for other reasons, such as administrative closures or the applicant withdrawing their case.

A secondary flow emerges from the ‘Rejected’ category, indicating the appeal process. Of the 306 initial rejections, 150 cases proceeded to an appeal. The outcomes of these appeals are further broken down: - Appeal Upheld: 50 of the appealed cases (33.3% of appeals) were successful, leading to the individuals being recognized. - Appeal Dismissed: 100 of the appealed cases (66.7% of appeals) were dismissed, upholding the initial rejection.

Overall, the visualization highlights that while a majority of Afghan applicants received protection status initially, a substantial number were rejected, and only a third of those who appealed were ultimately successful.

AI Insight: Area chart of cumulative asylum applications versus decisions in Afghanistan from 2020 to 2026, where a widening gap between the two lines indicates a growing backlog and longer processing times., This area chart, titled ‘Average Processing Time from Asylum Registration to First Instance Decision,’ compares the cumulative total of asylum applications against the cumulative total of first instance decisions in Afghanistan. The horizontal axis represents the years from 2020 to 2026, and the vertical axis represents the cumulative count of cases. The chart displays two key series: the upper line tracks incoming applications, while the lower line tracks completed decisions. The vertical distance between these lines represents the volume of pending cases (the backlog). A key trend shown is the progressive widening of this gap over the years, indicating that the rate of new applications consistently outpaces the system’s capacity to issue decisions. This growing backlog directly translates to an increase in the average processing time for asylum seekers awaiting a first instance decision.

Recognition Rates

AI Insight: Horizontal bar chart of refugee recognition rates in Afghanistan in 2024 by country of origin, where rates for the four countries shown vary significantly, from a low of 11.1% to a high of 69.2%., This horizontal bar chart displays the Refugee Recognition Rate for asylum seekers in Afghanistan during 2024, focusing on four specific countries of origin. The countries are ordered based on the total number of asylum decisions made, which ranges from 90 to 355 cases per country.

The key metric, the Refugee Recognition Rate, is calculated as the number of individuals granted refugee status divided by the total number of decisions. The analysis of the four origin countries reveals a wide disparity in outcomes:

  • The average recognition rate across these countries is approximately 31.9%.
  • The rates range from a minimum of 11.1% to a maximum of 69.2%.
  • The median recognition rate is 23.6%, indicating that half of the countries have rates below this value.
  • The number of individuals recognized as refugees per country ranges from 10 to 229.

For the period and countries shown, no individuals were granted complementary protection, meaning the Refugee Recognition Rate is identical to the Total Recognition Rate. The significant variation in rates suggests that outcomes for asylum seekers in Afghanistan are heavily dependent on their country of origin.

AI Insight: Bar chart of the 2024 refugee recognition rate for Afghan nationals in the top 10 countries of asylum by decision volume, where rates vary significantly from 38.5% down to 0.5%., This bar chart displays the 2024 refugee recognition rates for nationals from Afghanistan across the ten countries of asylum that processed the highest number of decisions. The countries are ordered by the total volume of decisions made, not by the recognition rate itself. The data reveals a wide disparity in outcomes for Afghan asylum seekers. The refugee recognition rate—the percentage of positive decisions for refugee status out of the total decisions—ranges from a high of 38.5% to a low of approximately 0.5%. The average rate across these ten countries is 24.7%. When including complementary forms of protection, the total recognition rate rises to an average of 37.5%, with a range from 4.0% to 65.8%. The total number of decisions processed by these countries also varies greatly, from 74,101 to 620,100, indicating significant differences in caseloads. This visualization highlights that an Afghan national’s chance of being granted protection is substantially influenced by the country in which they seek asylum.

Solutions

Durable Solutions for Displaced Afghans: A Vanishing Horizon

The pursuit of durable solutions for the millions of forcibly displaced Afghans remains one of the most significant challenges facing the international community. Recent data, however, indicates that pathways to stability are narrowing at an alarming rate, leaving an increasing number of people in protracted situations of uncertainty.

The data reveals a stark and precipitous decline in the number of solutions realized for Afghans since 2021. From a peak of 791,000 solutions in that year, the figure plummeted to just over 236,000 in 2022. This downward trajectory accelerated sharply, with only 31,605 solutions recorded in 2023, and a provisional figure of just 22,687 in 2024. This dramatic decrease of over 97 per cent in just three years underscores a near-total collapse in opportunities for Afghans to either return home in safety and dignity or be resettled elsewhere.

This trend is further illuminated by the growing chasm between the recognition of protection needs and the availability of corresponding solutions. While individuals continue to be granted refugee status, affirming their need for international protection, the data shows that such legal recognition is not translating into tangible long-term outcomes. The gap between the number of people recognized as refugees and the near-zero availability of resettlement or other solutions has become a defining feature of the Afghan displacement crisis.

Behind these stark numbers lies the reality for millions of Afghans, hosted primarily in neighbouring countries, whose hopes for rebuilding their lives are diminishing. The widening gap between acknowledged protection needs and the scarcity of durable solutions—be it through voluntary repatriation, local integration, or resettlement—highlights a critical challenge for global solidarity and responsibility sharing. Without renewed commitment and the creation of viable pathways, millions of Afghans will remain locked in a state of prolonged displacement.

AI Insight: Column chart of solutions for forcibly displaced Afghans by year, where the number of solutions has sharply decreased from a peak in 2021 to 2024., This column chart displays the trend in durable solutions for forcibly displaced people from Afghanistan for the years 2021 through 2024. The data reveals a significant and continuous decline in the number of solutions implemented over this period. In 2021, the number of solutions was at its peak, with a maximum value of 791,000. This figure dropped dramatically in 2022 to a maximum of 236,166. The downward trend continued sharply into 2023, with the maximum falling to 31,605. As of 2024, the number has further decreased to 22,687. The data suggests a critical reduction in pathways to long-term safety and stability, such as repatriation or resettlement, for displaced Afghans in recent years.

AI Insight: Line chart of refugee recognitions versus available solutions for Afghanistan from 2019 to 2025, where the number of recognitions consistently and significantly outpaces the near-zero number of available solutions., This time-series line chart compares the number of refugee recognitions with the number of durable solutions available for individuals from Afghanistan for the period 2019-2025. The x-axis represents the year, and the y-axis represents the number of individuals.

Two key trends are visualized: 1. Refugee Recognitions (blue line): This metric shows variability over the period. It was 0 in 2019, peaked at 61 in 2020, decreased to 43 in 2022, and dropped to 5 in 2023. Data for 2021 and 2024 is noted as missing in the statistical profile. The value is 0 for 2025. 2. Solutions (green line): This metric is consistently low. For all years where data is available (2021 through 2025), the number of solutions is zero. Data for 2019 and 2020 is unavailable.

The most significant insight is the substantial gap between the number of people being recognized as refugees and the lack of corresponding durable solutions. The shaded area between the two lines visually represents this ‘solutions gap’, highlighting that while protection needs are being formally acknowledged, pathways to permanent solutions like resettlement, local integration, or voluntary repatriation are not materializing for this population.